by Hollywood Sports
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my AFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Lamar Jackson contract extension drama is finally over — but will this offense operate at a higher level if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken grants Jackson’s seeming request to want to pass the ball more often? Jackson claims he wants to run the ball less -- and while that sounds nice, in theory, it may take away the aspect of his game that makes him special. The receiving corps seems improved after drafting Zay Flowers in the first round and signing Odell Beckham, Jr. as a free agent to join wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens offense was stagnating schematically under previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman — and Monken has demonstrated willingness and skill to adapt his schemes to the talent on the roster. But while Jackson’s passing skills have improved over the years, he is not likely to ever thrive with his deep passes. Will this experiment work?
CINCINNATI BENGALS: Is Joe Burrow not getting enough help on the offensive side of the ball? The Bengals lost tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Samaje Perine in free agency. They did sign Irv Smith as a free agent from Minnesota but he has never been as productive a pass catcher as Hurst has been in the league. They also drafted Illinois’ Chase Brown in the fifth round of the NFL draft — and while he has promise as a runner, he is not likely to replace Perine’s 38 catches out of the backfield. Perine averaged 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry last season while Joe Mixon generated only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite being asked to rush more than twice the time as Perine’s 95 attempts. Perine is excellent in pass protection which is an area where Brown will not possess similar skills — and that brings us to the biggest question for this team. The Bengals did improve from 31st in the NFL in 2021-22 to 15th last season in adjusted sacks allowed — but the blocking technique being taught by the coaching staff to the offensive line remains criticized as substandard by some. They poached left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. from Kansas City — but it is telling that the Chiefs led by a former offensive lineman in Andy Reid did not seem anxious about resigning him themselves.
DENVER BRONCOS: Can head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson? It is no coincidence that Payton is now the head coach in Denver after Wilson made it clear he wanted to emulate the style of Drew Brees in the second half of his career now liberated from the shackles of the Seattle run-first offense so he could finally let the world See Him Cook! Despite his claims of showing up at 7 AM in the preseason to help the coaching staff install his desired plays, it was rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett who received most of the blame for Wilson’s disastrous season where he produced career-lows in most QB categories. Payton was just the man who could get Wilson’s career back on track — even if that meant, unironically, embracing the schemes of Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was Enemy Number One in the Let Russ Cook extended cinematic universe. Payton faces a dilemma that only a time machine or a lobotomy can fix. He could install an offense similar to what was working with Brees in the twilight of his career — but does Wilson have the vision and the on-the-field smarts to replicate what Brees was doing in operating that quick strike offense out of the shotgun? Wilson has never had a similar accuracy as Brees either. Instead, Payton could revert to schemes from which Wilson had success in Seattle (see Schottenheimer, Brian) — but does the 34-year-old have enough juice left in his legs to be a legitimate threat on the ground? Wilson’s success was as an improvising jazz artist — and here comes Payton as a prog rock artist who would meet with Brees for hours the night before the game to fine-tune the hours of game planning that had already been invested into the week to coordinate final decisions.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: After a big leap last year after the Urban Meyer disaster when they finished 3-14, is this a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory? All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seems as if the “plan” is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Can the defending Super Bowl champions maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January? With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs are replacing eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark (and now Chris Jones is holding out). On the other hand, perhaps this organization is successfully rebuilding on the run by getting younger at wide receiver and on defense.