NFL Football: Houston Texans VS Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/11/2022

 

Game Time: 1:05 PM ET,  Sunday, December 11th, 2022

Venue:  AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Where to Watch: FOX

FanDuel:  Cowboys -17, O/U 44.5

BetMGM:   Cowboys -17, O/U 44

PointsBet:   Cowboys -17, O/U 45

Texans: 1-10, 4th place AFC South… worst record in the league

Cowboys: 9-3, 2nd place NFC East

A Lone-star State battle of AFC VS NFC… but don’t expect an actual battle. In order to have an actual battle you would need actual competition… and actual competition is a very tall order for the Houston Texans versus just about anyone right now.  The Texans are bad… very very bad.  They have completely fallen off the cliff after losing QB Desaun Watson to scandal and suspension and trade demands and no longer wanting him… ugh it has been a mess. Clearly the Texans need a complete rebuild from the foundation on up.  They have QB Davis Mills or QB Kyle Allen managing the losses week after week and they will definitely need a new QB… They also need an offensive line, a defensive line, a couple of weapons like receivers and running backs… Oh and some of everything else.  The Dallas Cowboys meanwhile are winning lots of football games this season.  The NFC East was bad last season… but it seems everyone in the NFC East has flipped the script and improved to make it maybe the toughest division in football.  The Cowboys have all that stuff that I said the Texans will need.  The Cowboys have a QB in Dak Prescott, an o-line, a good pass rush, good weapons, quality pass defense. Ther Cowboys are scoring a lot of points AND preventing a lot of points… It’s a very good combo.  The only question anyone would have to ask themselves before betting on this game is “The spread is HOW MUCH!!”... That’s right… The spread is hovering at -17 in favor of the Cowboys!  That is an astronomical number for an NFL game!  That is the sort of spread you really only see in college football when the mismatch is SO obvious… and yes this mismatch is also obvious.  But is any NFL mismatch actually worth 17 points?

The Houston Texans are on a 7-game losing streak… and winners of only 1 game in 11 tries… and that win was a low scoring affair against the lousy Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston has not scored more than 17 points in any of their last 6 games… as they got beat by the Browns, the Dolphins, the Commanders, the Giants, the Eagles, the Titans… and absolutely NONE of those teams beat the Texans by 17 points… The highest point differential was against the Dolphins as the Dolphins posted a 15 point win 30-15 over the Texans.  A 17 point spread has been set on this game because the Texans average 15.7 points per game… while the Cowboys average 27.8 points a game… which is only a 12 point difference.  The thinking though is because when Dallas beats teams… they really beat them.  

The Dallas Cowboys are on a 3-game winning streak.  They beat the Indianapolis Colts 54-19… that’s right by 25 big points!... They beat the Minnesota Vikings 40-3… that’s right by 37 big points!… They beat the Chicago Bears 49-29.. that’s right by 20 big points!  Three times the Cowboys easily covered by more than 17 points… against BETTER TEAMS than the Houston Texans.  The Cowboys are 3rd in the league in scoring and 3rd in the league in defense of points… that is a great combination for running up a high score against a bad team.  The only thing working against the Cowboys running up a huge score would be… WHY?  That is the big question.  The Cowboys are walking a thin line of success and health… They need success in the 5 games left to play because their division is so competitive… but once in the postseason… They will need a full complement of health to have any chance of getting past the Eagles and into a Super Bowl… You could easily see the Cowboys up by 21 points in the 4th quarter of this game and simply not playing any key starters from either side of the ball… You could also easily see the Cowboys give up a TD in order to get the ball back and run out the clock.

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HOU: 1-10-1, 4-7-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U, 1-5 in road games.

DAL: 9-3, 8-4 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U, 6-1 in home games. 

The Texans are 31st in scoring with 15.7 points per game, 32nd in total yards with 279.3 per game, 27th in passing yards with 191.4 per game, 29th in rushing yards with 87.9 per game.

The Cowboys are 3rd in scoring with 27.8 per game, 15th in total yards with 355.9 per game, 22nd in passing yards with 210 per game, 7th in rushing yards with 145.9 per game.

The Texans defense is 28th in defending total yards by allowing 378.3 per game, 13th in defense of passing yards by allowing 209.2 per game, 32nd in defense of rushing yards with 169.1 per game allowed, and 23rd in defending total points with 23.9 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 11th is…. Cowboys 32 - Texans 17

 

That is right.  Bet on the Texans!  Yes the Cowboys could run up the score against these guys…. BUT why on earth tax Dak’s arm health for the rest of the season.  The Cowboys will run run run against the Worst run defense in the league and the clock will be eaten up.  The Texans don’t have to play great… they don’t have to even play that well… They just have to cover a 17 point point spread!  This is by far the largest spread of the Texans season!

 

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Houston is 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 or more points.

Dallas is 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game. The last 3 seasons.

Dallas is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Texans: QB Kyle Allen, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Phillip Dorsett, TE Brevin Jordan, TE Teagan Quitoriano, TE Jordan Akins, LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Scott Quesseberry, RG AJ Cann, RT Tytus Howard

Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, RB Tony Pollard, WR Noah Brown, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Jake Ferguson, LT Tyler Smith, LG Connor McGovern, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin, RT Terence Steele 

Partly Cloudy, 71*, Humidity 65%, Wind 6 MPH