Game Time: 8:15 PM ET,  Monday, October 3rd, 2022

Venue:  Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Where to Watch: ABC

 

FanDuel:  Rams +1.5, 49ers -1.5; O/U 42.5

BetMGM:  Rams +1.5, 49ers -1.5; O/U 42.5

PointsBet:  Rams +1.5, 49ers -1.5; O/U 42.5

 

Rams: 2-1, 1st place NFC West

49ers: 1-2, tied for last place NFC West

The season is early.  Where either team stacks up in the NFC West is meaningless at this point as every NFC West team is separated by just 1 Rams win.  The 49ers will be slightly favored in this one because they are the home team and they have played the Rams very tough in recent years.  Rams vs 49ers is a key game for how both teams will fare overall.  The Rams are the defending Super Bowl Champs but trying to do it while missing several of the Super Bowl faces from last season.  The 49ers have already undergone enough drama and tragedy to write off this season… we all know it… They tried to replace QB Jimmy G (the only quarterback their coach ever seems able to win games with) with young sat for a season first round pick QB Trey Lance (a quarterback that has played 1 season over the last 4 years including college) and Trey promptly suffered a broken ankle which returned the job to Jimmy G.  You would think no harm no foul… except Jimmy didn’t practice with the team or even have access to a playbook during the preseason.  He wasn’t even part of the plans.  It may be a bumpy road… with no end to the bumps in sight… I mean what happens next year when Trey is ready to come back?... and Jimmy G is a free agent?... blah blah blah.  The saving grace for the 49ers is that their roster outside of quarterback is supposedly Super Bowl ready…. We will see whatever that means soon.

The Los Angeles Rams are not the earth shaking offense they were the last two seasons under QB Matt Stafford and Coach Sean McVay.  In Game 1 the Rams only managed 10 points against the stingy Buffalo Bills defense.  But they aren’t devoid of talent… They bounced back with wins in Games 2 and 3 … raising their early season numbers to a 20 point per game average (15th, so average).  The key problem was QB Matt Stafford had elbow surgery in the off season and will spend most of this season constantly checking and tending to it… as it is more of a lingering baseball type injury.  The Offense still has WR Cooper Kupp and are anxiously holding their breath to see if offseason signing WR Allen Robinson II will ever get with the program and start being productive… They gave the guy 30 million… If he doesn’t eventually work this will not be a Super Bowl contending team.  The Defense still has DT Aaron Donald who is still a monster… and barely hanging on to the title of best defender… The Cowboys Micah Parsons is rapidly making the case to have that title… still there is nothing wrong with Donald on your team… he will just need more help from guys like DE A’Shawn Robinson and ILB Bobby Wagner who should be shooting the holes Donald creates.  

The San Francisco 49ers have lost a game with Trey Lance at Quarterback, lost a game with Jimmy G at quarterback, and won the only game that they both took snaps in.  To be fair to Jimmy G… Trey did absolutely nothing in that shared game.  So, what we are left with is a last place offense with a near first place defense.  A great defense certainly helps in the NFL… but it doesn’t score any points!  The team will have to come together under Jimmy G and they will have to get very creative offensively considering Tackle Trent Williams will be out 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain.  The ball must move quick… the running game must shoulder more of the burden… They must find a way to score points.  If Jimmy G finds himself holding the ball, staring at the sky, with Aaron Doanld on top of him more than once Monday Night… The 49ers will lose big.

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LAR: 2-1, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U, 1-0 on the road

SF: 1-2, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U, 1-0 at home.

The Rams came out of Week 3 15th in scoring with 20.3 points per game, 25th in total yards with 306.3 per game, 17th in passing yards with 234 per game, and 30th in rushing yards with 72.3.  The Rams MUST get the run game going to take pressure off of Stafford.  It is imperative.

The 49ers came out of Week 3 29th in scoring with 15.7 points per game, 24th in total yards with 323.7 per game, 29th in passing yards with 172.7 per game, and 6th in rushing yards with 151 per game. They have a real running game… they need more than just that.  The odd part of the stats is that it is a small sample size that includes 1 Trey Lance game that was drenched in rain and mostly a goose egg … so the stats are unreliable at this point.  We literally do not know what we will get week to week.

The Rams defense came out of Week 3 17th in total yards with 346.3 allowed per game, 23rd in passing yards defense with 252.7 per game, and 10th in run defense with 93.7 yards per game.  The oddity is that they are 21st in scoring defense while allowing 23.3 points per game… seeing as they only average 20 points per game on offense they are lucky to have 2 wins.  They will need to find their form soon to improve these numbers.

The 49ers defense came out of Week 3 shining bright… They are 2nd in defense of total yards with 227 per game, 1st in defense of passing yards with 148.3 per game, 4th in defense of rushing yards with 78.7 yards per game, and 3rd in defense of scoring with 12.3 per game.  Those are great numbers that also include the rain drenched game against the Bears (a loss) where neither team compiled much in offensive stats.  The 49ers are in a weird spot with a losing record (it’s early) and a great defense… If they keep losing, the obvious move is to trade DE Nick Bosa… Seriously… trading Bosa to a contender if this season is lost would bring back picks and pieces that could radically transform this team next season for either Trey or Jimmy… OR A NEW GUY?  

 

Our prediction for Monday, October 3rd is…. Rams 24 - 49ers 17

 

The Rams are underdogs with a better record AND defending Champs.  The 49ers do have that great defense, but it can get beat after being on the field Too MUCH because Jimmy G and the offense are getting nothing done.  (this has already happened twice) This bet is a vote for the idea that the Rams defense will get to and hit Jimmy G hard to exploit those rotten offensive numbers.  

 

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The Rams are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less the last 3 seasons.

The 49ers are 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less the last 3 seasons.

 

Rams: C B Allen Out ** RB K Williams Out ** WR V Jefferson Out **

49ers: The big one is offensive Tackle Trent Williams.. He has been one of the best in football and leaves a glaring hole. ** LB A. Al-Shaair Out **  6 guys are listed as Quest ** QB Trey Lance Out

 

Rams: DT Aaron Donald.  Aaron has played great in nationally televised games… He should have been MVP of the Super Bowl…but that went to Kupp.  On Monday Night Football Troy Aikman is going to highlight how Aaron is rushing against a line that is missing their best lineman…. We will see.

49ers:  QB Jimmy G.  If he doesn’t get the ball moving quick he will get eaten alive.  He may be a bit snakebit from his team wanting to get rid of him… and then settling for him when they needed him.  That is a tough thing to digest.

 

Rams: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Darrell Henderson Jr, WR Allen Robinson II, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Ben Skowronek, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Joe Noteboom, LG David Edwards, C Coleman Shelton, RG AJ Jackson, RT Rob Havestein

49ers: QB Jimmy Garopolo, RB Jeff Wilson Jr, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Burford, RT Mike McGlinchey