NFL: Buffalo Bills VS New York Jets and Picks 11/06/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 6th, 2022

Venue:  MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Where to Watch:  CBS

FanDuel: point spread: Bills -11.5; O/U 46.5

DraftKings: Bills -11.5; O/U 46

Caesars: Bills -11.5; O/U 46

Bills: 6-1 first place AFC East

Jets: 5-3, 2nd place AFC East

For so many seasons this AFC East matchup has been overlooked.  The Bills versus the Jets.  For a long time the Bills were terrible… for a long time the jets were terrible.  This year is different.  While we have known about the Bills meteoric rise since drafting QB Josh Allen 4 seasons ago… we were still down on the Jets.  Yet this season the Bills are predictably great… Meanwhile the Jets have built a worthy defense out of Quinnen Williams and Carl Lawson and a few other top-flight guys.  The Jets offense, while not entirely stable, has responded to the defense with enough scoring to win games.  The Great Betting Opportunity will be found in the point spread on this one. Top to bottom, experts will tell you the Bills are the logical winners… but what is the spread and where will the score go?.  Let’s check the number and make a prediction.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Green Bay Packers last game 27-17.  They are on a 4-game winning streak. They have only lost one game all season (out of 7). That was to the Miami Dolphins (remember when Tua was balling out with his new weapons?)... and that was only a 2-point loss.  So we are talking about a team that has dramatically outscored the competition this season, by 103 points. 2nd in scoring, 4th in total yards, 1st in passing yards.  A big tough quarterback… a speedy receiver with sure hands… a running game that the big strong quarterback contributes to… and a defense that is top-ten in everything.  The Bills sport a 5-3 ATS record… and that is often off inflated spreads.

The New York Jets are growing up.  They were on a 4-game winning streak until last game when they lost to the New England Patriots 22-17.  Have I mentioned that the Jets offense is not entirely stable?  At 5-3, the New York Jets have only outscored the competition by 14 points.. Not quite the Bills huh?... The way the Jets win is by holding on to the game that their own top-ten defense provides,, and trying to push a boulder up the hill by scoring just enough from their just barely below average offense.  QB Zach Wilson is not an equal to the Bills QB… the Jets wide receivers are not equal to the Bills wide receivers.  In fact the Jets win against an array of NFL bad teams like the Packers, the Broncos, the Browns (by a point), and the Steelers.  It has all been feasting on struggling offenses. My dad would humorously call them the  New York Jest!  Get it?  He may still be right, but we are close to a world with a strong New York Jets team.

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RECENT FORM

BUF: 6-1, 4-2-1 ATS, 1-6 O/U, 3-1 on the road.

NYJ: 5-3, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U, 1-3 in home games.

The Bills are 2nd in scoring with 29 points per game, 4th in total yards with 430.6 per game, 1st in passing yards with 307.7 per game, and 14th in rushing yards with 122.9 per game.

The Jets are 19th in scoring with 22 points per game, 16th in total yards with 338.1 yards per game, 14th in passing yards with 229.4 per game, and 20th in rushing with 108.8 per game.

The Bills defense is 4th in defending yards with 298.1 per game, 9th in defending passing yards with 203.1 per game, 4th in defending rushing yards with 95 per game, and 1st in defending points scored with 14 per game.

The Jets defense is 6th in defense of total yards with 311.4 per game, 10th in defense of passing yards with 203.4 per game, 9th in defense of rushing yards with 108 allowed per game, and 11th in defense of points with 19.9 points allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 6th is… Bills 30 - Jets 13

 

The Jets have won against bad offenses all season.  They have taken advantage of either bad quarterbacks or bad offensive lines…. The Bills have neither.  The Bills offense will break it open early and extend the lead late.  Bet on the Bills ATS.  There is no other way to bet this game.

 

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The Bills are 1 Over and 6 Under as a favorite this season.

The Bills are 17-6 ATS in all games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points this season.

The Jets are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog this season.

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, WR Gabe Davis, WR Stephon Diggs, WR Dawson Knox, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Rodger Saffold, C Mitch Morse, RG Ryan Bates, RT David Quisenberry

Jets: QB Zach Wilson, RB Michael Carter, WR Braxton Berrios, WR Denzel Mims, TE Tyler Conklin, TE CJ Uzomah, LT Duane Brown, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, RG Nate Herbig, RT Cedric Ogbuehi

Partly Cloudy 76*... Humidity 68%, Wind 11 mph.  Unseasonably warm.