NFL Football: Chicago Bears VS Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

by James Q

Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022

NFL Football: Chicago Bears VS Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

 
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 1st, 2023
Venue:  Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Where to Watch:  FOX

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

FanDuel:  Lions -5.5, O/U 52.5
BetMGM:  Lions -6, O/U 52
PointsBet:  Lions -6, O/U 52

Season Record

Bears: 3-12, 4th place (last) NFC North
Lions: 7-8, 2nd place NFC North

An NFL NFC North battle of the worst and “the” getting better.  The NFC North has the Vikings… They are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs and guaranteed the division win.  Then the have the Packers and the Lions who are tied at 7-8… and need 2 straight wins to make the playoffs.  Then they have the Bears… yuck.  The Chicago Bears have an identity problem.  They also have an addiction to losing… they have been losing for years and years.  The identity issue is of course that the league has changed since the 85’ Bears won the Championship… no longer can you only draft on defense and march a middle of the road quarterback out to get some wins.  The Bears braintrust screws up drafts… and they have been doing so for years.  They desperately need to know if their current QB, Justin Fields, is the guy… But it is insanely hard to judge since he has no weapons and a soft offensive line.  He could be great.. He could be an also-ran.. We just don't know.  The Detroit Lions have no identity problem… they have been bad for decades and all of a sudden are winning (not really, but more than usual) because of a good offense.  Former Rams QB Jarrod Goff got to watch his old team win the Super Bowl without him. Then he got to work.  Jarrod will never be accused of being the best quarterback in the league that is why he was traded… but he still has a big arm on a big body… and he has been in the league long enough to be a full-fledged veteran by now. The Lions are getting better in reality while the Bears are convincing themselves they have gotten better on paper.  Who is the great betting opportunity?

The Chicago Bears are on an 8-game losing streak. They lead the league in rushing yards, but that stopped being good in the late 80’s.  They are last in passing yards in the league… and that stopped being a good thing in the late 80’s also.  It turns out any team that wants to win needs to be great at passing and just ok in the running game. On top of that the Bears have a bad defense… a total tragedy for any team that is bad at passing but good at running.  If you can't grind?... why try?  QB Justin Fields has not answered a single question about his long term prospects unless that question is “how bad does a team need to be for a young athletic quarterback to not improve it?”.  The Bears are victims of a bad brain trust. They do not know how to build… so they may not know how to improve.  They lost their last game to the Buffalo Bills 35-13.  In that game QB Justin Fields completed 15 of 23 passes for 119 yards and 1 TD. Backup QB Nathan Peterman came in to add 3 of 5 for 25 yards and 1 INT.  Bad day all around.

The Detroit Lions snapped a 3-game winning streak with a loss to the Carolina Panthers 37-23… It was a bad loss against a close spread.  Fortunately for Vegas almost no one bets on Carolina.  In the loss QB Jarrod Goff completed 25 of 42 passes for 355 yards and 3 TDs.  A great quarterbacking day!  The team could not overcome Jarrod losing a fumble and Carolina having a very big day in the running game. Detroit’s defense is very soft, very weak, and very bad.  Detroit’s wins all season long have come from the offense outscoring instead of the defense stopping anybody.  This will need a huge overhaul.


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Chicago Bears VS Detroit Lions Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

CHI: 3-12, 5-9-1 ATS, 10-5 O/U, 1-6 in road games.
DET: 7-8, 10-5 ATS, 10-5 O/U, 4-4 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Bears are 22nd in scoring with 20.2 points per game, 26th in total yards with 316.3 per game, 32nd in passing yards with 136.5 per game, and 1st in rushing yards with 179.7 per game.

The Lions are 5th in scoring with 26.1 points per game, 4th in total yards with 375.5 per game, 8th in passing yards with 254.9 per game, 16th in rushing yards with 120.7 per game.

Defensive Analysis

The Bears defense is 24th in total yards with 360.3 per game allowed, 12th in passing yards with 209.1 per game allowed, 30th in rushing yards with 151.2 per game allowed, and 31st in points allowed with 26.2 per game.

The Lions defense is 32nd in total yards with 409.9 per game allowed, 30th in passing yards with 264.1 per game allowed, 28th in rushing yards with 145.9 per game allowed, and 32nd in points allowed with 26.7 per game.

Chicago Bears VS Detroit Lions Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, January 1st is… Lions 28 - Bears 13
 
The Bears are spent.  QB Justin Fields may be held out. The sky has never been UP so it really can’t fall.  Bet on the Lions.  Yes the Lions have a terrible defense but the offense will march down the field against the bears possession after possession .
 
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NFL Betting Trends

Detroit is 17-12 ATS versus Chicago at Detroit since 1992.
Chicago is 0-4 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
Detroit is 7-2 ATS in dome games.

Starting Lineups

Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery, WR Velus Jones JR, WR Byron Pringle, WR Dante Perris, TE Cole Kmet, LT Braxton Jones, LG Larry Borom, C Sam Mustipher, RG Michael Schofield III, RT Riley Reid

Lions: QB Jared Goff, RB D’Andre Swift, WR DJ Clark Jr, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Brock Wright, LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Evan Brown, RT Penei Sewell

Weather Forecast

Mostly Cloudy, Humidity 83%, Wind 9 mph.  We have a 20% chance of snowflakes dropping but melting into a nasty cold rain.  Good thing Detroit has a roof. That way we get to see actual football.  I’m talking to you, Buffalo and Chicago!


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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