NFL Football: New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/02/2022

 

Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 2nd, 2022

Venue:  Lambeau Field. Green Bay, Wisconsin

Where to Watch: CBS

 

DraftKings:  Spread:  Patriots +9, Packers -9; O/U 40.5

BetMGM:  Spread:  

PointsBet:  Spread:  

 

Patriots: 1-2, tied for last place (with the Jets) AFC East

Packers: 2-1 tied for first place NFC North

The spread is HUGE (9 points) and the O/U number is small (40.5 points TOTAL).  Vegas is telling you that they believe the Packers will win a low scoring game by lots of points.  It seems like a very specific target to hit.  I mean if the Packers are going to cover a 9 point spread while at the same time the Over isn’t immediately bet… Vegas thinks the Patriots offense has absolutely nothing to offer.  If the Patriots score just their low average of 17 points… the Packers would have to score 27 to win a Packers bet…. That total would be 44.  An easy OVER.  Vegas thinks the Patriots will not come close to their own average in order to fit the Packers plus 9 and avoid the automatic OVER.  All the while Green Bay is only averaging 16 points a game themselves!   It’s head-ache inducing stuff.  Let’s check the numbers and see if we can’t make sense of this all.

The New England Patriots have Mac Jones at quarterback… and that is not great.  An even worse prospect is that Mac is listed as Doubtful for Sunday with a high ankle sprain. That leaves veteran Patriots backup QB Brian Hoyer.  Brian is still younger than Packers QB Aaron Rogers… but nowhere near as experienced or skilled or celebrated, or battle tested, or Hall of Fame bound.  In his 14th season as an NFL quarterback Brian has never made a real case to ever be taken seriously as any team’s starting quarterback.  Of course that may help when replacing Mac Jones… No expectations… years of experience… no excuse to not let it fly.  The Patriots have also listed 9 other starters as Quest… which means they will get some time on the training table and ultimately play.  Brian will get an assist from a Bill Belichick defense that is once again top-ten in defending passing yards and 11th overall in defending total yards.  Remember with a 9 point spread we just have to figure out if the Patriots will be lost in the woods or hanging in there?

The Green Bay Packers have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.  I shouldn’t have to sing his praises… but the guy can play.  The story of the Packers this season is that Aaron Rodgers is not all that comfortable with his receivers.  Aaron’s 50 million dollars a season has sapped the roster if real weapons.  His favorite target WR DeVontae Adams up and left for Las Vegas in the offseason (though people keep saying the Packers offered to pay him)... and now Aaron Rodgers has a real difficult time hiding his disgust with two unheralded rookies dropping passes and breaking the wrong way on routes.  This QB disgust has benefitted RB Aaron Jones who is having a nice early season so far.  The Green Bay defense is GOOD… In fact they are 6th in the league against the Pass, but only 18th against the run… That should be music to the patriots ears as they will be running the ball more.

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NE: 1-2, 0-2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U, 1-1 on the road.

GB: 2-1, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U, 1-0 in home games.

 

The Patriots came out of Week 3 25th in the league in scoring with 16.7 points per game, 10th in yards per game with 364.7 per game, 11th in passing yards with 249 per game, and 13th in rushing yards with 115.7 per game.

The Packers came out of Week 3 27th in scoring with 16 points per game, 12th in yards per game with 355.7, 19th in passing yards with 228.7 per game, and 9th in rushing yards with 127 per game.

The Patriots defense came out of Week 3 11th in defending total yards with 314.7 per game, 8th in defending passing yards with 200 per game, 19th in deafening rushing yards with 114.7 per game, and 22nd in defending points scored with 23.7 per game.

The Packers defense came out of Week 3 6th in total yards defended with 302.7 per game, 7th in passing yards defended with 189.3 per game, 18th in rushing yards defended with 113.3 per game, and 6th in points scored with 15 per game.  

Our Prediction for the Sunday, October 2nd game is… Packers 30 - Patriots 12

 

The bet here is obvious.  Bet the OVER.  At 40.5 points Vegas is betting that the Packers will score to cover 9 points while the Patriots will simply not score.  To get there however you have to imagine that the greatest football coach of the last two decades simply can not come out of this game with at least a field goal per quarter.  Especially since Brian Hoyer will be playing a conservative offense that the Packers defense has no way of preparing for because Hoyer simply does not play often enough to get real game tape.  I see either the Packers blowing the Patriots out because Rodgers takes this (supposedly easy) game as an opportunity to at least try his rookie wide receivers again… OR the Patriots show up with a few fluke ideas to get Hoyer into good positions to score…. Either way… If it is 35 - 7, 30-12, 24-21… they all come out with an OVER.

 

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The Patriots are 94-58 ATS as an underdog since 1992.

The Patriots are 12-4 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

The Packers are 11-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 3 seasons.

 

Patriots: QB Mac Jones Doubt ** This could be a benefit.  Mac is not long for this job.  Maybe it’s time for the Patriots brass to see someone else either succeed or equally struggle in the same job.  The result will be an intense draft study.. To replace Mac.

Packers: WR Sammy Watkins Out ** This is a big one.  Sammy was brought here to fill Adams’s shoes.  He will not do it this week, this month, or this year.  The major problem the Packers have is that Jordan Love simply does not catch passes, or block in the backfield, or even ever get off the bench… imagine if Jordan Love’s name was Justin Jefferson?

 

The only player to watch in this game is Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.  This is the game where he either declares that his offseason drug use has solved his prima donna attitude toward young wide receivers and the fear of throwing an interception that might blow his numbers… or it hasn’t.

Patriots: QB Mac Jones, RB Damien Harris, WE DeVante Parker, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hudson Henry, TE Trent Brown, LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Mike Onwenu, RT Isaiah Wynn

Packers: QN Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Robert Tonyan, TE Mercedes Lewis, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Jon Runyon, C Josh Myers, RG Royce Newman, RT Elgton Jenkins

 

Patriots: Bill Belichick

Packers: Matt La Fleur

 

Partly Cloudy, 63*, Humidity 70%.  Winter is coming in Green bay… but this early in fall you actually get perfect football weather.