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: After making the playoffs the previous year, was the Raiders’ 6-11 record a reflection of bad luck — or is it a harbinger of things to come in head coach Josh McDaniels’ second season? On the one hand, the Raiders had a 3-9 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -13.1 net YPG — their Pythagorean win total was 7.9. They blew four games after holding a double-digit lead — and six of their losses came after holding a lead by a touchdown or more. This begs the question if there is a deeper problem regarding culture under McDaniels. The former New England offensive coordinator had culture problems when he was briefly the head coach in Denver. McDaniels had communication issues with some Broncos players and he was too rigid with his management style. He may not have learned from his mistakes in his first head coaching stint. On the other hand, this is not a great roster in Las Vegas. The Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock regime was a disaster with a bevy of high draft picks already busts. Unfortunately for Raiders’ fans, new general manager Dave Ziegler may be making similar mistakes by over-drafting players from name college programs or the signing of free agent pass rusher Chandler Jones last summer. The 33-year-old had only 4.5 sacks last year.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is Brandon Staley really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams? Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just how much blame should Matt Patricia and Joe Judge be blamed for the underwhelming Patriots offense that ranked 26th in the NFL by generating only 314.6 total Yards-Per-Game? While head coach Bill Belichick did not assign job titles, Patricia seemed to serve as the offensive coordinator who called the plays and Judge was the quarterbacks coach. I’m no fan of either coach — I’m agnostic on Judge while having animus towards Patricia regarding how he handled the allegations against him regarding sexual misconduct. However, I found the criticisms of both of them as unqualified for their jobs as lazy, and misunderstanding the role they both have. Belichick was a wide receivers coach before moving to the defensive side of the ball — he thinks that coaches coach and that understanding football requires understanding both sides of the ball. And while the current zeitgeist glamorizes the offensive coaches who deploy laminated play-calling sheets the size of a Greek restaurant menu, that is not the only way to oversee an effective offense. Many coaches privilege the ability to understand and execute offensive plays as more important as the diversity of a play-calling sheet — and it is fair to say that Belichick falls into that category. But now with Patricia banished and Judge back to the catch-all assistant head coach designation this season after Belichick tapped Bill O’Brien to once again serve as his head coach, the onus now falls on quarterback Mac Jones in his third year in the NFL. The idea is that reuniting Jones with his offensive coordinator at Alabama will solve the momentary bump in his career trajectory. But what if Jones simply doesn’t have what it takes?
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Is this team being underrated by the failure to appreciate simply how important T.J. Watt is to this team? The Steelers had a 1-6 record in the seven games Watt missed in his opening week injury — but they posted an 8-2 record when he was healthy and on the field. Their improvement in the second half of the season also coincided with rookie Kenny Pickett developing at quarterback as he started the final 12 games of the season. In his final eight starts, Pickett threw only one interception.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my AFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Lamar Jackson contract extension drama is finally over — but will this offense operate at a higher level if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken grants Jackson’s seeming request to want to pass the ball more often? Jackson claims he wants to run the ball less -- and while that sounds nice, in theory, it may take away the aspect of his game that makes him special. The receiving corps seems improved after drafting Zay Flowers in the first round and signing Odell Beckham, Jr. as a free agent to join wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens offense was stagnating schematically under previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman — and Monken has demonstrated willingness and skill to adapt his schemes to the talent on the roster. But while Jackson’s passing skills have improved over the years, he is not likely to ever thrive with his deep passes. Will this experiment work?
CINCINNATI BENGALS: Is Joe Burrow not getting enough help on the offensive side of the ball? The Bengals lost tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Samaje Perine in free agency. They did sign Irv Smith as a free agent from Minnesota but he has never been as productive a pass catcher as Hurst has been in the league. They also drafted Illinois’ Chase Brown in the fifth round of the NFL draft — and while he has promise as a runner, he is not likely to replace Perine’s 38 catches out of the backfield. Perine averaged 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry last season while Joe Mixon generated only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite being asked to rush more than twice the time as Perine’s 95 attempts. Perine is excellent in pass protection which is an area where Brown will not possess similar skills — and that brings us to the biggest question for this team. The Bengals did improve from 31st in the NFL in 2021-22 to 15th last season in adjusted sacks allowed — but the blocking technique being taught by the coaching staff to the offensive line remains criticized as substandard by some. They poached left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. from Kansas City — but it is telling that the Chiefs led by a former offensive lineman in Andy Reid did not seem anxious about resigning him themselves.
