NFL Football: Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/18/2022

 

Game Time: 8:25 pm ET, Sunday, August 18th, 2022

Venue:  Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Where to Watch: NBC

 

DraftKings:  Spread:  Packers -9.5, Bears +9.5, 41.5 O/U

BetMGM:  Spread:  

PointsBet:  Spread:  

 

Bears: 1-0 NFC North

Packers: 0-1 NFC North

Wow!  Another bombshell large point spread for the coming week!  The team that lost Game 1 is favored over the team that won Game 1 by… by… by 9.5 points!!  That is such a big spread for the NFL.  Vegas must know where Aaron Rodgers will find inspiration for trusting his rookies… or maybe the potential return of Allen Lazard is so impactful that it is the equivalent of say… the missing Devonte Adams?... It is seemingly silly.  However.. As Aaron famously said last season, he OWNS these Bears.  He always has.  Justin Fields getting a win in the rain, against the team that knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the playoffs last season, is meaningless if the team can’t show up against the Packers.  So where is the Great Betting Opportunity?... Let’s check the numbers and see!

The Chicago Bears won their first game of the season against the San Francisco 49ers… it should have been a tough game and it was… but the Bears got it.  It does take some of the shine off of it to know that new San Francisco QB Trey Lance had Tiffany, Mercedes, and Lexusss on his mind… and he can’t hit the side of a barn past 15 yards.  Still the Bears had a 19 point run after going down by 10 points in the first ¾ of the game.  The final score of 19-10 was hard fought.  Fields finished the game with 8 of 17 passing with 121 yards and 2 scores for a passer rating of 85.7.  (That is the reason for the spread).

The Green Bay Packers lost their first game against the Minnesota Packers (another NFC North rival) by a final score of 23-7… Of course that may not mean much since the Packers lost Game 1 of last season 38-3 to the New Orleans Saints.  Maybe Aaron or LaFleur get opening day jitters, maybe both?  Aaron Rodgers finished the game with 195 passing yards, 0 TD and 1 interception… for a 64.7 completion rate and a 67.6 QB rating.  Aaron Rodgers had only 4 interceptions all of last season… after one game this year he is at 1…. The man has not had double digit interceptions since 2010.  He has had much better games.

Part of judging this matchup… must involve deleting both the 49ers and the Vikings from your memory.  Different teams, different weather, different season from your expectations of either.

 

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Bears: 1-0, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Packers: 0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

 

The Chicago Bears finished Game 1 22nd in scoring with 19 points, 32nd in yards with 204, 32nd in passing yards with 105, and 18th in rushing yards with 99.

The Green Bay Packers came out of Game 1 30th in points scored with 7, 19th in yards with 338, 16th in passing yards with 227, and 14th in rushing yards with 111.

 

The Bears defense came out of Game 1 12th in defense of total yards with 331, 3rd in defense of passing yards with 155, 26th in defense of rushing yards with 176, and 8th in takeaways with 2… You have to remember that they were lined up against a team starting Trey Lance and not Jimmy G.

The Packers defense finished game 1 25th in defense of total yards with 395, 24th in defense of passing yards with 269, 21st in defense of rushing yards with 126, and 27th in takeaways with 0.

Our Prediction for the Sunday, September 18th game is… Packers 24 - Bears 21

 

The Bears will not beat the Packers… but they will cover the ridiculous 9.5 point spread.  Why?... Only because the Packers looked lost on defense regardless of how sputtering the Packers offense was last game.  Yes, the Bears are not the Vikings… but it also will not be heavily raining on the Bears either.  The Bears can get stops and can most likely score the ball a few times… The bet is for the Bears to cover.  The best Monday morning story will of course be “What is wrong with Rodgers?!”  He won’t all of a sudden trust the kid WRs who keep dropping balls… he never has.

 

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The Bears are 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points… long streaks break.

The Packers are 10-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 3 seasons.

 

Bears: G Alex Leatherwood - signed off the waiver list he's just not ready yet to play. ** WR V Jones Jr Quest ** WR N Harry Out ** 

Packers: LB Q Walker Prob ** CB K Nixon Prob ** C J Hanson Prob ** G J Runyon Quest

 

Bears: Justin Fields-  The kid in charge got a win in his first game… to keep building the program he will need to show he can do it again.

Packers: Aaron Rodgers- The ancient one missed receivers like he was still seeing tracers.  The party won’t stop here for this great lover… but he will need a win to prove it’s not his bedtime.  Aaron’s Packers have always had a dominant receiver… plus a great defense and a good O-line… This season brings question marks at all 3… Yet we are supposed to believe that giving a graying veteran 50 million dollars a year will compensate for those question marks?

Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Dante Pettis, WR Equanimeous ST Brown, TE Cole Kmet, LT Braxton Jones, LG Cody Whitehair, C Sam Mustipher, RG Teven Jenkins, RT Larry Borom

 

Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Christain Watson, WR Sammy Watkins, TE Robert Tonyan, TE Mercedes Lewis, LT Yosh Nijman, LG Jon Runyan, C Josh Myers, RG Jake Hanson, RT Royce Newman

 

Bears: Matt “I look like a kid, but I’m old like a 91 Chevy” Eberflus

Packers: Matt “ I look like a kid, and I am a kid” LaFleur

 

Partly Cloudy, 82*, Humidity 73%, wind 11 mph.  That is the highs for the day.  This is a night game… the temp will drop a bit, the humidity will stay.  The wind may pick up.  The precipitation chance will still remain around 20%.