NFL Football: Arizona Cardinals VS Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/01/2023

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 1st, 2023

Venue:  Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel:  Falcons -3.5, O/U 40.5

BetMGM:  Falcons -4, O/U 41

PointsBet: Falcons -4, O/U 41

Cardinals: 4-11, 4th place NFC WEST

Falcons: 5-10, 4th pace NFC South

An NFC matchup of real terrible teams.  Real last place dogs that are missing QB talent.  They also have holes everywhere else.  Rebuilding is the off-season goal… but meanwhile they still have two more games to play!  How do they even go about it?  Do they chant battle cries at practice?... What would be the point?.  Both these teams are out of contention and making vacation plans… that can cause the results of games like this to be very squirrelly.  So what is the Great Betting Opportunity?  Where can you make money on this game?  Let’s check the injury list and the numbers and place a simple winning wager.

The Arizona Cardinals are still a dumpster fire.  I called them that in their first game of the season… and have not changed my mind.  The key problem the Cardinals have is buyer’s remorse.  They did not want QB Kyler Murray at a high price because he is too small to survive an entire season without injury… BUT they signed him anyway… to a very high price!  Now just 15 games into that great big signing?... Kyler is injured and closed down for the season… his injury recovery will also limit his offseason… Next season he will also be too small and overpaid.  The Cardinals have bought themselves probably half a decade of spinning their wheels into nothingness.  The Cardinals are on a 5-game losing streak.  They lost their last game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-16 (further proving that Tom Brady is spent)... but it was a BIG WIN ATS.  They covered… because they have a “not so bad” defense… the numbers are bad… but really with JJ Watt earning million dollar bonuses for sacks?... They are not so bad.  In the loss the Cardinals got 24 completions on 45 attempts from 3rd string QB Trace McSorely for 217 yards, 0 TD, and 1 INT.  RB James Conner scored the lone touchdown on 79 yards rushing on 15 carries.  The 3rd string QB not only threw an interception but also fumbled twice… losing both of them.

The Atlanta Falcons moved on from QB Matt Ryan… but had nowhere to move to.  They played QB Marcus Mariotta for the most part but have since made the switch to bright faced kid QB Desmond Ridder.  The Falcons are on a 3-game winning streak with no motivation to break the streak.  Young Tight End Kyle Pitts had season ending knee surgery back in November.  He was heralded upon his arrival in the 2020 draft.. What the team actually needed was offensive lineman… or possibly a quarterback.  The Falcons lost their last game to the Baltimore Ravens in “the battle of the birds”... this coming game will be another “battle of the birds”... in that 17-9 loss the Falcons got 22 completions on 33 passing attempts from QB Desmond Ridder for 218 yards 0 TD and ) INT.  In fact the team had Zero TDs all day… It was a simple 3 field goal day.  They simply do not have very much visible talent. They rely heavily on the running game… but in the absence of wins?... What is the point of relying heavily on the run?  Just air it out and cross your fingers.

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ARI: 4-11, 7-8 ATS, 8-7 O/U 3-3 in road games.

ATL: 5-10, 8-7 ATS, 6-9 O/U, 4-3 in home games.

The Cardinals are 21st in scoring with 20.5 points per game, 22nd in total yards with 327 per game, 18th in passing yards with 214.6 per game, and 20th in rushing yards with 112.4 per game.

The Falcons are 17th in scoring with 21 points per game, 27th in total yards with 315.8 per game, 31st in passing yards with 155 per game, and 3rd in rushing yards with 160.8 per game.

The Cardinals are 22nd in defense of total yards with 354.8 per game, 26th in defense of passing yards with 240.5 per game, 12th in defense of rushing yards with 114.3 per game, and 30th in defense of total points with 26.1 per game.

The Falcons are 28th in defense of total yards with 373 per game, 25th in defense of passing yards with 239.5 per game, 24th in defense of rushing yards with 133.5 allowed per game, and 23rd in defense of points with 23.3 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 1st is… Cardinals 27 - Falcons 13

 

Bet on the Cardinals.  It is simple.  RB James Conner will have a big day against the Falcons defense.  Trace McSorley could not outshine the greatest quarterback of all time last week… but he will be able to perform better than Desmond Ridder.  Plus the Cardinals defense has been (at times) dominant over average teams… How much better will they be over a terrible team?,.. Especially with a million dollar JJ Watt bonus on the line?  

 

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Atlanta is 7-3 ATS versus Arizona at Atlanta since 1992.

Atlanta is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.

The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points the last 3 seasons.

Cardinals: QB Trace McSorley, RB James Conner, WR Deandre Hopkins, WR AJ Green, WR Greg Dortch, TE Trey McBride, LT Josh Jones, LG Max Garcia, C Billy Price, RG Will Hernandez, RT Kelvin Beachum

Falcons: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cardarrelle Patterson, WR Drake London, WR Damiere Byrd, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Parker Hesse, LT Jake Matthews, LG Elijah Wilkinson, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary

Partly Cloudy, 66*, Humidity 80%, wind 8 mph.  Weather right now is usually cold… it is usually terrible.  This will be nice and shouldn’t interfere with the actual football we expect to watch.