NFL Football: Kansas City Chiefs VS Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/18/2022

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, December 18th, 2022

Venue:  NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Where to Watch: CBA, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Chiefs -14, O/U 48.5

BetMGM:  Chiefs -14, O/U 49

PointsBet:  Chiefs -14, O/U 49.5

Chiefs: 10-3, 1st place AFC West

Texans: 1-11-1, 4th place AFC South, last place in the league.

An AFC battle between one of the best teams in the league and the actual worst team in the league.  That is right… a mismatch so big Vegas has tentatively dropped a -14 point spread in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs… and that seems low.  The Kansas City Chiefs are riding their star QB Patrick Mahomes to win after win for yet another dominant season of football.  Patrick is the type of guy who routinely makes the magical look typical.  In the last game Patrick scrambled out of a broken pocket and was being chased to the sideline… without stopping to plant himself or twisting to face downfield in any way… he sort of flipped the ball for a ten yard completion… but since it wasn’t expected that ten yard completion turned into tons of open field for the receiver and turned into 6 points.  It was a Sportscenter top ten over and over again.  It was the sort of magic on display that makes defensive coordinators pull their hair out while watching film.  The Houston Texans lose and lose and lose… They can’t help it… they are bad on offense, nad on defense and in permanent limbo over who might be a good choice to play quarterback for them going forward… certainly no one who is currently on the roster?... The Texans had a great game on Sunday… They ALMOST beat the Dallas Cowboys! … Really they almost did!  It was a certain win ATS as Vegas put the spread at 17 points in favor of the Cowboys and the Texans defense managed 2 interceptions on Dak Prescott passes.  Still almost does nothing positive for your record whatsoever. The Texans are bad.

The Kansas City Chiefs have won 8 of their last 10 games… but they have been a terrible team to bet on all season.  For the season the Chiefs are 3-9-1 ATS.  You would make more money betting against this great team than ON this great team.  This is a team that could not cover -8.5 against the Denver Broncos… the reason is of course the Chiefs defense is soft.  They allow 22.9 points per game… which forces QB Patrick Mahomes to NEED statlines like 28 of 42 for 352 yards with 3 TDs… add to that Patrick also threw 3 INTs because he was forced to force the offense. In the last 6 games the Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS.  

The Houston Texans are the worst team in the league.. Only 1 win.  Just one and that was over the Jacksonville Jaguars way back on October 9th.  However they are also BAD ATS.  They are 5-7-1 ATS on the year… The Texans lost a 14 point spread just 3 weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins.  In the Texans 27-23 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday QB Davis Mills completed 16 of 21 passes for 175 yards 0 TD and 1 INT.  He was briefly replaced by QB Jeff Driskell who threw 4 of 6 for 38 yards 1 TD and 0 INT.  Creating a conundrum for the Texans… which of these unknown, terrible quarterbacks should they start next game?  Does it matter.  The Texans have a boatload of starters on the injury list on both sides of the ball. The team’s best player on offense LT Laremy Tunsil actually lost the Cowboy game single handedly when he killed a late drive attempt with back to back offsides penalties.  And that is their best player!  

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KCC: 10-3, 3-9-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U, 5-2 in road games.

HOU: 1-11-1, 5-7-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U, 0-5-1 in home games.

The Chiefs are 2nd in scoring with 29.5 points per game, 1st in total yards with 423.8 per game, 1st in passing yards with 309.2 per game, and 18th in rushing yards with 114.6 per game.

The Texans are 30th in scoring with 16.2 points per game, 32nd in total yards with 283 per game, 26th in passing yards with 193.1 per game, and 28th in rushing yards with 89.9 per game.

The Chiefs defense is 15th in defense of total yards with 341.6 per game, 22nd in defense of passing yards with 235.5 per game, 6th in defense of rushing yards with 106.2 allowed per game, and 18th in defense of points with 22.9 allowed per game.  

The Texans defense is 29th in defense of total yards with 380.2 allowed per game, 14th in defense of passing yards with 214.4 per game, 32nd in defense of rushing yards with 165.8 per game, and 26th in defense of points with 24.2 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 18th is…. Chiefs 35 - Texans 12

 

Bet on the Chiefs… Ignore BOTH the size of the spread AND that the Chiefs have not been good ATS.  The thing to know is that the Texans will finally be an offense that the Chiefs defense can dominate.  Knowing that the Chiefs are going to score 30+ as Mahomes does a better job protecting the ball from turnovers?... Covering the 14 points will be a no brainer.  Don’t say you haven’t been told.  Bet on the Chiefs to finally win ATS.

 

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The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS versus Houston at Houston since 1992.

The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS against conference opponents this season.

Houston is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points this season.

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Justin Watson, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Andrew Wylie

Texans: QB Davis Mills, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Phillip Dorsett, WR Chris Moore, TE OJ Howard, TE Teagan Quitoriano, LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Scott Quessenberry, RG AJ Cann, RT Tytus Howard  

Partly Cloudy, Humidity 57%, wind 11 mph, 61 *