NFL Divisional Round Player Props

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Jan 18, 2024
Lamar Jackson Over 51.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Lamar will get his first playoff action since January of 2021 on Saturday afternoon against the Texans. In his first four playoff appearances, Jackson is averaging 92 rushing yards per game. He has improved as a passer since his early career, but reliance on his rushing skills will always show up in big games. In a win or go home scenario, the safety of sliding becomes secondary and Lamar will rely on his legs as often as the Ravens need to keep drives alive. Considering Jackson’s gambreaking speed, one play could be all it takes to hit his rushing yards prop.  

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-120)
Love is as hot as any QB currently, and has thrown for 2+ TDs in nine of the last ten games. Green Bay’s offensive line is playing lights out, completely dominating Dallas last week in the run game (Aaron Jones 118 rush yards) as well as pass protection (0 sacks). San Francisco will be a whole new test on Saturday night, however, Dallas was a statistically better defense during the regular season in terms of yards allowed per game. If the Packers can hold strong at the line of scrimmage, Love has almost limitless young weapons to spread the ball to. 

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+105)
Baker has found a perfect home in Tampa, clearly loving his veteran studs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, throwing 2+ TDs in nine of his last twelve games. The Lions defense ranks second best in rushing yards allowed while sixth last in passing yards per game. The Buccaneers already struggle to run the ball normally, so facing such a weak pass defense will play right into Tampa’s hands. In perfect conditions in Detroit's dome, Baker will have every opportunity to put the team on his right shoulder and carry the afterthought Bucs to the NFC Championship.  

Josh Allen over 43.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Similar to Lamar Jackson, Allen will throw all safety to the wind and look to run as often as needed to finally beat the Chiefs on Sunday night. At 6'5 240, Allen is a load and can pick up first downs at will using his legs, just use his 52 yard touchdown run against Pittsburgh last week for reference. In nine playoff games, Allen is averaging 55 yards rushing per game, showing the significant increase from his regular season career average of 38 ypg. Kansas City ranked fourth in passing yards allowed during the regular season so expect a run heavy game plan from the Bills, including plenty of designed runs for the likely hurdling (at least once) Josh Allen. 


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