NFL Football: Miami Dolphins VS Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/15/2023

by James Q

NFL Football: Miami Dolphins VS Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/15/2023

 
Game Time: 1:05 PM ET,  Sunday, January 15th, 2023
Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, New York
Where to Watch:  CBS. Paramount +

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

FanDuel: Bills -10.5, O/U 43.5
BetMGM:  Bills -10.5, O/U 43.5
PointsBet:  Bills -11, O/U 43.5

Season Record

Dolphins: 9-8, 2nd place AFC East
Bills: 13-3, 1st place AFC East

A big time AFC East battle between the awkwardly hobbled Miami Dolphins and the fan favorite Buffalo Bills.  The Dolphins have given plenty of lumps and nightmares this season… they have also gotten plenty of lumps and nightmares this season.  After starting the season strong the Miami Dolphins almost completely collapsed with the concussion drama over undersized quarterback Tua Tagolaivoa.  The team has tried to swap Tua out multiple times over the last two seasons and were thwarted by circumstance… Tom Brady couldn’t make it happen and Deshaun Watson is a dangerous sexual predator… but they went ahead with Tua and he started the season killing the game!  Then he got hobbled by an undiagnosed concussion … then got a concussion again… doctors were fired… the team was contrite.  Tua made it back, played a few games, and was concussed again.  All hell has broken loose in Miami… They either have a very good team with a very good quarterback,,, or they have very little because they have neither? The Buffalo Bills were preseason favorites, they lived up to the hype for the most part… they suffered through the cancellation of a game because their player Damar Hamlin suffered Cardiac Arrest on the field during the first quarter of the Bengals game… all of this has hidden that QB JOsh Allen has severely regressed.  Josh is great, Josh is good… but if his team didn’t have 2 kickoff returns for a touchdown last game?... He would have lost again. Seriously… the patriots lost by 12 and the Bills got 14 points off of 2 kick return TDs… take those returns away and you have a great big question mark for how Josh Allen finished the season. The Great Betting Opportunity here is all about how you feel about the lopsided double digit spread… and whether or not Tua plays?

The Miami Dolphins snapped a 4-game losing streak with a win over the New York Jets 11-6.  Had they lost that game they would not be here in this playoff game.  But they won.  In the win QB Skylar Thompson completed 20 of 31 passes for a skimpy 152 yards… 0 TD, and 0 INT.  He is not the answer to “what do we do without Tua?”  The Dolphins scored ZERO touchdowns against the Jets.. the entire day was field goal, field goal, field goal, safety.  A bad offensive day that produced a playoff berth through a terrible day for the New York Jets.

The Buffalo Bills are on a 7-game winning streak.  During that streak they are 4-3 ATS.  QB Josh Allen may be the cream of the crop but has developed a penchant for turnovers in the form of interceptions… His defense has bailed him out plenty.   Their game against the Bengals was voided… the Cardiac Arrest suffered by CB Damar Hamlin was tragic and uniting for the team.  I even ponied up $40 to his charity fund for kids christmas presents… Hopefully he is well and gets to have a great life after his life in football. The aBills won their last game 25-23 against the aNew England Patriots.  In the win they got 2 touchdown returns on kickoffs from Nyheim Hines.. That was the winning difference.  The Bills offense did not get it done. I will bet my life they do not get two more kickoff touchdown returns all playoffs… not really but ya know. In the win QB Josh Allen completed 19 of 31 passes for 254 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.

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Miami Dolphins VS Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

MIA: 9-8, 9-8 ATS, 8-9 O/U, 3-6 in road games.
BUF: 13-3, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U, 6-1 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Dolphins are 11th in scoring with 23.4 points per game, 6th in total yards with 364.5 yards per game, 4th in passing yards with 265.4 per game, and 25th in rushing yards with 99.2 per game.

The Bills are 2nd in scoring with 28.4 per game, 4th in total yards with 397.6 per game, 7th in passing yards with 258.1 per game, and 7th in rushing yards with 139.5 per game.

Defensive Analysis

The Dolphins defense is 18th in total yards with 337.8 per game allowed, 27th in pass defense with 234.8 per game allowed, 4th in rushing yards with 103 per game allowed, and 24th in points with 23.5 per game allowed.

The Bills defense is 6th in total yards with 319.1 per game allowed, 15th in passing yards with 214.6 per game allowed, 5th in rushing yards with 104.6 per game allowed, and 2nd in points with only 17.9 per game allowed.

Miami Dolphins VS Buffalo Bills Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, January 15th is…  Bills 31 - Dolphins 17
 
Bet on the Bills and expect a bigger margin than the prediction…. The prediction is worth what it would be if Tua played… he may not,
 
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NFL Betting Trends

Buffalo is 19-12 ATS vs Miami since 1992.
Bufalo is 2-1 ATS versus Miami in Buffalo the last 3 seasons.
Miami is 5-1 ATS versus division opponents this season.

Starting Lineups

Dolphins: QB Tua Tagolaivoa or Skyler Thompson, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Durham Smythe, LT Greg Little, LG Liam Eichenberg, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Brandon Shell

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, WR Gabe Davis, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Roger Saffold, C Mitch Morse, RG Ryan Bates, RT Spencer Brown

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy.  Temp 34*, Humidity 64%, wind 9 mph.  This weather sucks and no the Bills do not have cold weather advantage…. They are just a better team.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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