NFL Divisional Round Saturday Player Props

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Jan 15, 2021
We went 1-2 with our NFL Wild Card props in this piece last week so we'll be looking to get back on the winning side of the ledger this week, with two NFL Divisional Round matchups in the offing on Saturday. While player prop numbers are generally moving targets, the following two plays are widely available (lines taken from BetOnline).

Rams vs. Packers

Packers RB Aaron Jones over 69.5 rushing yards.

Aaron Jones should be front and center in the Packers offensive gameplan on Saturday afternoon. Game script clearly plays into Jones favor with Green Bay favored by nearly a touchdown at the time of writing. Note that the Packers showed a great deal of confidence in Jones in last year's playoff run, increasing his workload after he took a backseat to Jamaal Williams at times during the regular season. Off a healthy regular season, Jones is well-positioned to take the reins and ultimately put this game away should Green Bay build a lead in this game. While the Rams do offer a tough test with a stout run defense, their biggest concern should be on pressuring QB Aaron Rodgers and clamping down on WR Davante Adams. They'll likely be content to give up chunk plays to Jones on the ground if it means limiting the Pack to 3's rather than 7's at the end of drives. I have Jones getting north of 80 yards running the football in this game.

Ravens vs. Bills

Ravens TE Mark Andrews over 55.5 receiving yards

I absolutely love the way this play sets up after Andrews took a backseat to WR Hollywood Brown in last week's win over the Titans. Andrews caught just four passes for 41 yards in that contest but draws a mouth-watering matchup against the Bills here. Note that only one team allowed more receiving yards to tight ends than Buffalo over the course of the regular season. Even Colts veteran TE Jack Doyle was able to find plenty of open field last week as Indy tight ends abused the Bills defense. With the Ravens likely to be playing from behind for some of this game, we should see QB Lamar Jackson rely heavily on Andrews to move the sticks. While I also like Andrews to score a touchdown in this game, I'll back him to get over the very reasonable receiving yards total, banking on a 70+ yard performance. 

Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games!

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