NFL Football: Indianapolis Colts VS Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/04/2022

 

Game Time: 8:20 PM ET,  Sunday, December 4th, 2022

Venue:  AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Where to Watch: NBC

FanDuel:  Cowboys -10.5, O/U 43.5

BetMGM:   Cowboys -10.5, O/U 44.5

PointsBet:   Cowboys -10.5, O/U 44.5

Colts: 4-7, 2nd place AFC South

Cowboys: 8-3, 2nd place NFC East

An interconference battle between the 2nd place AFC South team and the 2nd place NFC East team.  A quick look at the records on the season and you will immediately be shown that not all second places are created equal. The Colts are a losing team, in a bad division, that recently fired it’s coach and replaced him with a “buddy” of the owner.  The Cowboys are a winning division in a TOUGH division, with a loaded roster, and big postseason plans. This matchup is not close on paper or with the eye test.  The Great Betting Opportunity will be found in how much faith (or how little) you have in double digit points spreads?  To bet on a team to win is one thing… to bet on a team to win by 10.5 points is another thing entirely.  To get to that sporead you have to believe that both the offense and the defense of the Cowboys is MUCH better than the offense and defense of the Colts.  To bet this spread for the Cowboys you have to believe the Cowboys will score more and defend better by a lot… not a little.

The Indianapolis Colts have lost their last 2 games.  That is par for the course this season, but there was some optimism when Jeff Saturday came out of a broadcast booth to take the head coaching reins and the team immediately won the first game of his tenure.  Only that win cam against the Las Vegas Raiders… a game the old coach could have also won.  The dirty not so secret is that the Colts aren’t bad because of a lack of coaching.  They are bad because of a lack of quarterback.  QB Matt Ryan is past his prime and suddenly dull… QB Sam Ehlinger is young and not a true NFl starting quarterback prospect, and QB Nick Foles is still living off that Super Bowl where he was a backup thrust into a good situation because injury to the starting guy and a roster good enough to carry him through.  The Colts lost their last game to the lowly Pittsburgh Steelers 24-17. In that game QB Matt Ryan was 22 of 34 for 199 yards 1 TD and 1 INT… RB Jonathan Taylor had a rushing TD… and the Colts defense could do nothing to stop the Pittsburgh Steelers running game.

The Dallas Cowboys have been cruising of late, winners of 4 of their last 5 games. They are on a 2-game winning streak.  The only thing that could damper the current Dallas enthusiasm is finding out that their owner Jerry Jones was a teenage thug,  racist, gang member, who took part in trying to stop black kids from entering a school after the order of desegregation in Little Rock Arkansas 65 years ago.  That was a lifetime ago… but it will still be part of the questions floating in the direction of Cowboys players, coaches, and team executives as Jerry himself stays quiet.  It is not a surprise that an 80 year old from Little Rock, Arkansas was a racist… or had white power leanings… and yes, people do have the power to change over a lifetime… still he might want to issue an apology and perhaps explain the photo?... He might want to make a donation or two to HSBCs… He might want to get ahead of it?... He might want to finally atone for some sins?  In their last game the Cowboys beat the New York Giants 28-20.  In that win QB Dak Prescott threw for 21 of 30 passes with 261 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 92 yards rushing with 1 TD… RB Tony Pollard had 60 yards rushing… LB Micah Parsons had 2 sacks bringing his fantastic season to 12 sacks so far.  They are firing on all cylinders… I wonder if the league will simply force a transition to Jerry Jones’s oldest son in an effort to keep it all nice and quiet?

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IND: 4-7-1, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U, 2-3-1 in road games.

DAL: 8-3, 7-4 ATS, 4-6-1 O/U, 5-1 in home games.

The Colts are 30th in scoring with 15.8 points per game, 20th in total yards with 318.8 per game, 18th in passing yards with 219.1 per game, 25th in rushing yards with 99.7 per game.

The Cowboys are 7th in scoring with 25.4 points per game, 17th in total yards with 353.3 per game, 21st in passing yards with 214.1 per game, 7th in rushing yards with 139.2 per game.

The Colts defense is 6th in defending yards with 308.9 per game allowed, 5th in defense of passing yards with 190.6 per game, 17th in defense of passing yards with 118.3 per game, and 11th in defense of points with 20.3 allowed per game.

The Cowboys defense is 7th in defending yards with 309.6 allowed per game, 1st in defense of passing yards with 177.7 per game allowed, 24th in defense of rushing yards with 131.9 per game allowed, 2nd in defense of points with only 17 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 4th is…. Cowboys 31 - Colts 17

 

Bet on the Cowboys.  Yes, the spread is HUGE… and that might give you pause.  But the Colts have a BAD offense and Good Defense.  The Cowboys have a Good offense and a GREAT defense.  This game should not be close.

 

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(There are no past matchups between these teams over the last 3 seasons)

The Colts are 20-8 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in December games the last 3 seasons.

The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Colts: QB Matt Ryan, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Parris Campbell, WR Michael Pittman JR, WR Alec Pierce, TE Mo Alie-Cox, LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, RT Braden Smith

Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot, WR Michael Gallup, WR Noah Brown, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Dalton Schultz, LT Tyler Smith, LG Connor McGovern, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin, RT Terence Steele

Cloudy, Humidity 75%, Wind 6 mph, 59*