NFL Football: New Orleans Saints VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/05/2022

 

Game Time: 8:15 PM ET,  Monday, December 5th, 2022

Venue:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN Deportes

FanDuel:  Bucs -3.5; O/U 40.5

BetMGM:   Bucs -3.5; O/U 40.5

PointsBet:   Bucs -3.5; O/U 40.5

Saints: 4-8, 4th place NFC South

Buccaneers: 5-6, 1st place NFC South

An NFC South matchup between the best and the worst except there is a twist!  The NFC South is such a bad division that if the worst wins?… These two teams will be a bye week away from being tied in the standings!  With 5-6 games left to play in the season?… any NFC South team could still win the division!  This is simultaneously the worst game on the Monday Night Football schedule and the oddly most impactful for the playoffs!  Rarely do we get tense action like this! Any team could have this division… Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, Saints… it’s all a dumpster fire toss up!  The New Orleans Saints have struggled all season from simply not having competent quarterback play… They have multiple guys, yet none of those guys strike fear into anyone else.  The Bucs have the greatest quarterback of all time… the single best, unanimous, first ballot, hall of famer the NFL has ever produced… and he has simply not been winning.  Maybe Tom Brady has fallen off the cliff?... Maybe the Bucs team has fallen off that cliff… Maybe there is no cliff at all… just bad play.  The great betting opportunity in this battle will be found in the numbers and knowing the NFC South?… the luck. 

The New Orleans Saints are supposed to be making vacation plans for the offseason.  They are that bad.  They are supposed to be calling their agents and asking about the likelihood of getting a tryout with the Jets next season. They only have 4 wins!  But they are only 1 ½ games behind first place with 5 games left to play. If they win 3 straight? Who knows where they will be? The Saints lost their last game to the San Francisco 49ers 13-0.  That is not as sad as it looks… It means the defense played really well against a really good team!  In the loss QB Andy Dalton completed 18 of 29 passes for 204 yards. No Saint scored any points… The rushing game was absent.  The score was so low… 13-0.  It’s as if the 2 fumbles by RB Alvin Kamara could have been wiped away… they didn’t affect the game.  Truth is the Saints defense was awesome… They held a 49ers offense who averages 22.6 points per game… to just 13… while getting no hello from their own offense.  Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill is done.  He flat out is not working in the trick game any longer AND they aren’t using him as a runner or tight end to any effect either.  It was fun while it lasted.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost their last game to the Cleveland Browns 23-17 in overtime.  In the loss QB Tom Brady completed 29 of 43 passes for 246 yards, 2TDs and 0 INTs.  He pouted and shouted… and everyone noticed that he is very old and toothless.  Tom is the greatest.. No one can take that away from him… Tom may even play next season… but this season there has been no magic.  He lost a game to Browns backup QB Jacoby Brissett because the Browns defense is simply better than the Bucs defense… is the Saints?

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NO: 4-8, 4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U, 1-4 on the road.

TB: 5-6, 3-7-1 ATS, 2-9 O/U, 2-3 in home games.

The Saints are 21st in scoring with 20.8 points per game, 5th in total yards with 347.2 per game, 11th in passing yards with 234.1 per game, 22nd in rushing yards with 113.2 per game.

The Bucs are 27th in scoring with 18.2 points per game, 23rd in total yards with 339.1 per game, 5th in passing yards with 266.1 per game, 5th in passing yards with 266.1 per game, 32nd in rushing yards with 73 per game.

The Saints defense is 11th in defense of total yards with 326.4 allowed per game, 7th in defense of passing yards with 197.3 allowed per game, 22nd in defense of rushing yards with 129.1 per game allowed, 20th in defense of points with 23.3 per game.

The Bucs defense is 9th in defense of total yards with 315.2 allowed per game, 6th in defense of passing yards with 192 per game allowed, 20th in defense of rushing yards with 123.2 allowed per game, and 7th in defense of points scored with 18.5 per game.

Our prediction for Monday, December 5th is…. Saints 22 - Bucs 17

 

That’s right, Bet the Saints.  Oddly the Saints have had a terrible season with a fair amount of good stats… while the Bucs have had a bad season with a fair amount of bad stats.. Why?... Because they both compiled those numbers in the NFC South.  The truth is we don’t know anyone’s real stats in the NFC South.  If either of these teams played in the NFC East?... They would have only half the wins and 75% the stats.  So… the worthwhile bet is to put some points in your pocket and expect the Saints offense to play better than they did last week while the Saints defense will get up for Tom Brady.

 

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The Saints are 2-0 ATS versus the Bucs in Tampa the last 3 seasons.

The Saints are 14-8 ATS versus Tampa since 1992.

The Bucs are 3-7 ATS as a favorite this season.

Saints: QB Andy Dalton, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Chris Olave, TE Taysom Hill, TE Juwan Johnson, LT James Hurst, LG Andrus Peat, C Josh Andrews, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Ryan Ramczyk

Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady, RB Rachaad White, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, TE Ko Kieft, OT Josh Wells, LT Donovan Smith, LG Nick Leverett, C Robert Hainsey, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tristan Wirfs

Mostly Sunny, Humidity 65%, wind 4 mph… 80*.  Hot and sunny… Tampa in the winter.