NFL Football: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/26/2022

 

Game Time: 8:15 PM ET,  Monday, September 26th, 2022

Venue:  MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Where to Watch: ABC

 

FanDuel:  Giants -1; O/U 39.5

BetMGM: Giants -1; O/U 39.5

PointsBet:   

Cowboys: 1-1, last place NFC East (tied)

Giants: 2-0, 1st place NFC East (tied)

 Over the last few seasons the NFC East has been among the absolute worst divisions in football.  In fact it simply has been bad. The Philadelphia Eagles, The Washington Commanders, the New York Giants, and the Dallas Cowboys have all been struggling to overcome a variety of hardships… from young, overdrafted, unproductive quarterbacks, to bad coaching, to waffling ownership, to disillusioned fan bases, to actual team name changes two decades too late, but mostly just a string of bad teams who all seem destined to never win another playoff game.  It feels like it may be turning around this season for the Eagles… but the Cowboys and the Giants seem to only leave more uncertainty.  The Dallas Cowboys will be fielding their back-up quarterback as the starter since Dak Prescott got injured in the first game of that Amazingly HUGE contract that Jerry Jones ultimately caved and signed him to.  Dak’s contract also meant that several top Cowboys players had to leave town to get the money they deserved.  The Giants on the other hand are undefeated after two games…. Yet Vegas has poured over the matchup and decided on a simple 1 point spread for the Giants against the depleted Cowboys.  Vegas looked at the Giants closely and decided that this would be as close to a pick’em as there is.  

 

Week 2 of the season brought the Dallas Cowboys their first win of the season against the surprisingly out of sync Cincinnati Bengals 20-17.  The Bengals are so out of sync that they are now the first defending AFC champion to start the next season 0-2 since 1999.  QB Cooper Rush came out of the gate on fire… he orchestrated the teams first two drives to touchdowns with both drives going for 75 yards.  The Cowboys would not score a touchdown again the rest of the game… but the defense was able to hold off the Bengals while the Cowboys spent the final 3 quarters of football only adding two field goals.  The Cowboys defense may have been the bigger story of the day than the backup QB… They sacked Joe Burrow six times while also getting a super timely stop by CB Trevon Diggs (brother of Buffalo’s Stephen, but you knew that) which forced a punt with 1:09 left on the clock.  Everyone should have been amazed that the Bengals didn’t go for it on 4th and 2… but the Cowboys aren’t complaining.

 

The New York Giants are on a 2 game winning streak to open the season. They have beaten the lousy Carolina Panthers 19-16 and the lousy Tennessee Titans 21-20.  Two very close games… Two absolute wins ATS.  There are Neighborhood guys in Queens that are up several thousand dollars on the Giants for the first time in a while. Shockingly the quarterback is still draft bust Daniel Jones… the man who mastered the turnover. Taken 9 picks after Daniel Jones was Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins… then in the second round Missouri QB Drew Lock… and in the third round West Virginia’s Will Grier… So, the Giants had the misfortune of drafting a quarterback during a terrible year for a quarterback… and they really needed somebody because they had stayed with QB Eli Manning a year or two too long.  But enough history… the thing to remember about these Giants is they are the only undefeated team (after two weeks) to be below league average in points scored, total yards and passing yards.  The entire team rides on the shoulders of RB Saquon Barkley and the running game.  This actually may be an advantage against the Cowboys as their entire defensive roster has been built to stop the pass (like most defenses in the league).  Saqoun Barkley will hit the hole on play action with only LB Anthony Barr there to stop him… Barr is a Minnesota Vikings legend that was cut by the Vikings right before this season because he is mostly used up… He was signed by the Cowboys who found themselves desperately thin at middle linebacker… especially since they will be rushing all-star Micah Parsons from the edge instead of playing traditional OLB. RB Saquon Barkley will have a big day… win or lose.

 

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DAL: 1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U, 0-0 in road games.

NYG: 2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U, 1-0 in home games.

The Dallas Cowboys have come out of Week 2: 31st in scoring with 11.5 points per game, 26th in total yards with 290.5 per game, 21st in passing yards with 201.5 per game, and 23rd in rushing yards with 89 per game.  The numbers are bad but you have to remember they include a terrible Dak Prescott day from Week 1.  It is shocking how locked into Ezekiel Elliot’s contract this team is… i need his agent! (and some talent)... It would seem that they must have considered cutting Elliot and using that money elsewhere?... But the cap hit would be too large right now.  (it will happen eventually)

The New York Giants have come out of Week 2: 16th in scoring with 20 points per game, 22nd in total yards with 329.5 per game, 31st in passing yards with 159 per game, and 5th in rushing yards with 170.5 per game.  People gave the Giants a lot of flack for drafting a running back so high (2nd overall)... imagine this team if they hadn’t… there would be no offense whatsoever.  He should be due a real payday… that will sink the Giants chances of building the roster…. But still Saquon has been the team.

The Cowboys came out of Week 2: 6th in deafening total yards with 300.5 per game, 6th in defending passing yards with 180 per game, but 19th in defending rushing yards with 120.5 per game.  

The Giants came out of Week 2: 12th in defending total yards with 317, 10th in defending passing yards with 197.5 per game, 18th in defending rushing yards with 119.5 per game, and 9th in defending points with 18 allowed per game.

 

Our prediction for Monday, September 26th is…. Giants 24 - Cowboys 17

 

Don’t look for an amazing offensive back and forth.  But do bet the Giants.  The Cowboys won their first game against the bengals with Cooper Rush… but the expectations have risen for Cooper and he doesn’t have enough experience to walk through that door.

 

The bet here is on the Giants.  What we have seen so far is the Giants win close games against bad teams.  The numbers say that the Cowboys are a bad team.  They also say that both defenses are pretty good… but that the big advantage will be for the Giants in the running game.  If the Giants are feeling squirrely and want to try some passes they will have to do it off play action to keep LB Micah Parsons from burying QB Daniel Jones 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

 

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The Giants are 166-98 ATS as a home favorite since 1983 (+58 UNITS)

The Cowboys are 46-23 ATS as underdogs the last 5 seasons (+20.7 UNITS)

 

Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott OUT ** CB T Diggs Prob (personal) ** LB Micah Parsons PROB (he will play, if he doesn’t the Cowboys lose big) illness, WR Michael Gallup (knee) Prob

Giants: The Giants have listed 11 position players as Quest, They are all expected to play.  The players expected to miss go back to preseason injuries and aren’t in the game plan anyway.

 

Cowboys: QB Cooper Rush… Can this young, unknown QB go 3-0 in his first 3 starts in the NFL?... He doesn’t really jump off the page in any area… but if he can game manage?

Giants: QB Daniel Jones… Can this draft bust save his career by simply not fumbling the ball?  His job is simple.. Provide enough pass attempts without interceptions to open holes for the running game.  If he can do THAT, the Giants have already won.

 

Cowboys: QB Cooper Rush, RB Ezekiel Elliot, WR Noah Brown, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Jake Ferguson, LT Tyler Smith, LG Matt Farniok, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin, RT Terence Steele

 

Giants: QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, FB Chris Myarick, WR Sterling Shepard, WR David Sills V, WR Kadarius Toney, LT Andrew Thomas, LG Ben Bredsen, C Jon Feliciano, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Evan Neal

 

 

Sunny Day, high of 74*, Humidity 51*, Wind 13 mph… should make for a beautiful night of football.