New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/05/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jul 04, 2025
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 5, 2025
Venue:  Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -140, Mets +120; Over/Under:  9 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -140, Mets +120; Over/Under:  9 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -140, Mets +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Season Record

New York Yankees:  48-39 (2nd place, AL East)
New York Mets:  50-38 (2nd place, NL East)

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Recent Form
New York Yankees:  3-7 last 10
New York Mets:  4-6 last 10



New York Yankees vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis


The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 4-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-39 record overall and have a road record of 22-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .786 OPS. Marcus Stroman is their starting pitcher on Friday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Mets are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-38 record overall and have a home record of 31-13. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Rookie pitcher Justin Hagenman is their starting pitcher on Friday while Frankie Montas is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 7 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates.


Yankees vs Mets Prediction

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked good in their games this season with their 48-39 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 22-22 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked good in their games this season with their 50-38 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 31-13 home record. Neither team has looked great lately as the Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Mets are 4-6, but the Yankees do have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that with their better offense. Montas is on the mound for the Mets in this one and he hasn't looked great this year as he is still coming back from an injury. He is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and hasn't been keeping runs off the board in his few starts. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 6 earned runs and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Yankees are going with Rodon in this one and he has been one of their best starters this year. He is 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. His team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the team will be looking to get him another win here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Yankees Mets Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 5, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Yankees 4 Mets 1.
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MLB Betting Trends


New York Yankees: 15-20 (-12 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 231-193 (-26.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 61-62 (-25.4 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 11-6 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

New York Mets: 123-88 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 51-38 (+11.1 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is +125 to -125. 57-55 (+7.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 8-4 UNDER against AL East opponents.

Key Injuries


New York Yankees:  C. Schmidt (SP) Day To Day - Forearm. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. R. Yarbrough (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. Y. De Los Santos (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Gil (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Mets:  D. Nunez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Winker (LF) Sixty Day IL - Side. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. M. Kranick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. T. Megill (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. K. Senga (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“It’s been a little bit of an issue for him the last few starts, just kind of recovering. Usually it comes on a little bit later in the game. Today it was a bit earlier. He was just having a hard time finishing some of his pitches, so we got him out of there.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Thursday.


“We haven’t been able to get that consistently. Petey, it feels like … he’s going to get you through six, and he’s going to go back out for the seventh.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s win against the Brewers in their game on Thursday.


Starting Lineups


New York Yankees
Jasson Domínguez (S) LF
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 3B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
J.C. Escarra (L) C
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
DJ LeMahieu (R) 2B

New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Juan Soto (L) RF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Luis Torrens (R) C
Brett Baty (L) 3B
Ronny Mauricio (S) DH
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Statistical Leaders


New York Yankees
Batting Average:  Aaron Judge (.364)
Hits:  Aaron Judge (116)
Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (31)
RBI:  Aaron Judge (70)
Stolen Bases:  Jasson Domínguez (13)
Wins:  Max Fried (10)
Saves:  Devin Williams (11)
ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

New York Mets
Batting Average:  Pete Alonso (.287)
Hits:  Pete Alonso (95)
Home Runs:  Juan Soto (20)
RBI:  Pete Alonso (67)
Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (13)
Wins:  Clay Holmes (8)
Saves:  Edwin Díaz (18)
ERA:  Austin Warren (0.00)

Managers:
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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