New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Sunday, September 12, 2021
Venue:  Citi Field, Queens, NY
Where to Watch:  ESPN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -115, Mets -105; Over/Under:  NL runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  NL; Over/Under NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  NL; Over/Under NL runs

Season Record

New York Yankees:  78-63 (3rd place, AL East)
New York Mets:  71-71 (3rd place, NL East)
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New York Yankees vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
New York Yankees:  2-8 last 10
New York Mets:  6-4 last 10

Offensive Analysis

The New York Yankees are ranked 24 in the league for batting average (.236), 22 in the league for RBI (565), 24 in the league for hits (1095), and they are ranked 10 in the league for OBP (.323). The New York Mets are ranked 20 in the league for batting average (.238), 27 in the league for RBI (530), 27 in the league for hits (1085), and they are ranked 17 in the league for OBP (.315).

Defensive Analysis

The New York Yankees are ranked 5 in the league for ERA (3.73), 4 in the league for saves (42), 4 in the league for strikeouts (1335), and they are ranked 4 in the league for WHIP (1.19). The New York Mets are ranked 4 in the league for ERA (3.73), 12 in the league for saves (37), 12 in the league for strikeouts (1270), and they are ranked 7 in the league for WHIP (1.21).


Yankees vs Mets Prediction

The New York Yankees are taking on the New York Mets in the series finale of a three-game series on Sunday. The 2nd game of this series is still to be played on Saturday with the result pending. The Yankees have now lost 7 games in a row after getting swept in a four-game series at Yankee Stadium by the Toronto Blue Jays in the series prior to this one. The Mets won the series opener against the Yankees after losing their last series to the Miami Marlins. 

The Yankees are now on a 7 game losing streak including the series opener in this one on Friday 10-3 to the Mets. The Yankees have not announced a starting pitcher in this game yet. They have slipped so much on their big slump here that they now only hold a 0.5 game lead over the Blue Jays for the final wildcard spot. The Oakland Athletics and the Seattle Mariners are also right behind just 1 game back from the Yankees as this AL wildcard race starts to heat up. The Yankees' offense has gone silent recently putting up just 11 runs in their last 5 games, averaging a little over 2 runs scored per game. They will need a solid effort from their bullpen here and they will need their batters to wake up if they plan on making the postseason yet again for another playoff run.

The Mets are coming into this game after a 10-3 blowout win over the Yankees on Friday night. Carlos Carrasco will be throwing the first pitch on the mound for them in this game on Sunday and he is 1-2 with a 5.88 ERA this season. After the team had lost 3 straight with him, they have now won their last 2 games when he has started for them, Carrasco getting credited with the win in his last start. In that last start, he allowed 4 runs, 1 ER, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 7 hits through 5 IP. This will be his first time against the Yankees lineup this season but he has been pretty solid in his recent starts. Their bats have been on and off in their last 4 games putting up 22 runs in those 4 games. They are averaging over 5 runs scored per game in that span but have actually put up 9 or more in 2 of those games, including their last game where they scored 10. Their batters might be able to take advantage of a slumping Yankees team that has a low amount of confidence right now as they barely cling to their wildcard spot.

The Yankees have some alright pitching and some good hitters on their team but they have been nowhere to be found in their last few games. The Mets are not the most consistent team but they are putting in a better effort than the Yankees right now. Until the Yankees show that they can win a game, no one wants to catch that falling knife. The value is on the Mets to win this game as the Yankees will continue to fall right out of the wildcard spot.

Yankees Mets Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, September 12, 2021 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Mets 6 Yankees 4.
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MLB Betting Trends

New York Yankees: 78-63 (-16.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 51-40 (-9.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters.
New York Mets: 71-71 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 40-49 (-18.2 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5.

Key Injuries

New York Yankees:  G. Cole (SP) Prob Tues - Hamstring injury. J. Taillon (SP) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury. Z. Britton (RP) out for season - Elbow injury.
New York Mets:  B. Nimmo (LF) Late Sept - Hamstring injury. J. deGrom (SP) Out indefinitely - Forearm injury. R. Gsellman (RP) Mid Sept - Back injury.

Players to Watch

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in batting average and RBI and he will need his bat to wake up in this game as the Yankees keep slipping down the standings. If his team is to break this slump they are in he will need to have a big game here.
New York Mets: Pete Alonso is one player to watch here. He leads his team in hits, home runs, and RBI and he will need to step up if his team wants to continue sending the Yankees into a spiral right before the playoffs start.

Notable Quotes

"I think we're beyond frustrated. but now's not the time to point fingers at anyone, and just everyone to raise their game and collectively get out of it together." - DJ LeMahieu on the Yankees recent slump as they slip in the standings.
"I commanded the zone from bottom to top with all three of my pitches. I was making them feel uncomfortable." - Rookie Tylor Megill on his performance on Friday.

Starting Lineups

New York Yankees
D. LeMahieu (2B)
B. Gardner (CF)
A. Judge (RF)
A. Rizzo (1B)
G. Torres (SS)
J. Gallo (LF)
G. Sanchez (C)
G. Urshela (3B)
J. Montgomery (P)
New York Mets
J. Villar (3B)
F. Lindor (SS)
M. Conforto (RF)
P. Alonso (1B)
J. Baez (2B)
J. McNeil (LF)
K. Pillar (CF)
J. McCann (C)
T. Megill (P)

Statistical Leaders

New York Yankees
Batting Average:  A. Judge (.292)
Hits:  D. LeMahieu (143)
Home Runs:  J. Gallo (32)
RBI:  A. Judge (76)
Stolen Bases:  T. Wade (13)
Wins:  G. Cole (14)
Saves:  A. Chapman (25)
ERA:  L. Gil (1.42)
New York Mets
Batting Average:  B. Nimmo (.302)
Hits:  P. Alonso (129)
Home Runs:  P. Alonso (32)
RBI:  P. Alonso (85)
Stolen Bases:  J. Baez (16)
Wins:  M. Stroman (9)
Saves:  E. Diaz (28)
ERA:  J. deGrom (1.08)
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (4th season)
New York Mets: Luis Rojas (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

81 degrees F mostly sunny, 59% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds E.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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