NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers VS Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Odds and Preview - 11/28/2022

 

Game Time: 8:20 PM ET,  Monday, November 28th, 2022

Venue:  Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Where to Watch: ESPN,  ESPN2, ESPN Deportes

FanDuel:  Colts -2.5; O/U 39.5

BetMGM:  Colts -2.5; O/U 39

PointsBet:  Colts -2.5; O/U 39

Steelers: 3-7, 4th place AFC North

Colts: 4-6, 2nd place AFC South

A Monday Night Football AFC matchup… That is a heck of a stinker.  Both teams are going nowhere fast.  Both teams are not going to be in the postseason conversion unless that conversation takes place in an insane asylum.  However the game does have value. The value is in turning this 2.5 point coin flip into a certain Great Betting Opportunity.  The numbers, the injury list, and the weather will show us the way!

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost 7 of their 10 games on the season so far.  Any team with only 3 wins at this point of the season is out of it.  There are 7 games left so a win streak is not impossible to think of… but unlikely considering the roster and how it has been performing.  The Steelers are near last in most offensive and defensive categories… a wicked recipe for losing.  The Steelers have a major hangover from the Ben Rothlisburger years.  They are proof that if a franchise has a top-level quarterback for longer than a decade, won a Super Bowl or two with that guy and then slowly regressed… management MUST ignore the fans and move on sooner than later.  If you hold on for too long… the unprepared reality of life without a franchise quarterback will hit very hard.  They drafted QB Kenny Pickett out of Pitt…. The Steelers were very familiar with Pickett (and his small hands) as he practiced for and played his college games in the Steelers practice Field AND Steelers stadium.  The fans already accepted Kenny as a possible savior… and he may have been the wrong choice they were forced into.  Kenny is new to the NFL and may grow… but they will need a few more faces in the quarterback room to compare him to.  The Steelers lost their last game to the Cincinnati Bengals 37-30.  It was a “good loss” as it was Pittsburgh’s highest scoring game all season.  QB Kenny Pickett went 25 of 42 passing for 1 TD, 0 INT.  RB Najee Harris ran the ball 20 times for 90 yards and 2 TDs. Ultimately the game became a track meet as Bengals QB Joe Burrow outpaced them with 355 passing yards and 4 TDs 2 INTs.  Those interceptions could have helped the Steelers get the win but ultimately they weren’t enough. Still we saw the Steelers score lots of points which is a big improvement.

The Indianapolis Colts fired their head coach Frank Reich after a 3-5 start… They installed (the controversial choice) broadcaster and former Colts player Jeff Saturday as the interim coach and he immediately won his first game.  A lot of people firmly believe that Colts owner Jim Irsay is CRAZY… just because the guy acts erratically and has had a slew of personal problems.  But, for at least 1 game, an irrational Irsay decision led to a Colts win.  Jim Irsay may be a little erratic but he gets solid street cred for continuing to snipe at worthless Commanders owner Dan Snyder.  The Colts followed that win over the Raiders with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in their last game 17-16.  This was also a “good loss”.  For a below .500 team with an interim coach to take the league’s first place team to a “down to the wire” 1 point finish?... And a win ATS.  Shows that the team has the talent and drive to compete with anyone.  In the loss Colts quarterback Matt Ryan went 23 of 32 for 213 yards 0 TDs and 0 INTs.  The action for the Colts came in the running game and the Defense. RB Jonathan Taylor had 22 carries for 84 yards with 1 TD. The Colts defense recorded 3 sacks on Burrow. 

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Pitt: 3-7, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U, 1-4 on the road.

IND: 4-6-1, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U, 2-3 at home.

The Steelers are 28th in scoring with 17 points per game, 28th in total yards with 312.2 per game, 24th in passing yards with 204.4 per game, 22nd in rushing yards with 107.8 per game.

The Colts are 31st in scoring with 15.7 points per game, 19th in total yards with 321.4 per game, 17th in passing yards with 222.6 per game, 26th in rushing yards with 98.7 per game.

The Steelers defense is 28th in defense of total yards with 375.5 per game, 31st in defense of passing yards with 272.1 per game, 7th in defense of rushing yards with 103.4 per game, 26th in points scored with 24.4 per game.

The Colts defense is 4th in defense of total yards with 307.6 per game, 6th in defense of passing yards with 194.2 per game, 12th in defense of rushing yards with 113.5 per game, and 11th in defense of points by allowing only 20 per game.

Our prediction for Monday, November 28th is…. Colts 27 - Steelers 22

 

The Colts defense is ranked from above average to top-five in every major defensive statistical category.  The defense is solid which is why Jim Irsay was so irritated by Frank Reich’s offensive struggles.  Bet on the Colts.

 

More importantly, bet on the OVER.  Vegas has set the O/U number so low that it begs a bet the other direction… especially the week after the Steelers scored 30 points in a game. Plus no matter what struggles the Colts can dream up offensively?… they will be going against a Walking Dead Steelers defense.  

 

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The Steelers are 8-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.

The Colts are 2 Over and 9 Under in all games this season.

The Colts are 3-2 ATS against the Steelers at Indianapolis since 1992.

Steelers: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Najee Harris, FB Derek Watt, WR George Pickens, WR Diontae Johnson, TE Zach Gentry, LT Dan Moore JR, LG Kevin Dotson, C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, RT Chukwuma Okorafor

Colts: QB Matt Ryan, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Parris Campbell, WR Michael Pittman JR, TE Nikola Kalinic, TE Mo Alie-Cox, LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, RT Braden Smith

Cloudy, 47*, Humidity 75%, wind 7 MPH