NFL Football: Jacksonville Jaguars VS Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 1st, 2023

Venue:  NRG Stadium, Houston, Texans

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Jaguars -4.5, O/U 43.5

BetMGM:  Jaguars -4.5, O/U 43.5

PointsBet: Jaguars -4.5, O/U 43

Jaguars: 7-8, 1st place AFC South

Texans: 2-12, 4th place AFC South

An NFL AFC South matchup between the best and the worst.  The AFC South has been and is an absolute disaster this season.  All the teams are bad… Jaguars, Titans, Colts, and Texans… That is a dream division for a dominant team to find themselves in… just none of these teams are dominant.  None of them even have a .500 record. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the lead however, their only worry is if they can hold off the Tennessee Titans for the division crown and see the playoffs.  The best chance they have to win the division is that they get to pay the awful Houston Texans as the first of the last two games of the year.  That feels like a guaranteed win.  The Jaguars have a bright future as QB Trevor Lawrence has been playing up to his potential with further room to grow… They only need to find more pieces to give him an actual team.  The Houston Texans are nothing.  Literally… they are the worst team in a league that also has the Broncos, Bears, and Cardinals.  The Texans are the worst.  They also don’t really want to win games at this point.  From where they sit they will get the first pick in the antiquated NFL draft (this league needs a lottery) and should not blow that.  Once they draft arrives hopefully the Texans will know to trade back instead of taking a quarterback with the #1 pick… why?... Because of David Carr…. The Texans quarterback that was taken #1 overall (and older brother of Derek)... David had a lot of promise but spent his Houston Texans career flat on his back because he never had an offensive line.  Hopefully the Texans know that the #1 pick is worth something to others… and they should make a deal to get the multiple picks rather than the guy who will be broken by not having a line protecting him. Build a team first and add a QB later.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a late season turnaround. They are on a 3-game winning streak and have won 5 of their last 7 games.  It was a dramatic rise indeed.  Their last win was 19-3 over the New York Jets. In that game QB Trevor Lawrence completed 20 of 31 passes for 229 yards, 0 TD, and 0 INT.  Trevor also scrambled 7 times for 51 yards and 1 TD.  The Jacksonville defense also had the sort of day that would end Jets QB Zach Wilson’s career.  The poor guy could not complete passes and was pulled after throwing an interception to Jaguars LB Derek Lloyd.  The Jaguars are not loaded on either side of the ball… but with a consensus #1 pick at quarterback coming to the end of his second season… The Jaguars are looking better.  A win in this game will give them a .500 record.

The Houston Texans won their last game!!  The exclamation points are for the very unexpected nature of the last sentence.  That gives them 1 win in their last 10 games!  They must have partied that night.  They beat the Tennessee Titans 19-14… coincidentally opening the door for the Jacksonville Jaguars to take the lead in the AFC South.  Houston got 17 completions out of 28 attempts from QB Davis Mills with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The win came from the much maligned Houston defense who grabbed 2 interceptions off Titans QB Malik Willis and registered 4 sacks.  The Jaguars did just enough on offense to beat a Titans team with a rookie quarterback who couldn’t move the ball.  I can promise you that that was the Texans last win on the season. Now let’s check the point spread.

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JAC: 7-8, 7-7-1 ATS, 8-7 O/U, 3-5 in road games.

HOU: 2-12-1, 7-7-1 ATS, 6-9 O/U, 0-6-1 in home games.

The Jaguars are 11th in scoring with 23.5 points per game, 6th in total yards with 367.7 per game, 10th in passing yards with 239.2 per game, and 11th in rushing yards with 128.5 per game.

The Texans are 30th in scoring with 16.9 points per game, 32nd in total yards with 278.9 per game, 26th in passing yards with 190 per game, and 30th in rushing yards with 88.9 per game.

The Jaguars defense is 26th in total yards by allowing 361.1 per game, 29th in defense of passing yards by allowing 246.5 per game, 14th in rushing yards with 114.7 per game allowed, and 15th in defense of scoring by allowing 22.1 points per game.

The Texans defense is 30th in total yards by allowing 381.1 per game, 13th in defense of passing yards by allowing 212.5 per game, 32nd (last) in run defense by allowing 168.6 yards per game, and 26th in defense of points by allowing 23.9 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 1st is… Jaguars 28 - Texans 12

 

Bet on the Jaguars.  Thank Vegas for setting a 4.5 point spread when the Jaguars are so much better offensively than the Texans.  It doesn’t even matter who the Texans put under center.  They do not have anyone on the roster that can move the ball… and they have spent 15 games this season proving that.  Bet on the Jaguars.

 

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Houston is 4-1 ATS versus Jacksonville the last 3 seasons.

Houston is 2-0 ATS versus Jacksonville at Houston the last 3 seasons.

Jacksonville is 0-6 as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne JR, WR Zay Jones, WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, TE Chris Manhertz, LT Walker Little, LG Tyler Shatley, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherf, RT Jawaan Taylor

Texans: QB Davis Mills, RB Royce Freeman, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Chris Moore, TE Jeff Driskel, TE Jordan Akins, LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Tytus Howard, C Scott Quessenberry, RG AJ Cann, RT Charlie Heck

Partly Cloudy, 78*, Humidity 81%, wind 13 mph.  Chance of precipitation 20%.