DENVER BRONCOS: Can head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson? It is no coincidence that Payton is now the head coach in Denver after Wilson made it clear he wanted to emulate the style of Drew Brees in the second half of his career now liberated from the shackles of the Seattle run-first offense so he could finally let the world See Him Cook! Despite his claims of showing up at 7 AM in the preseason to help the coaching staff install his desired plays, it was rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett who received most of the blame for Wilson’s disastrous season where he produced career-lows in most QB categories. Payton was just the man who could get Wilson’s career back on track — even if that meant, unironically, embracing the schemes of Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was Enemy Number One in the Let Russ Cook extended cinematic universe. Payton faces a dilemma that only a time machine or a lobotomy can fix. He could install an offense similar to what was working with Brees in the twilight of his career — but does Wilson have the vision and the on-the-field smarts to replicate what Brees was doing in operating that quick strike offense out of the shotgun? Wilson has never had a similar accuracy as Brees either. Instead, Payton could revert to schemes from which Wilson had success in Seattle (see Schottenheimer, Brian) — but does the 34-year-old have enough juice left in his legs to be a legitimate threat on the ground? Wilson’s success was as an improvising jazz artist — and here comes Payton as a prog rock artist who would meet with Brees for hours the night before the game to fine-tune the hours of game planning that had already been invested into the week to coordinate final decisions.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: After a big leap last year after the Urban Meyer disaster when they finished 3-14, is this a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory? All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seems as if the “plan” is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Can the defending Super Bowl champions maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January? With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs are replacing eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark (and now Chris Jones is holding out). On the other hand, perhaps this organization is successfully rebuilding on the run by getting younger at wide receiver and on defense.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: After making the playoffs the previous year, was the Raiders’ 6-11 record a reflection of bad luck — or is it a harbinger of things to come in head coach Josh McDaniels’ second season? On the one hand, the Raiders had a 3-9 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -13.1 net YPG — their Pythagorean win total was 7.9. They blew four games after holding a double-digit lead — and six of their losses came after holding a lead by a touchdown or more. This begs the question if there is a deeper problem regarding culture under McDaniels. The former New England offensive coordinator had culture problems when he was briefly the head coach in Denver. McDaniels had communication issues with some Broncos players and he was too rigid with his management style. He may not have learned from his mistakes in his first head coaching stint. On the other hand, this is not a great roster in Las Vegas. The Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock regime was a disaster with a bevy of high draft picks already busts. Unfortunately for Raiders’ fans, new general manager Dave Ziegler may be making similar mistakes by over-drafting players from name college programs or the signing of free agent pass rusher Chandler Jones last summer. The 33-year-old had only 4.5 sacks last year.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is Brandon Staley really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams? Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just how much blame should Matt Patricia and Joe Judge be blamed for the underwhelming Patriots offense that ranked 26th in the NFL by generating only 314.6 total Yards-Per-Game? While head coach Bill Belichick did not assign job titles, Patricia seemed to serve as the offensive coordinator who called the plays and Judge was the quarterbacks coach. I’m no fan of either coach — I’m agnostic on Judge while having animus towards Patricia regarding how he handled the allegations against him regarding sexual misconduct. However, I found the criticisms of both of them as unqualified for their jobs as lazy, and misunderstanding the role they both have. Belichick was a wide receivers coach before moving to the defensive side of the ball — he thinks that coaches coach and that understanding football requires understanding both sides of the ball. And while the current zeitgeist glamorizes the offensive coaches who deploy laminated play-calling sheets the size of a Greek restaurant menu, that is not the only way to oversee an effective offense. Many coaches privilege the ability to understand and execute offensive plays as more important as the diversity of a play-calling sheet — and it is fair to say that Belichick falls into that category. But now with Patricia banished and Judge back to the catch-all assistant head coach designation this season after Belichick tapped Bill O’Brien to once again serve as his head coach, the onus now falls on quarterback Mac Jones in his third year in the NFL. The idea is that reuniting Jones with his offensive coordinator at Alabama will solve the momentary bump in his career trajectory. But what if Jones simply doesn’t have what it takes?
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Is this team being underrated by the failure to appreciate simply how important T.J. Watt is to this team? The Steelers had a 1-6 record in the seven games Watt missed in his opening week injury — but they posted an 8-2 record when he was healthy and on the field. Their improvement in the second half of the season also coincided with rookie Kenny Pickett developing at quarterback as he started the final 12 games of the season. In his final eight starts, Pickett threw only one interception.
Best of luck — Frank.
