NFL Football: New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/08/2023

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 8th, 2023

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, New York

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel: Bills -7, O/U 42.5

BetMGM:  Bills -7, O/U 42.5

PointsBet:  N/A

Patriots: 8-8, 2nd place AFC East

Bills: 12-3, 1st place AFC East

An AFC East battle… that will be difficult to say the least.  All the other stuff aside… The Buffalo Bills will be taking the field for the first time since their teammate Damar Hamlin suffered Cardiac Arrest on the field, early in the Cincinnati game, after a routine hit.  They game was suspended and then the league office has decided… or is leaning toward simply canceling it altogether. The Bills and the Begals will go into the postseason with one less game on the tally.  Which is fine.  Taking the field should be hard… and dumb people will call to use the incident as a rallying cry.  The truth is this is a very dangerous sport played by actual people.  Emotions will have to be put aside and jobs will have to be done.  But it will still be tough.  This game between the Patriots and Bills will most likely be just another day in the NFL… and as such we can predict it and bet on it.  The great betting opportunity here will be found among the numbers. Let’s check them and make a wager… and remember always that this is football among friends. The Patriots must “win” to be in the playoffs… or they will have to rely on an unlikely multitude of other teams (upsets) to lose to get in.  The Bills must win to retain a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC in the event that the Chiefs lose… and/or the Bengals game is made up later.

The New England Patriots have won 5 of their last 10 games.  Par for the course as they come into the 17th and final game at 8-8.  A win and they are in the playoffs.  They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 23-21…a loss ATS… In fact the Patriots ve lost ATS in 5 of their last 6 games. In the win over the Dolphins, QB Mac Jones completed 20 of 33 passes for 203 yards and 2 TD.  There is growing sentiment that Mac is not the Patriots QB of the future as his play is generally solid and never spectacular.  The Patriots run game was quiet.  They got the win because of the Interception by Patriots defender Kyle Dugger who scored on the play.

The Buffalo Bills have spent the week worried for their friend and teammate Damar.  They did not finish the Cincinnati game.. So references to record and stats do not include that game of course.  They are on a 6-game winning streak… going 3-3 ATS in the games prior to the Bengals game.  They beat the Patriots 24-10 back on December 1st… and have won every game played since.

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NE: 8-8, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 4-4 in road games.

BUF: 12-3, 7-7-1 ATS, 5-10 O/U, 5-1 in home games.

The Patriots are 17th in scoring with 21.3 points per game, 26th in total yards with 312.9 per game, 21st in passing yards with 206.3 per game, and 23rd in rushing yards with 106.6 per game.

The Bills are 4th in scoring with 28 points per game, 4th in total yards with 402.3 per game, 6th in passing yards with 259.5 per game, and 7th in rushing yards with 142.8 per game.

The Patriots defense is 8th in total yards with 321.7 per game allowed, 16th in passing with 215.3 per game allowed, 6th in rushing yards with 106.4 per game allowed, and 5th in points with 19.5 per game allowed.

The Bills defense is 5th in total yards with 317.7 per game allowed, 14th in passing yards with 213.3 per game allowed, 4th in rushing yards with 104.4 per game allowed, and 2nd in points  with 17.5 per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 8th is…  Bills 28 - Patriots 13

 

Bet on the Bills.  We have no reason to believe the outcome would be any different from the last Bills win over the Patriots.  The Patriots have not improved in any statistical category since… while the Bills kept posting big numbers on offense and big numbers on defense.

 

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The Patriots are 20-9 ATS versus Buffalo since 1992.

The Patriots are 1-6 ATS trying to avenge same season losses the last 3 seasons.

The Bills are 11-3 ATS after a non-conference game the last 3 seasons.

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB David Singletary, FB Reggie Gilliam, WR Gabe Davis, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox, LT Dion Dawkins, LGF Roger Saffold, C Ryan Bates, RG Greg Van Roten, RT Spencer Brown

Patriots: QB Mac Jones, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Tyquan Thornton, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry, LT Trent Brown, C David Andrews, RG Mike Onwenu, RT Conor McDermott

Partly Cloudy, 34*, Humidity 69%, wind 6 mph.