NFL Football: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/02/2022

 

Game Time: 8:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 2nd, 2022

Venue:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida… could change because of Hurricane (but won’t probably)

Where to Watch: NBC

 

DraftKings:  Spread:  Chiefs +1, Buccaneers -1; O/U 46

BetMGM:  Spread:  

PointsBet:  Spread:  

 

Chiefs: 2-1, 1st place AFC West

Buccaneers: 2-1 NFC South

Holy Gregorian Chant!  This is an inter conference battle between great quarterbacks. Not only quarterbacks that have been advertised as the best… but one who actually is the best while being old and the other who actually is the best while being young.  Is there anything to worry about during this matchup… YES lots.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had to contend with a hurricane that may have disrupted the operation of their families and their community… and their star quarterback promised his supermodel wife he would retire but didn’t… You can imagine the phone call from the wife who no longer lives with the husband “C’mon!  Let’s live happily ever after already!”... Another call from the supermodel may have been after Tua Tagliova got gobsmacked twice in 4 days “C’mon!  You don’t need CTE to be with me!”  I can promise you that through mutual friends that Tom and Giselle are not in as much trouble as the tabloids will tell you… but Tom and football are (writer’s note - I have no mutual friends with Tom and Giselle.)  The Kansas City Chiefs have a young great quarterback.  Patrick Mahomes is assumed to be the best everytime we start a season.. No matter where Tyreek Hill catches passes.  He has almost no pressure on him except he occasionally has a weirdo brother say weird things online.. So what?  All of this ties in later in the prediction.

The Kansas City Chiefs got their first loss of the season to the awkwardly bad Indianapolis Colts…. 20-17.  The Chiefs didn’t expect Colts QB Matt Ryan to kick them so hard… but late in the game that is exactly what the craft vet did.  The atrocious part for the Chiefs is only scoring 17 points in any game.  Patrick Maholmes couldn’t get past the Colts defense and in the late game situations Matt Ryan outplayed Mahomes.    Mahomes finisdhed with 20 of 35 for 262 yards with only 1 TD.  He targeted Travis Kelce often and landed 4 passes for 58 yards,,, Mahomes ended the game as the Chiefs top rusher with 26 yards… That is a big mistake for the Chiefs who desperately need to get the defense on their heels in BOTH the running game and the passing game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to worry about QB Tom Brady.  Yes, he is the best of all time… he is also 99 years old and trying to pretend to be happy playing while his family lives in another state.. While a broadcast network is waiting for his 200 million dollar debut… and while everyone kind of already knows it is all over.  He is great.. He can win any game… but if this were the days of payphones you would see Tom come out last at the end of halftime. I don’t want to predict his end at the end of the year… I predict it now. The Buccaneers have weapons.. The Buccaneers have blockers… just neither is the equal of recent years past.

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KC: 2-1, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U, 1-1 on the road.

TB: 2-1, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U, 0-1 at home.

 

The Chiefs came out of Week 3 4th in scoring with 29.3 points per game, 9th in total yards per game with 374 yards per game, 6th in passing yards with 281 per game, and 21st in rushing yards with 93 per game.  

The Buccaneers came out of Week 3 22nd in scoring with 17 points per game, 27th in yards per game with 297.3 per game, 22nd in passing yards with 211.3 per game, and 25th in rushing yards with 86 per game.  They are not yet clicking.  QB Tom Brady clearly needs to gel more with the new faces… That may yet happen… or this may just be who the offense is this season.

The Chiefs defense came out of Week 3 9th in defending total yards by allowing only 314 per game, 14th in pass defense with 227.3 per game, 9th in rushing defense with 86.7 per game, and 16th in points defended with only 21.7 per game.

The Buccaneers defense came out of Week 3 4th in defending total yards with 289 per game, 12th in defending passing yards with 209.7 per game, 5th in defending rushing yards with 79.3 per game, and 1st in defending scoring with 9.0 per game.

Our Prediction for the Sunday, October 2nd game is… Chiefs 21 - Bucs 17

 

A 1-points spread makes this game basically a pick em’.  Tom Brady just lost to Aaron Rodgers last week.  This week he will lose to Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes is Rodgers with better weapons.  The Bucs get a nod for the defense, but in the NFL the Chiefs have already shown an ability to score big.

 

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The Chiefs are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog the last 3 seasons.
Tampa Bay is 0-3 as a home favorite of 3 points or less the last 3 seasons.

 

Chiefs: DE M Danna Out ** DT C Jones Quest ** M Valdes Scantling Quest ** WR JJ Smith-Schuster Prob

Bucs: QB TOM BRADY - He will play, but he has a jammed finger.  If it effects him we may see a long day for the BUCS ** WR C Godwin Out ** WR R Gage Quest ** WR B Perriman Doubt

 

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes-  In a matchup like this the big time quarterbacks will get all the camera time.

Bucs: QB Tom Brady- Look closely at Tom today.  It is widely believed that even though he has had the greatest career of any football player of all time… He simply has put himself under too much pressure to do one more… Whether it is the expectation of greatness or the stress of conflicting family life Tom will begin to show cracks.  None is dumb enough to say he will fall off a cliff… but he could come apart at the seems.  He will sell a lot of cell-phones, Sandwiches, Insurance, and healthy pep pills… you get it.

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards Helaire, WR Juju Smith Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown Jr, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Andrew Wylie

Bucs: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Scotty Miller, WR Perriman*, WR Gage*, TE Ko Kieft, LT Brandon Walton, LG Luke Goedeke, C Robert Hainsey, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tristan Wirfs

 

Chiefs: Andy “Big Buffet” Reid

Bucs: Todd “New Guy” Bowles