NFL: Baltimore Ravens VS Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Picks 11/27/2022

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27th, 2022

Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

(home to the only spas in an NFL stadium!… not a whole lot of wins though)

Where to Watch:  CBS

FanDuel: point spread: Ravens -4, O/U 44.5

BetMGM:  Ravens -4; O/U 44

Caesars:  Ravens -4; O/U 44

Ravens: 7-3, 1st place AFC North

Jaguars: 3-7, 3rd place AFC South

An NFL matchup between a postseason bound team and a team that is certainly not postseason bound.  This AFC battle has “obvious” written all over the outcome.  Then why is the spread only 4 points?...  The answer to that is simply: The Baltimore defense is soft as tissue paper.  The Baltimore Ravens bask in the glory of having a great quarterback who brings them win after win entirely based on the magical things he can do both with his arm and his feet.  No one talks about the Ravens as serious contenders because the defense can and will give up untimely (4th quarter) points.  The Dolphins and Titans have the same 7-3 record and everyone takes them more seriously… The Chiefs are only 1 win better and everyone treats them like the team of destiny!  The Ravens will not get respect from fans, media, and Vegas until the defense is able to put together a 4th quarter stop.  The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted #1 two seasons ago and landed QB Trevor Lawrence.  They are still struggling to build a proper team around him… and as a result we may not have a real idea of the kid’s ceiling.  Trevor is a big guy with a strong arm… and had ANY team landed that #1 pick they would have also drafted him.  After 10 games played Trevor has 2334 yards passing with an 89.7 rating for 13 TDs and 6 INTs… he has very few wins to show for it.

The Baltimore Ravens are losing their contract extension game of chicken to QB Lamar Jackson.  Lamar is the whole offense for the Ravens and has his team on a 4-game winning streak… beating the Browns, the Buccs, the Saints, and the Panthers in that order… not exactly a murderers row… but still a heck of an accomplishment for a guy with little to no support.  Expect the Ravens to ultimately wind up paying Lamar a bigger contract than Deshaun Watson got from Cleveland… They will regret not upping the offer earlier and ultimately getting him for cheaper (just ask Jerry Jones).  Lamar leads the team in passing AND rushing has 16 passing TDs with 7 interceptions AND 3 rushing TDs… These numbers are remarkably similar to the numbers that he has shown throughout the last 4 seasons… including an MVP season. The Jaguars won their last game over the Carolina Panthers 13-3… a relatively quiet offensive day… but also a game where the defense did not drop the lead in the 4th quarter.  The defense has not gotten better, it is just because the Panthers have no offense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have only won 1 game in their last 7… and that was to the mightily struggling Las Vegas Raiders.  Last game they took a very obvious beating from the Kansas City Chiefs 27-17… the game resulted in a PUSH of the ten point spread.  The Jaguars then went on to their bye week and have had an extra week to think about how awful their season and careers are going.  Most of the time the bye week is a good thing!  It allows the coaching staff time to prepare and the nicked up players time to mend and return… In this case the Jaguars will still be the Jaguars. QB Trevor Lawrence is a passing threat, but lacks a core of quality receivers to get the ball to.  RB Travis Etienne JR would be a dangerous weapon if he had better blocking… he has 725 rushing yards for 4 TDs and 200 receiving yards with 0 TDs.  WR Calvin Ridley’s name appears on the team roster but he was suspended for the entire season after being caught betting on NFL games… he thought the rules didn’t apply since he was out rehabbing… and maybe he has a point.  Still, the point is Trevor has few weapons and subpar blocking. This is a team that can afford very few misses in the draft going forward.

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RECENT FORM

BAL: 7-3, 4-5-1 ATS, 3-7 O/U, 4-1 in road games.

JAC: 3-7, 3-6-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U, 2-2 in home games.

The Ravens are 9th in scoring with 24.8 points per game, 16th in total yards with 350.2 per game, 27th in passing yards with 187.4 per game, and 2nd in rushing yards with 162.8 per game.

The Jaguars are 19th in points scored with 21.6 per game, 10th in total yards with 362.2 per game, 17th in passing yards with 222.6 per game, and 7th in rushing yards with 139.6 per game.

The Ravens defense is 15th in yards allowed with 336.2 per game, 26th in passing yards with 249.8 per game, 3rd in rushing yards with 86.4 per game, 10th in points allowed with 19.9 per game.

The Jaguars defense is 24th in total yards allowed with 357.7 per game, 25th in passing yards allowed with 247.6 per game, 10th in rushing yards allowed with 110.1 per game, and 14th in points allowed with 20.5 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 27th is… Ravens 27 - Jaguars 20

 

Bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.  The Jaguars are particularly vulnerable to Lamar Jackson because of how mobile Lamar is.. The Jaguars best defensive look is against the run, but they will have to line up to stop the pass all day.. With Lamar scrambling out of broken plays.  Plus the Jags are at the point of no return spot in the season where they have no chance of a postseason spot.. And it will start to show in how many guys will hit the training table and drag their feet at getting back on the field.

 

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The Ravens are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.

The Jaguars are 15-22 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Kenyon Drake, FB Patrick Ricard, WR Demarcus Robinson, WR Devin Duvernay, TE Mark Andrews, LT Ronnie Stanley, LG Ben Powers, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses

Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne JR, WR Zay Jones, WR Marvin Jones JR, WR Christian Kirk, TE Chris Manhertz, LT Cam Robinson, LG Tyler Shatley, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Jawaan Taylor

Partly Cloudy, 70*, wind 11 mph, Humidity 62%