NFL Football: Cleveland Browns VS Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/08/2023

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 8th, 2023

Venue:  Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  Steelers -2.5, O/U 39.5

BetMGM:  Steelers -3, O/U 40.5

PointsBet:  Steelers -2.5, O/U 40

Browns: 7-9, 4th place AFC North

Steelers: 8-8, 3rd place AFC North

An AFC North battle between teams that are still trying to find answers on who they are and where they are going.  The Cleveland Browns had a very good roster on paper at the start of the season, except at quarterback.  That is because they wouldn’t have their actual starting quarterback until Week 12… because of suspension for a 2-year odyssey of sexual assault allegations. But once QB Deshaun Watson did get the green light to play he was as rusty as a tin can in the woods for a decade.  It will take time.  The answer the Browns are looking for is why the defense didn’t hold up as they should have on paper?  The Pittsburgh Steelers have a head coach who has never had a losing season… and for a long stretch this year it looked like the streak would break… but with just 1 game left to play… They are .500… and that streak could go forever.  In Pittsburgh the belief is they have found their starting QB in Kenny Pickett… even though he has very small hands. Still Coach Tomlin believes in Kenny and the community believes in Kenny… and that does count for a lot.  The Browns do not have a shot at the playoffs… but the Steelers do.  The Steelers would need some help from a few other teams losing… but step 1 is a win over the Browns. 

The Cleveland Browns have won 2 of their last 3 games but it just wasn’t enough to get out of the deep hole they have dug this season.  They won their last game against the Washington Commanders 24-10. In that game QB Deshaun Watson completed 9 of 18 passes for 169 yards and 3 TDs.  He also scrambled for 31 yards.  RB Nick Chubb pulled a lot of weight in the game with 104 yards on 14 carries.  WR Amari Cooper caught only 3 passes but walked off the field with 105 yards and 2 TDs.  This Browns team has a full complement of offensive weapons.   Pass rusher Miles Garrett logged 1.5 of the team’s 3 sacks to bring his season total to 8.5… Not the type of season he expected, but still pretty good.  The lack of Browns turnovers was huge.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have pulled off a massive turnaround with a 3-game winning streak.  All of the last 3 games were also wins ATS.  They last beat the Baltimore Ravens 16-13 with rookie QB Kenny Pickett completing 15 of 27 passes for 168 yards, 1 TD, and ZERO interceptions. RB Najee Harris held up his end and then some with 111 yards rushing. RB Jaylen Warren added 76 yards rushing that included a long 31 yard dash. Pass rusher TJ Watt had a sack to bring his season total to 10. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick pulled down an interception and the Steelers won the day.

These teams played each other in Week 3 of the season with the result being a Browns win 29-17… Both teams had different quarterbacks then and different expectations for the season.

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CLE: 7-9, 8-8 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U, 3-4 on the road.

PIT: 8-8, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O?U, 3-4 at home.

The Browns are 16th in scoring with 21.7 points per game, 13th in total yards with 351.7 per game, 22nd in passing with 204.4 yards per game, and 6th in rushing yards with 147.2 per game.

The Steelers are 29th in scoring with 17.5 points per game, 23rd in total yards with 321.9 per game, 24th in passing yards with 201.4 per game, and 17th in rushing yards with 120.6 per game.

The Browns defense is 11th in defending yards with 331.1 per game allowed, 7th in pass defense with 196.7 per game allowed, 25th in rushing yards with 134.4 per game allowed, and 18th in total points with 22.1 per game allowed.

The Steelers defense is 14th in yards allowed with 331.9 per game, 20th in passing yards per game allowed with 225.4 per game, 7th in rushing yards per game allowed, and 11 in points with 20.8 per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 8th is… Steelers 21 - Browns 20

 

Bet on the Browns to beat this spread.  The Browns simply have a better defense.  The Steelers have a rookie quarterback that will still be figuring things out… especially Garrett and Clowney being in his face.  I think the Browns will actually get the win… but my heart says the Steelers have a coach that deserves a postseason shot and another winning record.  Still, if I put my money down… It is going on the Browns.

 

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The Steelers are 4-2 ATS versus Cleveland the last 3 seasons.

Pittsburgh is 13-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.

The Browns are 1-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

Browns: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper, WR Donovan People-Jones, TE David Njoku, TE Harrisonn Barnes, LT Jedrick Wills JR, LG Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin

Steelers: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Najee Harris, WR George Pickens, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Steven Sims, TE Zach Gentry, LT Dan Moore JR, LG Kevin Dotson, C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, RT Chukwuma Okorafor

Cloudy, 41*, Humidity 80%, wind 8 mph.