NFL Football: Denver Broncos VS Los Angeles Rams Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/25/2022

 

Game Time: 4:30 PM ET,  Sunday, December 25th, 2022

Venue:  SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Broncos -3, O/U 36.5

BetMGM:  Broncos -2.5, O/U 36.5

PointsBet: Broncos -3, O/U 36.5

Broncos: 4-10, 4th place AFC West

Rams: 4-10, 4th place NFC West

The “also-rans” are also still running.  An inter-conference matchup between teams that we will definitely not be seeing in the playoffs.  One of them made the wrong choice when it came to big Trade and $50 million dollar signing… The other is a defending Super Bowl Champ who could not withstand major pieces on the roster leaving for either more money or retirement… at the same time they were giving raises to major pieces that would end up on the injury list.  The Denver Broncos loved the big trade that brought a famous quarterback into the fold… and they loved signing QB Russell Wilson to a BIG 3-year deal…. What they do not love is the result.  The bad team (Seattle Seahawks) that they traded with have wildly outperformed the Broncos… and they also own the Broncos 1st round pick this year among several others. The Los Angeles Rams who last season had the best receiver in football and the best pass rusher in football got to watch both of them hit the injury list… couple that with the QB they traded a lot to the Detroit Lions to get, got them a Super Bowl… but may have a career ending arm/shoulder/baseball type thingy injury that ends his career soon.  The result is that now QB Baker Mayfield is taking snaps for his third team and 7th head coach in his short, disappointing career.  Ouch.  So why watch this one?... You do not have to!  It is Christmas, you have family and NBA games on ABC.  However, you should bet on this game.  The reason is the chance to make real money off the misfortune of one of these teams.  Let’s take a look at the numbers.

The Denver Broncos snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 24-15 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. In that game… backup QB Brett Rypien completed 21 of 26 passes for 197 yards and 1 INT… decidedly Russell Wilson numbers at a 90% cheaper price.  The Broncos relied on a running game that saw RB Latavious Murray gain 130 yards and 1 TD on 24 carries and RB Marlon Mack gain 37 yards and 1 TD on 5 carries.  In addition to Rypien’s interception he also lost a fumble. Rypien didn’t have the easiest day as Cardinals pass rusher JJ Watt caught him for 3 sacks (earning $900,000 in contract bonus money) while four other Cardinals got 1 sack apiece.  Still the Broncos got the win.

The Los Angeles Rams snapped a 6-game losing streak with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders with QB Baker Mayfield given only 48 hours to prepare… but that was the game before last. In their last game the Green Bay Packers beat the Rams 24-12.  They had a brief high followed by the inevitable crashing back down to earth.. This is after all a team missing all their great pieces from last season’s Super Bowl run with only Baker Mayfield to show as the replacement.  In the loss to Green Bay QB Baker Mayfield completed 12 of 21 passes for 111 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The Rams running game has been poor all season (which further injured Matthew Stafford)

And this game was no exception.  RB Cam Akers had 12 carries with 65 yards and bupkis after that.  The Rams defense got an interception and 3 sacks but mostly got pushed around by Aaron Rodgers.

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DEN: 4-10, 6-8 ATS, 3-11 O/U, 0-6 in road games.

LAR: 4-10, 5-8-1 ATS, 5-9 O/U, 3-5 in home games.

The Broncos are 32nd (last place) in scoring with 15.6 points per game, 27tyh in total yards with 316.1 per game, 22nd in passing yards with 208.4 per game, and 23rd in rushing yards with 107.8 per game.

The Rams are 31st (next to last) in scoring with 16.4 points per game, 32nd in total yards with 273.9 per game, 25th in passing yards with 188.9 per game, and 30th in rushing yards with 85.1 per game.

The Broncos defense is 5th in total yards allowed with 309 per game, 6th in passing yards allowed with 194.5 per game, 14th in rushing yards allowed with 114.5 per game, and 3rd in points allowed with 18.1 per game.

The Rams defense is 13th in total yards allowed with 331.6 per game, 21st in passing yards with 227.1 per game allowed (why they must trade Jalen Ramsey), 4th in rushing yards allowed with 104.5 per game, and 18th in points allowed per game with 22.9 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 25th is… Rams 21 - Broncos 20

 

Bet on the Rams.  The Broncos defense is slightly better, but the Broncos QB position is looking a bit more desperate. As both teams will heavily apply the run.. The Rams defense is actually better… That is the only category.  Plus you get to put the field goal in your pocket.  Bet on the Rams.  Neither team could “tank” as neither team has their own first round pick.

 

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The Rams are 1-5 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3 this season.

The Rams are 3-10 ATS in non-conference games the last 3 seasons.

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.

Broncos: QB Brett Rypien, RB Latavious Murray, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Freddie Swain, WR Brandon Johnson, TE Greg Dilcich, LT Cameron Fleming, LG Dalton Risner, C Graham Glasgow, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Billy Turner

Rams: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Cam Akers, WR Van Jefferson, WR Ben Skowronek, WR Bradon Powell, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Ty Nsekhe, LG Matt Skura, C Brian Allen, RG Coleman Shelton, RT Rob Havestein

Mostly Sunny, 80*, wind 3 mph… Jealous?... They also have a roof on the stadium.