NFL: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Previews and Picks 10/17/2022

 

Game Time:  8:15 PM ET, Monday, October 17th, 2022

Venue:  Sofi Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch:  ESPN, ESPN Deportes

 

FanDuel: point spread: Broncos +4.5, Chargers +4.5; O/U 45.5

DraftKings: 

BetMGM: Broncos +4.5, Chargers +4.5; O/U 45.5

Caesars: Broncos +4.5, Chargers +4.5; O/U 45.5

 

Broncos: 2-3, 3rd place AFC West

Chargers: 3-2, 2nd place AFC West

A MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL matchup of AFC West rivals!  It is not a highly touted game though.  Fans feel that the script has been written for the Denver Broncos.  In short they signed an undersized, boy scout, veteran quarterback for almost 50 million dollars a year… and he looks washed.  He looks incapable of winning football.  The Broncos were touted as a good roster that needed a general… Both are in question now after the first 5 weeks.  Denver is not fielding a winner… These guys lost to the Seahawks, Raiders, and Colts…None of whom are good teams expected to do much this season.  They beat the Texans which everyone should…. And they beat the 49ers by 1 point in a low scoring affair right as the 49ers were breaking QB Jimmy G back into the system he didn’t even get a playbook for until Week 1 of the season…. The Chargers on the other hand have a young exciting quarterback and a good roster… and everyone including that exciting quarterback is suffering from dings and bruises and injuries…blah blah blah.  The Chargers may forever be on the Mount Rushmore of disappointing teams with potential.  The Chargers do make me happy though… They are 4-1 ATS this season and I have bet on them all 5 times!!  Let’s check the injury list closely… then the numbers… then let’s make a solid prediction to grow that bankroll.

The Denver Broncos have lots and lots of trouble scoring points… Their two wins were desperately low scoring affairs.  Two of their losses were desperately low scoring affairs.  QB Russell Wilson is indeed struggling leading an offense that is below average in every category and 2nd to last in scoring. Yuck.  The Denver Broncos have a great defense though.  They have the sort of defense that puts lots of pressure on the offense to turn things around and turn them around now.  They have a pass rush, good linebackers and great pass coverage.  The defense has it all in Mile High.  The thing to worry about is that this great defense has lost LB Randy Gregory (a new hire from the cowboys) indefinitely with a knee injury.  He was a big piece and they lost to the Colts without him.

The San Diego Chargers have the best young QB in the league that nobody is watching.  QB Justin Herbert leads the team with the #2 passing attack in the league.  He has a big arm. He is doing it with a terrible bone bruise on his breastplate.  In contrast to the Broncos, the Chargers have a rotten defense. Outside of being the landing spot for DE Khalil Mack and his 5 sacks in 5 games so far… They are desperately missing LB Joey Bosa who seems to be what this defense was built around.  The result is a very below average defense that gives up yards and points like candy to trick or treaters.  

The Broncos and Chargers are the ultimate question of opposite strengths and weaknesses.  One good on D the other good on offense and vice a versa.  Based on NFl rules alone, oftentimes the good offense will win out… but with a bruised quarterback on that good offense?... Everything is up in the air.

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RECENT FORM

DEN: 2-3, 1-4 ATS, 1-4 O/U, 0-2 on the road.

LAC: 3-2, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U, 1-1 at home.

 

The Broncos came out of Week 5 31st in scoring with only 15 points per game, 18th in total yards with 343.6, 19th in passing yards with 231 per game, and 19th in rushing yards with 112.6

The Chargers came out of Week 5 9th in points with 24.4 per game, 5th in total yards with 390.4 per game, 3rd in passing yards with 291.2 per year, and 22nd in rushing yards with 99.2.  The rushing yards don’t look great, but remember RB Austin Ekeler is a dual threat getting yards from the passing game as well.

The Broncos defense deserves better from their offense.  They came out of Week 5 3rd in the league in defending total yards with 289 per game, 1st in the league in defending passing yards (it helps they haven’t played a real strong quarterback yet) with 176 per game, and 15th in defending rushing yards with 112 per game, and ultimately 4th in defense of points with 16 per game allowed. 

Our prediction for Monday, October 17th is… Chargers 24 - Broncos 12

The Chargers Justin Herbert will be the best quarterback this passing defense has seen all year… and he will sneak several passes through that coverage.  On the reverse side the Broncos offensive struggles really has not been dependent on how good the defense is but how bad the Broncos are.

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The Broncos are 16-6 Under their last 22 games

The Chargers are 82-35 Under in division home game

The Broncos are 0-6 ATS off an upset loss
The Chargers are 33-41 ATS after scoring more than 24 points in back-to-back games

Broncos: QB Russell Wilson is listed as Prob with shoulder pain ** LB Randy Gregory is out indefinitely ** OL B Turner is Out *8 G Q Meinerz OUT

Chargers: LB J Bosa Out ** T Slater Out ** WR J Guyton Out 

Broncos: QB Russell Wilson, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Cortland Sutton, TE Andrew Beck, TE Eric Tomlinson, LT Garett Bolles, LG Dalton Risner, C Lloyd Cushenberry III, RG Graham Glasgow, RT Cameron Fleming

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR DeAndre Carter, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, LT Jamaree Salyer, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Linsley, RG Zion Johnson, RT Trey Pipkins III

 

Beautiful Los Angeles weather with sunshine and 75*.  It won’t matter because SoFi has a roof.