NFL Football: Miami Dolphins VS Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/11/2022

 

Game Time: 8:25 PM ET,  Sunday, December 11th, 2022

Venue:  SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: NBC

FanDuel:  Dolphins -3.5, O/U 52.5

BetMGM:  Dolphins -3.5, O/U 52.5

PointsBet:  Dolphins -3.5, O/U 52.5

Dolphins: 8-4, 2nd place AFC East

Chargers: 6-6, 2n place AFC West

An AFC battle of real seriousness.  It is East vs West.  It is young stud quarterback VS young stud quarterback.  It is a loaded roster against… an injured roster?  The Miami Dolphins have been a very serious success story this season. They finished a several season roster build… They loaded the defense… they drafted well… and they added an offseason weapon that just may be the fastest WR in the league and that had been KC’s Patrick Mahomes best target.  The whipped cream on top of the Sundae is that QB Tua Tagovailoa has finally showed the talent that made him the #1 pick in the draft 3 seasons ago. Tua can play… especially with a great roster.  The Dolphins took some lumps this season that mostly coincided with actual injury lumps taken by Tua.  The Los Angeles Chargers have been a weird “watched pot, never boils” metaphor for the last few years.  They have the league’s best young quarterback not named Burrow, Allen or Hurtz.  Big kid, big arm… and supposedly a loaded roster… but that loaded roster has mostly loaded the injury list.  Not just this year but for several years dating back through multiple quality quarterbacks.  Everyone always tell me how stacked the Chargers are and they always come up short.  Surely they will push through the resistance one of these years? Could you imagine if WR Mike Williams and LB Joey Bosa.. not to mention a dozen other guys simply made it through a full season healthy with QB Justin Herbert in his youth and at the height of his abilities?  The great betting opportunity will be determined by the numbers… let’s take a look.

The Miami Dolphins snapped a 5-game winning streak with a 33-17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers last time they played.  It was a hard hit to the system as Tua had the team rolling.  There is little shame to it since the San Francisco 49ers have the most stacked roster in the NFL among all the non-quarterback players. The problem is that the Dolphins defense should have been able to rattle the last pick of the NFL draft QB Brock Purdy who is at QB for the 49ers out of default.  In the loss the rattled QB was clearly Tua who completed 28 of 33 passes for 295 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs.  Those interceptions killed the Dolphins. Fortunately for Tua… The Chargers D is not the 49ers D.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won 5 of their last 10 games… perfectly consistent for a 6-6 team at this point in the season.  The shockingly lost their last game to the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20.  QB Justin Herbert completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 yards and 1 TD…. They got a bad game from RB Austin Ekeler whoo only netted 35 yards on 10 carries… while also losing a fumble.  The Chargers got a defensive TD from CB Bryce Callahan who took an INT to the house. The team looks disjointed.. And it should, they have been missing star LB Joey Bosa… they missed a few games with star DE Khalil Mack… they never know which receivers will be able to play as they all have been in and out of the lineup.

Brian Bitler is 17-8  in the last 30 days across all NFL picks for a profit of $8,100 with  BIG Winners everywhere! Get Brian Bitler’s picks!!....  Follow a handicapper soon!  They are available right now at the Shop Picks Page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.  And stay with BigAl.com for all your favorite sports… MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB.  Remember winning a wager is more fun than making the wager… more profitable too!!

 

MIA: 8-4, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U, 3-3 in road games.

LAC: 6-6, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U, 2-3 in home games.

The Dolphins are 8th in scoring with 24.9 points per game, 5th in total yards with 380.2 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 290.5 per game, and 28th in rushing yards with 89.7 per game.

The Chargers are 14th in scoring with 22.7 points per game, 17th in total yards with 351.2 per game, 6th in passing yards with 266.5 per game, 31st in rushing yards with 84.7 per game.

The Dolphins defense is 17th in defense of total yards with 344 allowed per game, 22nd in defense of passing yards with 233.5 allowed per game, 9th in defense of rushing yards with 110.5 per game allowed, and 26th in defense of points with 24.1 allowed per game.

The Chargers defense is 27th in defense of total yards with 371.7 per game allowed, 19th in defense of passing yards with 220.1 per game allowed, 29th in defense of rushing yards with 151.6 per game allowed, 30th in defense of points with 25.8 allowed per game

Our prediction for Sunday, December 11th is…. Chargers 27 - Dolphins 26

 

Bet on the Chargers to cover.  The Dolphins have a winning record and have had a nice run  BUT they score just a fraction of a single point more than they give up on average. They are simply not a safe bet on any spread bigger than a field goal.  The Dolphins are 6-6 ATS and 3-3 on the road… AND they are coming off an odd, tough loss against a lesser QB talent than the Chargers have.  Plus deep down Tua knows the Dolphins should have taken Herbert instead of him… he must, we all do.

 

Don't miss our champion handicappers' Free NFL Picks and Premium Selections every day here at Bigal.com.  Just click on Shop Picks for our Best Bets, or click on Shop Subscriptions to join for a week or a month.  And if you enjoyed this Dolphins/Chargers preview, be sure to bookmark Bigal.com for our daily Game Previews and Predictions.

8 of 10 games in this series played at Chargers went UNDER since 1992.

The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in games where the total is 49.5 or greater the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Trent Sherfield, WR Jaylen Waddle, LT Greg Little, LG Robert Jones, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Brandon Shell

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, TE Stone Smartt, LT Jamaree Salyer, G Kyle Van Noy, LG Matt Feiler, C Will Clapp, RG Zion Johnson, RT Foster Sarell

Clear with periodic clouds, 53*, Humidity 75%, wind 2 mph.  A cool but wonderful December night in Los Angeles.