NFL Football: Green Bay Packers VS Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/25/2022

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, December 25th, 2022

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel:  Dolphins -3.5, O/U 48.5

BetMGM:  Dolphins -4, O/U 49.5

PointsBet: Dolphins -3.5, O/U 49.5

Packers: 6-8, 3rd place NFC North

Dolphins: 8-6, 2nd place AFC East

An inter-conference battle between a team that needs to win ALL the games left in the season… and a team that SHOULD win all the games left in the season.  The Green Bay Packers started the season terribly with a big loss to the Minnesota Vikings… they seemed to right the ship as they won their next 3… Then the bottom dropped out of Green Bay as they went on a five-game losing streak which they snapped with an ugly overtime win against the Cowboys…. Then another 2 game losing streak.  The Packers were pronounced dead.  Fully dead.  QB Aaron Rogers took a lot of flack for his hippie ish offseason mind bending drug use stories… his failure to connect with the new young receivers… and his constant podcast appearances that show an ugly arrogance above all else… couple all that with a $50 million salary… and you very quickly get a lot of people “hate-watching” the Packers.  Still, Aaron is a Hall of Famer… he can still throw the ball…and his young receivers have done all the work to fit with him as best they can.  The Miami Dolphins started this season hot as a $5 dollar pistol.  They had been reborn as a loaded offense and defense with QB Tua Taglovailoa given a lot of credit.  Then Tua caught a big hit and missed some games with a concussion… the team lost 3 straight… Then Tua returned to go on a 5-game winning streak.  The Dolphins were being praised as Super Bowl contenders… Tua as The Man!... Then reality kicked in… and the Dolphins have now lost their last 3 games straight and everybody… and I mean everybody has jumped off the Dolphins ship.  The questions of whether Tua is even big and strong enough to be in the NFL are back.  Why did the Dolphins spend all this money and go all in trading draft picks to stack this roster… if they are going to stick with a small man at QB?..... The Dolphins have a winning record with the last 3 games of the season against middling struggling teams… If they win 3-straight?... Will everyone get back on the ship?

The Green Bay Packers won their last game against a really bad Los Angeles Rams team 24-12. It was a win ATS which was Packers -8.  In that game QB Aaron Rodgers completed 22 of 30 passes for 229 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The Packers running game worked well with 90 yards on 17 carries from Aaron Jones… and 36 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries from AJ Dillon.  The Packers defense spent most of the Day hitting or sacking Rams QB Baker Mayfield… 5 Packers defenders combined for 6 sacks.  The Packers had a relatively easy day except for an Aaron Jones fumble… but they never seemed to not have the win in the bag.

The Miami Dolphins lost their last game to the Buffalo Bills 32-29.  It was a close one.  The questions that follow Tua constantly resurfaced even though Tua had a relatively big day.  He went 17 of 30 for 234 yards and 2 TDs.  RB Raheem Mostert carried the ball 17 times for 136 yards.  The offense was popping… only the Bills were popping louder… as their quarterback (bigger, stronger Josh Allen) got 304 passing yards with 4 TDs.  There is very little actually wrong with the offensive game of the Dolphins… The problem seems to be with the Dolphins soft pass defense that is 27th in the league… and the defense gives up a lot of points 24.6 per game!  This forces the good offense to have to score big to get wins.

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GBP: 6-8, 6-8 ATS, 7-7 O/U, 2-5 on the road.

MIA: 8-6, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U, 5-1 in home games.

The Packers are 20th in scoring with 20.5 points per game, 15th in total yards per game with 345.6 per game, 16th in passing yards with 219.3 per game, and 12th in rushing yards with 126.3 per game.

The Dolphins are 9th in scoring with 24.6 points per game, 5th in total yards with 370.4 yards per game, 3rd in passing yards with 273.6 per game, and 27th in rushing yards with 96.9 per game.

The Packers defense is 15th in total yards allowed with 334 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 185.1 allowed per game, 29th in rushing yards allowed per game with 148.9 per game, and 15th in points with 22.4 allowed per game.

The Dolphins defense is 23rd in total yards allowed with 357.6 per game, 27th in passing yards with 246.3 per game allowed, 10th in run defense with 111.3 per game allowed, and 26th in points with 24.6 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 25th is… Dolphins 29 - Packers 22

 

Bet on the Dolphins.  Seriously, the Packers will catch a loss and be out of the postseason conversation for good.  The Dolphins are a postseason threat… They still have all those weapons, but the best would be Mostert going against a very bad Packers run defense. Plus the Dolphins are 5-1 at home while the Packers are 2-5 on the road.

 

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The Packers are 9-3 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less the last 3 seasons.

The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.

Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, TE Marcedes Lewis, LT Zach Tom, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyan, RT Yosh Nijman

Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead, LG Robert Jones, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Brandon Shell

Scattered Showers, Humidity 61%, wind 13 mph.  A breezy, rainy Christmas in Miami.