NFL: Detroit Lions VS Chicago Bears and Picks 11/13/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 13th, 2022

Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel: point spread: Bears -3; O/U 48.5

DraftKings:  Bears -3; O/U 48.5

Caesars:  Bears -3; O/U 48.5

 

Lions: 2-6, 4th place (last) NFC North

Bears: 3-6, 3rd place NFC North.

An NFC North matchup between two very bad teams… who both are both coming off of good weeks.  The NFC North is littered with bad teams this season… the Packers, the Bears, and the Lions… all bad.  The Detroit Lions however just played a rare fun game by getting their second win on the season against the Green Bay Packers (a bet I advised you make in this very column,,, yay me!) 15 - 9.  The loss was more of an indictment against the Packers… but still the Lions got to shine a bit on National TV.  It’s not wise to expect the Lions to win games… it is however not a bad idea to investigate the point spread on Lions games… The Lions are 4-4 ATS… not great, but when judged accurately can be a nice moneymaker.  The Chicago Bears did not win their last game and have only won 1 more game, all season, than the atrocious Lions.  The fun part of their week was watching QB Juston Fields show up against a good team in the Miami Dolphins.  The Bear lost 35-32 but Justin had 17 of 28 for 123 yards with 3 TD’s and 0 interceptions.  Not eye popping passing numbers.. But Fields also had 15 rushes for 178 Yards and 1 TD.  The whole point of this Bears season was to judge whether Fields could be the QB going forward…. It was a great Justin Fields day.  He hit 6 different receivers… he had no interceptions, no fumbles, plenty of rushing yards. Fields has provided enough glimpses to show that if he had a slightly better defense and a bit more protection?... The kid could be the guy.

The Detroit Lions are not winners… Their two wins this season have come against the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Commanders… Everyone else is also beating those teams. What the Lions are however is a good offense with a terrible defense.  They will be a top three pick in the coming NFL draft… QB Jared Goff is effective but not in demand elsewhere… and they have extra picks coming courtesy of the Los Angeles Rams (including a first rounder this season from a losing Rams team).  This means they are in the NFL draft catbird seat.  They could easily extend Goff for smaller money than he has been getting and than his peers are getting… They could then use all those good picks (they will draft at or near the top of every round) to fill out the defense and get some more offensive line help. This Lions team (with an already working offense) is poised to build quickly… but could they screw it up?

The Chicago Bears have a struggling offense everywhere except the running game where they lead the league and QB Justin Fields is leading the team in rushing yardage. The Bears defense is soft.  This combination makes the Bears not likely to win very often this season, but like the Lions they are poised for an immediate turnaround.  If Justin Fields is THAT GUY?  The pain of the recent decade will recede. Justin Fields needs weapons and protection.  They have the worst passing game in the league but the best rushing game in the league… If they can somehow find a way to boost that passing?... They would see immediate results in the win column.  What helps the Bears dramatically is that the Packers seem to be falling apart… a slow motion result of trading picks to draft Jordan Love 3 seasons ago. The Bears will be there to happily fill the gap. To make matters better… Both the Bears and Lions will need to keep losing as the Draft looms ahead… but the Bears think they have enough proof at the Quarterback position to move forward.

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RECENT FORM

DET: 2-6, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U, 0-3 in road games.

CHI: 3-6, 4-4-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U, 2-2 in home games.

The Lions are 12th in scoring with 23.5 points per game, 13th in total yards with 377.2 per game, 8th in passing yards with 243.1 per game, and 9th in rushing yards with 134.1 per game.

The Bears are 21st in scoring with 20.8 points per game, 18th in total yards with 321.1 per game, 32nd in passing yards with 125.7 per game, and 1st in rushing yards with 195.4 per game.

The Lions defense is 32nd in defending total yards with 417.3 yards per game, 29th in defending passing yards with 265.8 allowed per game, 31st in defending rushing yards with 148.8 yards per game, and 32nd in defending points with 29.3 per game allowed.  The Lions D is the softest anywhere… it couldn’t stop a cold if it was Vitamin D and C.

The Bears defense is 18th in defense of total yards with 347.9 per game allowed, 10th in defending passing yards with 200.7 allowed per game, 30th in defense of rushing yards with 147.2 per game allowed, and 21st in defense of total points with 24 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 13th is… Bears 22 - Lions 17

 

Bet on the Bears.  QB Justin Fields will get to press his running game and further develop his passing game against the worst D in the league.

 

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The Lions are 20-16 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

The Lions are 18-36 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1996.

The Bears are 64-99 ATS in games where the total was between 42.5 and 49 points since 1996.

The Bears are 12-3 ATS off a home Cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1996.

Lions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Kalif Raymond, WR Amon-Ra St Brown, TE Brock Wright, OT Dan Skipper, LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Evan Brown, RT Penei Sewell

Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery, FB Khari Blasingame, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Equanimous St Brown, TE Cole Kmet, LT Braxton Jones, LG Cody Whitehair, C Sam Mustipher, RG Teven Jenkins, RT Riley Reiff

Partly cloudy and cold.  Humidity 47%.  Wind 11 mph.  39*  Chicago weather will be doing what it has always done… selling hot chocolate.