NFL Football: Los Angeles Chargers VS Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/08/2023

 

Game Time: 4:25 PM ET,  Sunday, January 8th, 2023

Venue:  Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel: Denver -2.5, O/U 39.5

BetMGM:  Denver -1.5, O/U 40

PointsBet:  Denver -2, O/U

Chargers: 10-6, 2nd place AFC West

Broncos: 4-12, 4th place AFC West

An AFC West showdown of incredible inconsequence.  This inconsequence has led to a very bizarre point spread.  The Los Angeles Chargers are locked into the postseason.  They can’t move up and they can’t move down.  They are set… and as such the feeling is that many players of extreme importance will be given a rest.  They will be protected from injury before the real show begins.  No sense going all out against one of the worst teams in the league.  The Denver Broncos find themselves favored at home… even though they are one of the worst teams in the league.  The thinking is that they have no reason to rest anyone since they are all about to be on vacation anyway.  QB Russell Wilson (so far) is one of the worst mistakes any franchise has made in recent memory… worse than Arizona signing Kyler Murray to huge money… worse than the Raiders trading Khalil Mack and then whiffing on so many 1st round picks that they seemingly gave him away for free.  Russell Wilson makes $50 million dollars a year and will for the next several seasons… and he was one of the worst performing QBs in all of football including many of the league’s backups all season long.  So why is Denver favored at all?  By all accounts Russell may not be able to get anything going against Chargers backups either?

The Los Angeles Chargers are on a 4-game winning streak.  It got them into the postseason and even helped them clinch a place no matter what happens in this game.  They last beat their City rival and Stadium roommate the Los Angeles Rams 31-10.  In that game QB Justin Herbert completed 21 of 28 passes for 212 yards with 2 TDs and with a safe lead handed the mop up duty to backup Chase Daniel who completed 3 of 3 for 27 yards.  Game Over, easy peasy. RB Austin Ekeler dominated the day on just 10 carries… finishing with 122 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs.  WRs Mike Williams and WR Keenan Allen pulled down 94 and 60 receiving yards respectively… and it really felt like a walk in the park.  The Chargers did not throw any interceptions or fumble the ball… They left no room for surprise.

The Denver Broncos are on an 8 game losing streak that has left them with a very high draft pick and the title of “Laughing Stock” of the NFL.  During the offseason people kept saying that this roster was a Championship level group that just needed a big quarterback to get a trophy… ala Peyton Manning.  That wasn’t true.  Sure, Russell Wilson is bad… and the head coach was in over his head… but you would think that somewhere in the mix would have been a competent running game?... Or a positive number in special teams play?.  The Broncos have a solid defense…. Pretty close to top ten in every category… and that was while being forced to play from behind, because of the inept offense,  in most every game of the season.  They last lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24… they covered the big spread easily.  That wasn’t such an accomplishment considering KC is 4-11-1 ATS this season. QB Russell Wilson had his best game in a month on that loss with 26 0f 38 for 222 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  Russell’s big contribution was 4 carries for 27 yards and 2 TDs.  Will the $50 million dollar man keep running the ball in the last inconsequential game of the season?

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LAC: 10-6, 10-5-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U, 5-3 in road games.

DEN: 4-12, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U, 3-4 in home games.

The Chargers are 13th in scoring with 22.7 points per game, 9th in total yards with 359.8 per game, 5th in passing yards with 268.2 per game, and 30th in rushing yards with 91.6 per game.

The Broncos are 32nd (LAST) in scoring with 16 points per game, 24th in total yards with 316 per game, 19th in passing yards with 207.9 per game, and 22nd in rushing yards with 108.1 per game.

The Chargers defense is 19th in total yards with 338.3 allowed per game, 6th in pass defense with 196.3 yards allowed per game, 27th in rush defense with 142.1 allowed per game, and 19th in points with 22.1 allowed per game.

The Broncos defense is 6th in total yards with 318 allowed per game, 11th in passing yards with 205.1 per game allowed, 12th in rush yards with 112.9 allowed per game, and 10th in points with 20.7 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 8th is…  Chargers 21 - Broncos 16

 

Bet on the Chargers.  Do not be fooled by whether Herbert is going to play or not… backup QB Chase Daniel is a veteran of 12 NFL seasons!  He has been such a reliable backup and team first guy that he has been paid very good money for more than a decade to only play once and a while.  He has logged so many years in the quarterback room and watching tape and preparing that he should be considered a QB with starter ability that has never gotten a real shot.  Also take a look at the Broncos injury list… everyone is on it.  Everyone is listed as Questionable or out… you have to scroll down the page quite a bit just to find the end of the list… This is because many many Broncos will not be playing either.  This nothing of a game is also a chance for the club to evaluate guys who haven’t played much before they start cutting and trading this offseason.  And since the Seahawks have their 1st and 2nd round picks this year… they will have to horse trade wildly to try to make chicken salad out of this… well you know. 

 

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Denver is 2-0 ATS versus the Chargers at Denver the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers are 58-32 ATS in road games where the total is 35.5 to 42 since 1992.

Denver is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season.

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, TE Donald Parham JR, LT Jamaree Salyer, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Linsley, RG Zion Johnson, RT Trey Pipkins III

Broncos: QB Russell Wilson, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Latavious Murray, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Courtland Sutton, TE Albert Okwuegbunam, LT Cameron Fleming, LG Dalton Risner, C Graham Glasgow, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Billy Turner

Partly Cloudy, 46*, Humidity 47%, wind 8 mph.