NFL Football: Los Angeles Chargers VS Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/26/2022

 

Game Time: 8:15 PM ET,  Monday, December 25th, 2022

Venue:  Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Where to Watch:  ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN Deportes

FanDuel:  Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5

BetMGM:  Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5

PointsBet: Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5

Chargers: 8-6, 2nd place AFC West

Colts: 4-9, 3rd place AFC South

An AFC matchup on Monday night!... Two teams with different expectations for the final few weeks of the NFLl 2022-23 season.  The Los Angeles Chargers wobbled this season… Some say because of injury and some say because they always do.  However they have one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and a strong defense when they are healthy. The Chargers also have a very strong chance at the postseason depending on how everything breaks.  The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily this season… all the way to one of the worst teams in the league… but they do have a strong defense.  Notoriously they fired the head coach and hired a new one straight out of the broadcast booth.  Jeff Saturday is not a bad guy… he is just uncredentialed for his current job.  It was also a case of an owner simply hiring one of his former players and good friends.  The results have been 1-4 since.  Another problem for the Colts this season is that they have Matt Ryan at quarterback.  Nothing against Matt Ryan but his best season was several years ago when the Falcons gave up the biggest lead ever to turn into a loss in the Super Bowl against Tom Brady… Brady was a Patriot then… Ryan has been a spent player ever since with diminishing returns.  Now Ryan is the Colts experiment that didn’t work and will be tried differently next season.  The Great Betting Opportunity in this game will come from deciding if the Chargers can cover the spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won 3 of their last 4 games to get back into the NFL discussion.  They won their last game against the Tennessee Titans 17-14… it was a PUSH ATS.  In that game QB Justin Herbert completed 28 of 42 passes for 313 yards and 0 TDs… however he also completed 2 passes to the Titans for 2 INTs.  The Chargers TDs came in the running game with 1 for RB Austin Ekeler and 1 for RB Joshua Kelley.  It was a quiet offensive day for the Chargers but the defense held on long enough to let 17 points get the win.

The Indianapolis Colts relived QB Matt Ryan’s walking nightmare last week when they gave up a huge lead to lose to the Minnesota Vikings 39-36.  To further illustrate what you probably already know… The Colts were up 33-0 at halftime!!  The Colts scored 3 TDs and 4 field Goals in the first half!!  They tore the Viking apart in the first half and the Vikings came away with ZERO points… Then the second half saw everything that we had just seen reverse!!  The Vikings scored FIVE Touchdowns on the Colts while the Colts could only manage 1 Field goal… Then overtime brought the Vikings kicking a game winning field goal… and it was all over.  Matt Ryan looked terrible giving up the largest regular season lead ever to result in a loss… as did interim coach Jeff Saturday… even though Jeff may be given the job permanently so the team can circumvent the Rooney rule entirely.  Yay!  The Colts are completely broken.

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LAC: 8-6, 8-5-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U, 4-3 in road games.

IND: 4-9-1, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O/U, 2-4 in home games.

The Chargers are 14th in scoring with 22.3 points per game, 12th in total yards with 357.9 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 274.2 per game, and 31st in rushing yards with 83.7 per game.

The Colts are 29th in scoring with 17.5 points per game, 24th in total yards with 319.6 per game, 19th in passing yards with 214.4 per game, and 24th in rushing yards with 105.2 per game.

The Chargers defense is 21st in defense of total yards with 354.5 per game allowed, 11th in defense of passing yards with 145.6 per game allowed, 28th in defense of rushing yards with 145.6 per game, and 25th in defense of points scored with 24.3 per game.

The Colts defense is 12th in defense of total yards with 329.3 per game allowed, 10th in defense of passing yards with 205.6 per game allowed, 20th in defense of rushing yards with 123.7 per game allowed, 24th in defense of points scored with 24.1 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Monday, December 26th is… Chargers 28 - Colts 17

 

Bet on the Chargers.  The Colts defense is really good… so good that they gave up 36 second half points last week.  The Colts proved the idea that if your offense can’t make anything happen?... your good defense will be on the field for too long… and simply run out of juice.  The Chargers are not the Vikings… but then the Chargers will not fall down by 4-5 scores early.  Bet on the Chargers to cover the spread.

 

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The Chargers are 8-2 ATS versus the Colts at Indianapolis since 1992.

The Chargers are 14-5 ATS versus the Colts overall since 1992.

The Colts are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 3 seasons.

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Joshua Kelley, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, LT Jamaree Salyer, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Lindsey, RG Zion Johnson, RT Trey Pipkins.

Colts: QB Matt Ryan, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Parris Campbell, WR Michael Pittman JR, WR Alec Pierce, TE Nikola Kalinic, LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, RT Braden Smith

Snow showers.  25*, Humidity 70%... the snow will fall and fall and fall.  Good thing the stadium is a DOME and has a roof!  Otherwise we would be treated to the terrible football that Buffalo, Chicago, and Green Bay subject us to every year.