Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, October 9th, 2022

Venue:  US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Where to Watch: FOX

 

FanDuel:  Bears +7.5, Vikings -7.5; O/U 44

BetMGM:  Bears +7.5, Vikings -7.5; O/U 44

PointsBet:  Bears +7.5, Vikings -7.5; O/U 44

 

Bears: 2-2, third place NFC North

Vikings: 3-1, tied for first place NFC North.

An NFC North absolute battle for survival.  The NFC North is not hiding any Super Bowl contenders outside of Green bay.  In fact the Lions are still the Lions.  The Bears have a simple problem… we don’t know who they are… or where they are going… They have also given us a decade to assume that they are going nowhere.  The Vikings seem to be building to something great… but even Vikings fans have been talking about how great this team would be with a “real” quarterback.  I would assert that they have one… but then I’m capable of being wrong.  As far as quarterbacks go… The Bears have a not so great one.. Yet.  The Bears are waiting for Justin Fields to put everything together, but totally unprepared for the fact that a complete Justin Fields may not be an NFL starting quarterback?  This will all breakdown in a slurry of numbers… So let's check those numbers and make a safe bet.  (A safe bet is the most likely outcome… but with these teams it’s not about faith… it’s about numbers)

The Chicago Bears have yet to get the scoring out of the bottom of the barrel… or the passing out of the bottom of the barrel. They are however a great rushing team… Khalil Herbert is doing a great job from the running back spot while Justin Fields also scampers for a few every game.  Outside of that this is a terrible offense. WR Darnell Mooney leads the team in receiving with practically no impact on anything… They guy only has 121 yards after 4 games… That should not be your leading receiver ever… Of course it is not his fault as it is QB Justin Fields inability to complete a pass.  The Bears defense has a wild discrepancy with a 4th place standing in pass defense and a last place standing in rushing yards defense… That is wild.  It means that the corners are capable and waiting for the rest of the defense to catch up.  Of course against a good passing team those corners will not hold up if the D-Line and middle linebacker can not hold the option for longer than a second or two.

The Minnesota Vikings are an average offense to slightly above an average offense.  Their QB Kirk Cousins is much maligned… but throwing for slightly above league average.  He has help from WR Justin Jefferson… Justin walked into the league a second round pick and immediately became the #1 option… BTW The Green Bay Packers could have had him instead of QB Jordan Love if they hadn’t gotten rid of all those picks to get a guy that doesn’t play for them.  Ha!.  The Vikings are on the right track with Kirk and Justin… but the rushing game is splat.  RB Calvin Cook is OK… but the numbers just aren’t there this season.  This may be the result of scheme and coaching… but Dalvin will need to put his pride on the line and get a few more per game regardless. 

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CHI: 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U, 0-2 on the road.

MIN: 3-1, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 2-0 at home.

The Chicago Bears came out of Week 4 31st in scoring with 16 points per game, 31st in yards per game with 274.8, 32nd in passing yards per game with 97.5 per game, and 3rd in rushing yards with 177.2 per game.  The Bears have no choice but to keep running.  They get success nowhere else on the field.  A great thing would be if they instituted an entire offense of run/pass options.  I know that would be a very college thing to do… but this team has no other choice.

The Minnesota Vikings came out of Week 4 15th in scoring with 21.5 points per game, 17th in total yards with 344 per game, 13th in passing yards with 246 per game, and 22nd in rushing yards with 98 per game.  Wr Justin Jefferson is the real deal.  If he played with Josh Allen or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers… This guy would be on track to lead the league in everything.

The Chicago Bears defense is a dual sided coin… an awful example of “have it… need it”... They are 21st in defense of total yards with 351.8 yards per game, but 4th in passing yards defense with 168.5 per game, 32nd in rushing yards with 183.3 per game, and 11th in defense of points with 19.3.  The takeaway here is not enough teams have run against this rotten run defense.  If they had?... They would have won bigger and more often.

The Minnesota Vikings defense came out of Week 4 with really bad numbers.  They guarantee that the Vikings will need to be in shootouts.  They are 27th in defense of total yards with 394.5 yards per game, 26th in passing defense with 263.5 yards per game, 23rd in rushing yards per game with 131 per game, and 12th in defense of points scored with 20 per game. They will greatly benefit from playing a bad passing team.  All their numbers will go up, win or lose.  They will win BTW.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, October 9th is…. Vikings 29 - Bears 17

 

Bet on the Vikings and bet it big.  Yes, the Viking defense is terrible but the Bears offense is equally terrible.  So the Vikings D will finally get a chance to shine… while the Vikings offense will finally get a chance to keep doing what they are doing.  Without shame, without burn, without worry.

 

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The Bears are 0-2 ATS as a road underdog.

The Bears are 1-5 when the total is between 42.5 to 45 points ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Vikings are 0-2 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points the last 3 seasons.

 

Bears: OL C Whitehair Out ** K C Santos Prob ** WR B Pringle Out ** G A Leatherwood Out ** Plus 6 guys are listed as Quest but will play.

Vikings: The Vikings have the best IR in the league.  They only have 2 guys listed as Quest and 2 guys listed as Prob…. S L Cline is on the I-R officially… That is it.

 

 Bears: QB Justin Fields… Every game for the Bears is a national audition for Justin Fields.Can he hit passes?... Is the only question.  So far the only answer is no.  However we are talking about a guy who was a rookie last season… The pop could still come.

Vikings: WR Justin Jefferson.  The guy is a stud wherever he might play.. He happens to play in a system with a quarterback who may not be the best but he does have a big arm.  If Justin breaks a few big plays… The Bears will have a long day.

Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB Khalil Herbert, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Equanimous St Brown, TE Cole Kmet, TE Trevon Wesco, LT Braxton Jones, LG Cody Whitehair, C Sam Mustipher, RG Lucas Patrick, RT Larry Borom

Vikings: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR KJ Osborn, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen, TE Johnny Mundt, LT Christain Darrisaw, LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garett Bradbury, RG Ed Ingram, RT Brian O’Neil