NFL Football: Miami Dolphins VS San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/04/2022

 

Game Time: 4:00 PM ET,  Sunday, December 4th, 2022

Venue:  Levi’s Stadium, Santra Clara, California

Where to Watch: FOX

FanDuel:  49ers -3.5, O/U 46.5

BetMGM:  49ers -4, O/U 46.5

PointsBet:  49ers -4, O/U 46.5

Dolphins: 8-3, 1st place AFC East

49ers: 7-4, 1st place NFC West

An NFL inter-conference battle between two very high quality teams.  Both teams have had quarterback trouble this season.  The Dolphins troubles came in the form of a concussion to QB Tua Tagovailoa that caused him to miss a few games and will definitely cause the league to review the policies around which players MUST come out if they display “wobbly” standings and walking after a hit.  The 49ers QB troubles started at the end of last season when they dropped QB Jimmy Garoppolo in favor of young QB Trey Lance who they traded for the right to draft a year earlier… Trey was not an improvement.  Then after being not an improvement Trey broke his ankle in Game 2… In comes Jimmy G to the rescue!  Jimmy makes a lot less money than he would have if the 49ers had simply kept him?... But he also gets to drive the Ferrari that is the 49ers roster AND will be a true free agent at the end of the season.  The true Great Betting Opportunity in this matchup will be found in a comparison of defenses, especially pass rushes.  Let’s check the numbers and see if the points spread stands up to scrutiny.

The Miami Dolphins are on a 5-game winning streak.  They have looked tough and talented since Tua’s triumphant return.  However it is important to not exactly who the Dolphins beat during that 5-game stretch… Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, Texans… not exactly a murderers row.  It is the sort of stretch against bad teams that can easily fool fans into thinking their team is really good.  While no team gets to pick their schedule (that comes down from the league)... if they could?… They all would have opted for these five terrible teams in a row.  QB Tua Tagovailoa is blistering the pass game with 2564 passing yards on the season… a season where he missed 2 ½ games.  WR Tyreek Hill was a big investment in the offseason that is paying big dividends… he personally has pulled in 1233 receiving yards and 4 TDs.  For all the bad teams they have played as of late… It is important to note that this Dolphins squad was the first to beat the Buffalo Bills this season and that was in Buffalo.  It is also important to note that the Miami Injury list is deep and growing.

The San Francisco 49ers are on a 4-game winning streak themselves. The last team they lost to was the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 7.  QB Jimmy G has an embarrassment of riches in the offensive weapon category: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle… The Dolphins defense will have to pick their poison knowing they won’t shut them ALL down.  The Magic of the 49ers success however may just be in that they have the best defense in the league.  They are 1st in defending against points and total yards… the D-line is loaded with Nick Bosa and his 11 ½ sacks leading the way… The DBs are loaded as well with support from SS Talanoa Hufanga who has 4 INTs this season so far.  The 49ers will give the Dolphins headaches on both sides of the ball.

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MIA: 8-3, 6-5, 5-6 O/U, 3-2 on the road.

SF4: 7-4, 5-6 ATS, O/U 4-7, 4-1 in home games.

The Dolphins are 6th in scoring with 25.6 points per game, 3rd in total yards with 386.7 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 291.9 per game, and 28th in rushing yards with 94.8 per game.

The 49ers are 15th in scoring with 22.6 points per game, 13th in total yards with 358.5 per game, 10th in passing yards with 234.5 per game, 11th in rushing yards with 124.4 per game.

The Dolphins defense is 17th in defense of total yards with 343.4 per game, 22nd in defense of passing yards with 233.8 per game allowed, 10th in defense of rushing yards with 109.5 allowed per game, and 19th in defense of points with 23.3 allowed per game.

The 49ers defense is 1st in defense of total yards with 281.7 allowed per game, 11th in defense of passing yards with 202.3 per game allowed, 1st in defense of rushing yards with 79.5 allowed per game, and 1st in defense of points with 15.7 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 4th is…. 49ers 27 - Dolphins 24

 

Bet on the Dolphins.  The Dolphins have a very good chance at winning this game… and if they don’t you will get to hold onto 4 points.  The Dolphins have top offensive numbers even though they hit a hard bump in the road when Tua missed the better part of 3 games.  Bettors will be blinded by the 49ers defense but the NFL is an offensive league in the regular season and the Dolphins are certainly used to winning shootouts.

 

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Miami is 1-7 ATS in road games where the total is 45.5 to 49 the last 3 seasons.

The 49ers are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

The Dolphins are 1-0 ATS versus San Fran in San Fran the last 3 seasons.

Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jeff Wilson JR, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Trent Sherfield, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead, LG Robert Jones, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Austin Jackson

49ers: QB Jimmy Garappolo, RB Christian McCaffrey, FB Kyle Juszcyk, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Burford, RT Mike McGlinchey

Showers, Humidity 82%, Wind 12 mph, 56*... rainy with a slight chill.