NFL Football: San Francisco 49ers VS Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

by James Q

Thursday, Dec 29, 2022

NFL Football: San Francisco 49ers VS Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

 
Game Time: 4:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 1st, 2023
Venue:  Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Where to Watch:  FOX

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

FanDuel:  49ers -9.5, O/U 41.5
BetMGM:  49ers -9.5, O/U 41.5
PointsBet:  49ers -9.5, O/U 41.5

Season Record

49ers: 11-4, 1st place NFC West
Raiders: 6-9, 3rd place AFC West

An NFL matchup between the best of the NFC West… and a very bad team in the AFC West.  Both teams have awkward quarterback situations. The San Francisco 49ers have the best defense in the NFL… They also have an offense loaded with weapons.  Their struggle this season has been the roller coaster of the QB spot.  They started with Trey Lance, the rookie they traded up to get, and Trey did not look good.  It didn’t last long as Trey broke his ankle and was ruled out for the season.  The 49ers then moved on to QB Jimmy Garappollo… they QB that had the starting job for several years but was injury prone… Jimmy looked and played good all season long… until he got injured. With Jimmy out for the rest of the season… the 49ers moved onto rookie Brock Purdy… The LAST pick in the entire draft last season.  Brock is now in charge of driving a Ferrari… and making absolutely certain he puts no scratches on it. He has the chance to be the coolest guy in town if he simply plays a gentle brand of mistake free football.  Brock’s first NFL start involved becoming the only rookie in his first start to ever beat (out of 12) QB Tom Brady in a regular season game.  He is on his way.  The Las Vegas Raiders have had QB Derek Carr in the fold for 9 seasons… in that time Derek has had 6 different head coaches… and been mired in a rebuild that involved 4 of their last 6 first round picks getting cut from the team for a variety of reasons.  The Raiders are bad and have decided to bench Derek Carr… if only so they can cut him and save almost 30 million dollars next season.  That is a good reason to cut him… sure… but how do they move on?  The Raiders answer is to start playing QB Jarrett Stidham.  Jarret played college ball at Baylor and Auburn and was selected by the New England Patriots in the 4th round of the 2019 draft.  Head Coach Josh McDaniels gets to see how Jarrett will do in game action… and WE all can watch McDaniels pass the buck form his bad coaching this season.

The San Francisco 49ers are on an 8 game winning streak… five with Jimmy G as the quarterback and now 3 with Brock Purdy as quarterback. In their last game the beat the Washington Commanders 37-20… getting 15 completions out of 22 attempts for 234 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT from Brock.  The vast majority of receiving yards were directed toward TE George Kittle who had both TDs and 120 yards in the passing game on SIX catches.  RBs McCloud and McCaffrey each scampered for a TD.  The defense spent the day toying with the Commanders… and after a lost fumble the Commanders were forced to bench Heineke in favor of Carson Wentz… who played about the same as Heinecke did.

The Las Vegas Raiders have good offensive numbers AND some of the worst defensive numbers.  Derek Carr is not a Champion quarterback and moving on from him is not a bad idea… However, how on earth are they going to keep up the offensive numbers? They are 12th in scoring, 14th in yards, 13th in passing yards, 15th in rushing yards…. Or is that the point?... Is the season over and they are just going to go through the motions?.  This Raiders team has won 4 of their last 6 games.  They have played well whenever Carr has played well.  But we will never know because the White flag of surrender has been thrown. There is some speculation that WR DeVante Adams will demand a trade at the same time RB Josh Jacobs walks in free agency.  That all might be a good thing for Vegas ultimately… but none of it will be good for Sunday against the 49ers.

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San Francisco 49ers VS Las Vegas Raiders Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

SF: 11-4, 10-5 ATS, 7-8 P/U, 3-3 on the road.
LV 6-9, 7-8 ATS, 4-2 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The 49ers are 8th in scoring with 25 points per game, 9th in total yards with 363.4 per game, 12th in passing yards with 228.7 per game, and 9th in rushing yards with 134.7 per game.

The Raiders are 12th in scoring with 23.2 points per game, 14th in total yards with 347.6 per game, 13th in passing yards with 225.9 per game, and 15th in rushing yards with 121.7 per game.

Defensive Analysis

The 49ers defense is 1st in total yards with 290.3 allowed per game, 16th in passing yards with 215.3 per game allowed, 1st in defense of rushing yards with 75 per game allowed, and 1st in points with ONLY 15.3 per game allowed.

The Raiders defense is 25th in total yards with 360.9 per game allowed, 27th in passing yards with 244.3 per game allowed, 15th in rushing yards with 116.6 per game allowed, and 24th in points with 23.3 per game allowed. 

San Francisco 49ers VS Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, January 1st is… 49ers 28 - Raiders 13
 
The 49ers will cover.  Bet on the 49ers.  9.5 is a huge spread for most games and in most 9.5 spreads it is probably a good idea to go the other way.  BUT the Raiders are spent.  The Raiders have given up the only thing they had going for them which is the passing game. Derek’s 3522 passing yards over 15 games will not even be in the stadium.  DaVante Adams and his 1290 receiving yards will be checked out mentally… The Raiders don’t stand a chance and I don’t even believe the 13 points I have predicted they MIGHT get.  Bet on the 49ers.
 
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NFL Betting Trends

The 49ers are 5-2 ATS versus Raiders since 1992.
The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in games where the total is 35.5 to 42 points this season.
The Raiders are 4-2 ATS in home games this season.

Starting Lineups

49ers: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Jauan Jennings, TE Tyler Kroft, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Burford, RT Mike McGlinchey

Raiders: QB Jarrett Stidham, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Mack Hollins, WR Davante Adams, TE Darren Waller, TE Foster Moreau, LT Kolton Miller, LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James, RG Alex Bars, RT Jermaine Eluemunor

Weather Forecast

Scattered Showers, 58*, Humidity 39%, wind 18 mph…. BUT thankfully this stadium has a ROOF!  Take notice, Buffalo.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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