NFL Football: Minnesota Vikings VS Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

 

Game Time: 4:25 PM ET,  Sunday, January 1st, 2023

Venue:  Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Packers -3, O/U 48.5

BetMGM:  Packers -3, O/U 48

PointsBet:  Packers -3.5, O/U 48

Vikings: 12-3, 1st place NFC North

Packers: 7-8, 3rd place NFC North

The world has gone crazy!  An NFL battle of NFC North teams… specifically the best NFC North teams versus the 3rd place NFC North team.  The World has gone crazy because the worse team… the one with the losing record instead of the dominant record is favored by -3.5 just because they are at home.. And maybe because they have a petulant man-child as their Quarterback.  Occasionally Vegas makes these mistakes.  They set the line to get everyone betting one way or another… they also set the line to simply cater to a fanbase that frequently bets their home team… like money is not as important as city pride… it is way more important by the way.  The Minnesota Vikings are 12-3… They have spent all season long proving that they are never ever out of a game.  They can come back in the second half, the 4th quarter, the last possession drive… all of it.  They have done it all. Big comebacks, small comebacks, last second wins… final play wins… all of it.  They are 6-8-1 ATS but 12-3 on the season… they can certainly win close games.  The Green Bay Packers have been a total disappointment this season and they hope to make up for it with a strong postseason performance… BTW the Packers hope to get in the postseason by winning their last 2 games… plus getting a loss from the Commanders AND needing a 2 straight losses from the New York Giants!  Ha!... Yeah stranger things have happened… but not very often.

The Minnesota Vikings have won 4 of their last 5 games.  Their lone loss over that stretch was to the Detroit Lions who have a much better offense than the Packers.  The Vikings even though winning have not covered a lot of spreads.  They are 2-3 ATS during that same 5 game stretch.  But winning is winning.  Their last win actually helped the Packers when the Vikings beat the New York Giants 27-24 for a loss ATS.  In that game QB Kirk Cousins completed 34 of 48 passes for 199 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs… for a quarterback who is often not on any of the big time lists… Kirk keeps winning.  See Kirk has a WR named Justin Jefferson who should be the NFL’s MVP this season.  Justin only went for 133 yards on 12 catches with 1 TD.  TE TJ Hockenstein caught 13 passes for 109 yards with 2 TDs.  A field goal and the job was done.  RThe Vikings defense is not great… in fact not even good.  Yet when the game is on the line late… they hold while the offense breaks the opposition.

The Green Bay Packers are on a 3-game winning streak… if not?.. They would not be in any discussion for the postseason.  The start of the season was terrible for this squad. They had to deal with a QB that was suffering from a drug addled brain and simply could not connect with his rookie wide receivers… the drug he took in the offseason made him a worse teammate, worse person, worse leader, and most likely a worse lover. It has had time to work through his system and now Aaron Rodgers is back among the world of the living.  They last beat the Miami Dolphins 26 to 20… In that game QB Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 38 passes fro 238 yards 1 TD and 1 INT.  His defense bailed him out by scooping a fumble… and holding an already concussed, yet still playing, Tua Tagovailoa to 310 passing yards with 3 INTs… those three INTs made the game easier by far and the Packers still only won by 6 points.

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MIN: 12-3, 6-8-1 ATS, 10-5 O/U, 3-2 on the road.

GBP: 7-8, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 O/U, 4-2 in home games

The Vikings are 7th in scoring with 25.2 points per game, 12th in total yards with 354.5 per game, 6th in passing yards with 259.9 per game, and 28th in rushing yards with 94.5 per game.

The Packers are 18th in scoring with 20.9 per game, 16th in total yards with 342.6 per game, 17th in passing yards with 219.5 per game, and 14th in rushing yards with 123.1 per game.

The Vikings defense is 31st in total yards with 402.3 allowed per game, 32nd (last in passing yards with 281.5 per game allowed, 19th in rushing yards with 120.8 per game allowed, and 28th in points allowed with 24.9 per game.

The Packers defense is 17th in total yards with 336.8 per game allowed, 3rd in passing yards with 192.4 per game allowed, 27th in rushing yards with 144.4 per game allowed, and 17th in points with 22.3 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 1st is… Vikings 28 - Packers 24

 

Bet on the Vikings.  The Vikings defense is awful… in fact it is terrible.  Yet the Vikings are 12-3… the winning comes from the much better offense.  A case can also be made that the Vikings have a great defense if you only count 4th quarter numbers.  The Viking coaches will have to find someone on the roster who can fill a defensive weakness… and this offseason they will have to spend 7 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball only… Still… The Viking will kill the Packers postseason dreams.  That much we do know.

 

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The Vikings are 22 OVER and 8 UNDER in games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points the last 3 seasons.

The Packers are 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Packers are 224-161 ATS on grass fields since 1992.

Vikings: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen, TE Johnny Mundt, TE TJ Hockenstein, LT Christian Darrisaw, LG Ezra Cleveland, C Austinn Schlottmann, RG Ed Ingram, RT Brian O’Neill 

Mostly Cloudy, 37*, Humidity 80%... any advantage you think the Packers may have because of the blistering cold weather is moot… The Packers most important receivers are rookies who also must get used to the dreck that passes for weather in Wisconsin.