NFL: Baltimore Ravens VS New Orleans Saints and Picks 11/07/2022

 

Game Time:  8:15 PM ET, Monday, November 7th, 2022

Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Where to Watch:  ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN Deportes

FanDuel: point spread: Ravens -1.5, O/U 47.5

DraftKings:  Ravens -2; O/U 47

Caesars:  Ravens -1.5; O/U 47

Ravens: 5-3, 1st place AFC North

Saints: 3-5 NFC South

An inter conference matchup between teams that have very different strengths and weaknesses.  The Baltimore Ravens have a franchise quarterback in Lamar Jackson.  The team relies on Lamar to have big games every game.  This entire season has been a game of chicken between Lamar and the Baltimore front office.  Lamar is betting he stays healthy and proves that he deserves a contract North of the totally irresponsible contract given by the Browns to Deshaun Watson (who has yet to play because of his 11 game suspension) … The Ravens are looking for a reason to be confident of giving that big of a contract OR a reason to simply move on from Lamar and build the team in another direction. After all, it is hard to justify 50 million a year with a guarantee exceeding 232 million… when you look at how poorly the Broncos and Packers are doing with their 50 million dollar quarterbacks.  A problem with coming to this decision is that Lamar’s defense is well below average… so the 5 wins are clearly Lamar’s accomplishments… while the three losses?... Those are roster problems Lamar can’t control.  The New Orleans Saints are rolling on offense despite the awkward unsettled nature of who will be the quarterback of the future.  This team is currently playing Andy Dalton, as QB Jameis Winston has missed the last 2 games, and QB/FB/TE Taysom Hill has never been more than an experiment at QB for the occasional trick play or odd series.  None of these players could possibly be the future of this franchise.  The Saints do have weapons even if RB Mark Ingram II is sidelined with a knee injury… Alvin Kamara, WR Tre’Quan Smith, WR Chris Olave, Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill.  Those weapons have lead to a team that is top-ten in every offensive category… and their defense is not bad either… the defense of the Saints does admirable in most categories EXCEPT stopping points (that may be the key category however).  The Saints are 3-5 when the stats say they should be better… and they are doing it with recycled quarterbacks.

The Baltimore Ravens won their last two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cleveland Browns. 27-22, 23-20.  The goal of the Ravens every game seems to be for Lamar to outscore the opposition as the defense is allowing an average of 22.9 points a game. Lamar Jackson leads the team in BOTH Passing Yards and Rushing Yards. The Ravens have cycled through several running backs.. Some lost to injury, some simply not productive enough… That has required that Lamar has 553 rushing yards through 8 games… That is a fair amount of scrambling.  You can’t question Lamar’s commitment to playing football with all his heart.  If he had a traditional agent (instead of his mom)... that agent would beg him not to risk his health with no future guaranteed money on paper… but that is how Lamar plays and he will keep going all out to prove his worth. Lamar’s 1635 passing yards are spread out well between lots of receivers.  TE Mark Andrews leads the team in receiving with 488 yards and is listed this week as doubtful (because of shoulder injury). WR Rashod Bateman is out for the rest of the season after having undergone Lisfranc surgery (a foot thing). So Lamar will try to do it all again… while missing several weapons.

The New Orleans Saints won their last game over the Las Vegas Raiders 24-0.  That is more of an indictment of how poorly the Raiders have been playing this season, still it is very very hard for any team to hold another team of NFL professional football players scoreless. QB Andy Dalton leads the Saints in passing with 1175 yards on the season… and he hasn’t played all the games. The Saints are an unbalanced team… gimmick player and secret weapon Taysom Hill leads the team in touchdowns with 5… coincidentally that is about how many years the team hasn’t decided to give Taysom a firm starting position.  It’s odd to see a team like the Saints keep their most athletic player on the sidelines for long stretches of the game until he is absolutely needed in a certain play or scheme.  You would think a guy with that much talent would be declared a full back and simply be on the field all the time?  He could alternate between running plays and passing plays while serving as a decoy when not targeted… but then again maybe he is only effective in small doses?

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RECENT FORM

BAL: 5-3, 3-4-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U, 3-1 in road games.

NOS: 3-5, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U, 2-2 in home games.

 

The Ravens are 5th in scoring with 26 points per game, 7th in total yards with 359.4 per game, 25th in passing yards with 193.8 per game, and 2nd in rushing yards with 165.6 yards per game.  Lamar can always subsidize the running game with QB scrambles.

The Saints are 8th in scoring with 24.9 points per game, 1st in total yards with 394.4 per game, 8th in passing yards with 253.1 per game, and 8th in rushing yards with 141.2 per game.

The Ravens defense is 24th in defending total yards with 364.3 allowed per game, 28th in defense of passing yards with 266.8 per game, 5th in defense of rushing yards with 97.5 per game, and 19th in defense of points with 22.9 allowed per game.

The Saints defense is 10th in defending total yards with 320.8 per game, 12th in defending passing yards with 208.3 per game, 14th in defense of rushing yards with 112.5 allowed per game, and 28th in defense of points with 25 allowed per game.  The stats do not look bad until you get to the points…. But why?... that doesn’t make mathematical sense?... UNTIL you look at field position.  The Saints have turned the ball over 9 more times than their opponents and the Kicking game has missed 5 field goals.  Each of those moments have meant better field position for opponents.  That frequent short field position is how a team can be 10th in defense of total yards yet nearly last in defense of total points.

Our prediction for Monday, November 7th is… Ravens 28 - Saints 20

 

Bet on the Ravens.  Vegas has given you a small point spread… and even though both teams have weapons dinged up… the quarterback where that really matters is Andy Dalton.  Andy is not immune to catching the interception bug every now and then.. And with Mark Ingram out and possibly trying to work Jarvis Landry back in?... Andy will be loose with that ball.

 

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Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.

Baltimore is 12-9 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons.

New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.

New Orleans is 9-22 ATS versus AFC North opponents since 1992.

Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Kenyan Drake, FB Patrick Richard, WR Rashod Bateman, WR Devin Duvernay, TE Mark Andrews, LT Ronnie Stanley, LG Ben Powers, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses

Saints: QB Andy Dalton, RB Mark Ingram II, WR Tre’Quan Smith, WR Chris Olave, WR Rashid Shaheed, TE Juwan Johsnon, LT James Hurst, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Ryan Ramczyk

Mostly Sunny during the day with 82* weather!  But it doesn’t matter!  Because, like a grown up organization, New Orleans has a dome.  Having a dome protects the sport being played from nasty weather elements that might make it less than fun for the viewing and betting public… It’s the sort of thing that Green Bay and Buffalo should look into.