NFL Football: Kansas City Chiefs VS Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/11/2022

 

Game Time: 4:25 PM ET,  Sunday, December 11th, 2022

Venue:  Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Colorado

Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Chiefs -9.5, 43.5 O/U

BetMGM:  Chiefs -9.5, 44 O/U

PointsBet:   Chiefs -9.5, 44.5 O/U

Chiefs: 9-3, 1st place AFC West

Broncos: 3-9, 4th place AFC West

An AFC West battle of opposites.  Both AFC West teams are helmed by a famous quarterback… but one is playing like the perennial MVP candidate that he always is… while the other is playing like a confused rookie who needs glasses. They both make amazing salaries… They both have a Super Bowl ring and a Super Bowl loss.. They both lost the Super Bowl to Tom Brady.  The Kansas City Chiefs are riding high… just like they have done ever since the year after they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes and he became the full time starter. The Chiefs are 1st in scoring, 1st in yards, 1st in passing… lots of firsts.  They are the class of the AFC,  the most important team for any AFC team to beat if they wish to make it to the Super Bowl.  The Denver Broncos haven’t won a game since Halloween and didn’t win many before that. QB Russell Wilson does not look like a $50 million dollar a year Super Bowl winning quarterback at all.  His team is LAST in scoring with only 13.8 points a game… They average 15-16 points less than the Chiefs and will enter the game as 9.5 point underdogs.  Vegas will overwhelmingly take action in favor of the Chiefs as not only does Denver have an awful record… but also an awful record ATS.  The Great Betting Opportunity in this game may be obvious!... Let’s check the numbers and decide how obvious it really is.

The Kansas City Chiefs snapped a 5-game winning streak by losing their last game to the underdog Cincinnati Bengals 27-24… it was also a loss against the 2.5 point spread.  In that game QB Patrick Mahomes struggled a bit by only hitting 16 of 27 passes for 1 TD and 0 INT… Mahomes would also run a TD in as well.  The Chiefs employed the run with RBs Pacheco (66 yards) and McKinnon (51 yards) with Pacheco getting a rushing TD and McKinnon was the receiver on Mahomes lone TD pass.  Three TDs, one field goal… They came up 3 points short.  The very big thing to give anyone pause about the OBVIOUS bet for the Chiefs… is that Kansas City is terrible ATS this year. Only 3-8-1 ATS.  They have won and lost a lot of close games this season.  Mostly because the defense falls into the “average” category.  Dt Chris Jones is a pass rushing monster who leads the team with 10 sacks on the season… but there aren’t too many other bright spots. This leaves the league’s #1 scoring offense to keep having to post high scores to win.

The Denver Broncos are on a 4-game losing streak… They have only won 2 of their last 10 games.. And only 3 of 12 on the season.  They don’t just struggle, they stink up the joint.  QB Russell Wilson does not look comfortable on his new team… and he certainly does not look to be coached very well. They lost their last game to the Baltimore Ravens 10-9… That was a loss to the Ravens AFTER knocking QB Lamar Jackson out early.  The Broncos lost to backup Raven’s QB Tyler Huntley. In the loss QB Russell Wilson completed 17 of 22 passes for 189 yards, 0 TD, and 0 INT. Denver tried to pound the ball with the running game to very below average results.  The Broncos left the game with 3 field goals and 0 TDs… in what was the most winnable game in the NFL this season… all they needed to get the win was more than 10 POINTS… the win never came.

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KCC: 9-3, 3-8-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U, 4-2 in road games.

DEN: 3-9, 4-8 ATS, 1-11 O/U, 2-3 in home games.

The Chiefs are 1st in scoring with 29.2 points per game, 1st in total yards with 423.2 per game, 1st in passing yards with 306.5 per game, 18th in rushing yards with 116.8.

The Broncos are 32nd (last) in scoring with 13.8 points per game, 28th in total yards with 315.2 per game, 21st in passing yards with 212.2 per game, 24th in rushing yards with 102.9 per game.

The Chiefs are 16th in defense of total yards with 343.4 allowed per game, 23rd in passing yards allowed with 237.3 per game, 6th in rushing yards with 106.2 allowed per game, and 15th in defense of points with 22.5 allowed per game.

The Broncos defense is 3rd in defense of total yards with 304.6 allowed per game, 3rd in defense of passing yards with 184.5 allowed per game, 19th in rushing yards allowed with 120.1 per game, and 2nd in defense of points with 17 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 11th is…. Chiefs 30 - Broncos 14

 

Bet on the Chiefs.  The Broncos defense is good… probably the best thing the Broncos have going for them… but they will face the top scoring team in the NFL without much help from their offense.  Conversely the Chiefs defense is average but only have to stop the WORST offense in football.  It seems to be a too easy bet, the Chiefs record is BAD ATS… but the outcome of this game feels way too obvious.  Make the bet and watch the Chiefs finally cover the spread as they gear up for the playoffs which are a month away.

 

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The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS against conference opponents this year.

The Broncos are 44 OVER and 23 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 45 points since 1996.

The Broncos are 1 OVER and 7 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes Scantling, WR Justin Watson, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown, LG Nick Allegretti, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Andrew Wylie

Broncos: QB Russell Wilson, RB Latavious Murray, WR Kendall Hinton, WR Courtland Sutton, TE Eric Saubert, TE Eric Tomlinson, LT Cameron Fleming, LG Dalton Risner, C Graham Glasgow, RG Quinn Meinherz, RT Calvin Anderson

Sunny, 57*, Humidity 22%, Wind 8 mph.  There is a zero chance of precipitation listed for game day Sunday.  That is as perfect weather in Denver in December as anyone could ask for… and you were worried about Global Warming?...