NFL: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Previews and Picks 10/16/2022

 

Game Time:  4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 16th, 2022

Venue:  Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Missouri

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount PLUS

 

FanDuel: point spread: Bills -2.5, Chiefs +2.5, O/U 54

DraftKings: Bills -2.5, Chiefs +2.5, O/U 54

BetMGM: Bills -2.5, Chiefs +2.5, O/U 54.5

Caesars: Bills -2.5, Chiefs +2.5, O/U 54

 

Bills: 4-1, 1st place AFC East

Chiefs: 4-1, 1st place AFC West

Wow!  Week SIX and already the game of the year!  Seriously, the AFC has the best teams.  The Bills and the Chiefs are those best teams.  How Vegas came to a +2.5 spread for the home team is head scratching… Not because anyone knows better… but because it really is a guess.  Any discussion of this game MUST start with the battle of the quarterbacks.  Bills QB Josh Allen is regarded as the next best thing since sliced bread… Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is sliced bread.  If you were granted ownership of an expansion team and were given the one time choice of plucking any player off any roster to have for your roster… You would come down to a choice between these two guys and you would flip a coin. The battle will be contentious… the Chiefs crowd will be loud.  If Josh Allen pulls off what Vegas suggests he will pull off… the Super Bowl talk starts now.

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 on the season.  They beat the Steelers, the Ravens, the Titans, and the Rams.  A really interesting cross section of styles, strengths, and weaknesses. Their lone loss was to the Miami Dolphins who were surging at the time, but haven’t been since the Tua concussion fiasco that is rapidly changing the way games are called.  The Bills have maybe the best offense in the league… 1st in total yards, 1st in passing, 2nd in total points… they can hurt you.  But the story is the top-3 defense they employ.  It’s one thing to get scored on all day… it’s another not to be able to score back.  In the last game Buffalo beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3… and 2 of their other 3 wins came at larger than 20 points as well.  The Bills are for real.  Take em as such.

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.  That is really the start and finish of any long discussion.  Patrick Mahomes led his team back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Las Vegas Raiders… yes, the Raiders stink but 17 points down to a win?.  That is where tall tales start in sports.  The one team scoring more points than the terrifying Buffalo Bills is the Kansas City Chiefs with their magical quarterback.  He hits Travis Kelce, the all-pro and future hall of fame tight end with extreme regularity!  Travis had 4 touchdowns off Mahomes passes in the Raiders game… both a franchise record and a Monday Night Football record.  The reason Travis is always open is Mahomes will also hit Shuster, Scantling, Moore, Joey in the press box, and some guy named Carl.  You have to cover everybody cause Mahomes can keep broken plays alive and hit anybody.  The problem the Chiefs will have to overcome is that their defense is average to below average… except against the run.  The Chiefs D is 3rd in that category.  

The Question that has to be asked here is: Can Mahomes simply outscore the Bills with the defense that the Bills have?  I would knee-jerk think not based on the first half against the bad Raiders team… but then I would knee-jerk think yes based on the second half against the bad Raiders team.

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RECENT FORM

BUF: 4-1, 3-1-1 ATS, 1-4 O/U, 2-1 on the road.

KCC: 4-1, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U, 2-0 at home.

 

The Bills came out of Week 5 2nd in scoring with 30.4 points per game, 1st in total yards with 440.4 per game, 1st in passing yards with 324 per game, and 14th in rushing yards with 116.4 per game.

The Bills defense is stout.  They came out of Week 5 2nd in defense of total yards with 260 per game, 4th in defense of passing yards with 182 per game, 2nd in defense of rushing yards with 77.8 per game, and 2nd in defense of total points with only 12.2 allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 16th is…Bills 35 - Chiefs 21

The bet is for the Bills and I am going to personally bet TWO UNITS.  The Chiefs are great, Patrick Mahomes is great, the Chiefs fans are loud and great and a little fat.  The Bills defense though is something Mahomes hasn’t seen.  They are on top of it.  They are stopping the run, covering the pass, and rushing the passer.  It is finally time to think Vegas went too soft and bet big on the Bills on the road against the Chiefs.

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The Bills are 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after having allowed 300 yards passing the game before.

The Bills are 20-11 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

The Chiefs are 4-12 ATS in home games where the total is 49.5 the last 3 seasons.

The Chiefs are 8-2 in games where the line is +3 top -3 the last 3 seasons.

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB David Singletary, WR Khalil Shakir, WR Gabe Davis, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Quintin Morris, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Rodger Saffold, C Mitch Morse, RG Ryan Bates, RT Spencer Brown

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards Helaire, WR Juju Smith Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes Scantling, WR Skyy Moore, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown Jr, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Nick Allegretti, RT Andrew Wylie

 

Mostly Sunny, 68*, Humidity 42%, wind 11 mph.  Arrowhead will greet fall with actual football weather… soon it will be cold and dumb and the faithfull will wish their owner had the money for a roof.