NFL: Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots Previews and Picks 10/24/2022

 

Game Time:  8:00 PM ET, Monday, October 24th, 2022

Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Where to Watch:  ESPN

FanDuel: point spread: Patriots -7.5; O/U 40.5

DraftKings:  Patriots -8/ O/U 40

Caesars: Patriots -8; O/U 40.5

Bears: 2-4, 3rd place NFC North

Patriots: 3-3, 4th place AFC East.

A Monday Night Football Matchup!  These are both teams everyone is unsure of.  Do either of these squads have their future at Quarterback?  Do either of these teams have what they need on defense?  The Patriots do have the greatest NFL coach of all time with the rings and hardware to prove it.  Also don’t these teams play against wildly unequal competition in their own respective conference and division assignments?  There are a lot of questions.  Will we get a greatest betting opportunity out of finding the answers?

The Chicago Bears are dead in the water.  The entire purpose of this season was to see if QB Justin Fields has what it takes… we still don’t know.  What we do know is that Justin is wildly athletic and won Big at Ohio State 2 ½ years ago.  At the moment he doesn’t seem very capable in the pocket…. Especially behind a terrible offensive line.  And the scrambling ability that Justion should have fallen back on when the pocket breaks down… isn’t quite there either. The Bears are on a 3-game losing streak with little hope in sight… The truth is that the Patriots are the Bears best chance at a win since last week when they lost to the terrible Washington Commanders!

The New England Patriots have a domineering coach.  You can not talk back to Bill Belichick, you can not do anything out of the “Patriot Way” which is decided entirely by Bill Belichick.  QB Mac Jones apparently asked “why?” after a command in practice.  He is most likely done as the Patriots quarterback in a way that goes far beyond just Bill’s anger.  Mac Jones is undersized with a soft arm and injured… he was supplanted by 3rd string guy Bailey Zappe… and Bailey has won 2 games in a row by big margins… taking this 1-3 team to 3-3.  I don’t know Mac Jones' future but it is most likely not back under center with the Patriots for a while.  Something everyone should be careful of throughout life is: don’t be equal to or a little less than the guy at work who makes ¼ of your salary.  You will get replaced.

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RECENT FORM

CHI: 2-4, 2-3-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U, 0-3 on the road.

NEP: 3-3, 3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U, 1-1 at home.

 

The Bears came out of Week 6 31st in scoring with 15.5 points a game, 28th in total yards per game with 293.5, 32nd in passing yards with 122.8 per game, and 2nd in rushing yards with 170.7 per game.

The Patriots came out of Week 6 12th in scoring with 23.5 per game, 12th in total yards with 354.7 per game, 18th in passing yards with 223.3 per game, and 10th in rushing yards with 131.3 per game.  These stats are confusing because they are split between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.  If we focused just on Bailey Zappe the points and passing yards would go up dramatically.

The Bears are 16th in defense of total yards with 341.7 per game, 3rd in defense of passing yards with 178.7 per game, 29th in defense of rushing yards with 163 per game, and 12th in defense of points with 19.7 per game.  The Bears are good defensively.

The Patriots are 12th in defense of total yards with 337.8 per game, 15th in defense of passing yards with 218.8 per game, 17th in defense of rushing yards with 119 per game, and 8th in defense of points scored with 18.8 per game.

Our prediction for Monday, October 24th is… Patriots 27 - Bears 17

Bet on the Patriots.  It is that simple.  The Bears don’t have an offense whatsoever.

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The Bears are 1-7 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

The Patriots are 8-5 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.

Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery, WR Darnell Mooney, WR David Pettis, WR Equanimeous St Brown, TE Cole Kmet, LT Braxton Jones, LG Lucas Patrick, C Sam Mustipher, RG Teven Jenkins, RT Larry Borom

Patriots: QB Bailey Zappe, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Marcus Cannon, Te Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Mike Onwenu, RT Isaiah Wynn

Partly Cloudy, 86*, humidity 56%, Wind 20 mph, Hot Texas Fall!