New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 7/30/21

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Jul 29, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Venue: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to watch:
WPIX, Bally Sports Florida

Projected lineups


DJ LeMahieu (R) 1B

Gleyber Torres (R) SS

Rougned Odor (L) 2B

Giancarlo Stanton (R) OF

Joey Gallo (R) RF

Gary Sanchez (R) C

Brett Gardner (L) LF

Gio Urshela (R) 3B

Jameson Taillon (R) P


Miguel Rojas (R) SS

Isan Diaz (L) 2B

Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B

Adam Duvall (R) RF

Brian Anderson (R) 3B

Jorge Alfaro (R) C

Lewis Brinson (R) LF

Magneuris Sierra (L) CF

Zach Thompson (R) P

Odds at USA Sportsbooks

Yankees -145, Marlins +125; Over 8 -120, Under 8 +100

Recent form

Yankees: Have lost four of their last seven after winning four straight.

Marlins: Have won three of four, including two wins against the Padres.

Yankees - Marlins Preview

A hearty thank you to the New York Yankees for making things enjoyable all of a sudden.

The Yankees made one of the biggest splashes prior to the MLB Trade Deadline by acquiring All-Star outfielder Joey Gallo from the Texas Rangers in exchange for four prospects.

This is New York's biggest attempt in getting back into the playoff chase, and Gallo is expected to make his Yankees debut Friday against the Miami Marlins.

"Now that the trade is done, we're incredibly excited to add two players that are really going to help us," said Yankees manager Aaron Boone. "I'm thrilled that he is joining us. A tremendous player."

Gallo has never been the best contact hitter, but he's certainly one of the best power hitters in the game joining a group with the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Gallo has 25 homers in 95 games while batting .223. He has two 40-homer seasons in his seven-year career.

It might be a tough hill to climb for the Yankees as far as the AL East goes; they trail the first-place Boston Red Sox by 8.5 games while also looking up at the Tampa Bay Rays and their six-game lead for second in the division.

There is hope for the wild card, though. The Oakland A's hold a 2.5-game lead on the Yankees, who trail the Seattle Mariners by a half-game. Tampa Bay, the reigning American League champs at 60-42, hold the top wild card. Tampa Bay clobbered New York 14-0 at Tropicana Field on Thursday thanks to a 10-run sixth inning, despite 10 strikeouts from Gerrit Cole in 5.1 IP.

Maybe that's why the Bronx Bombers needed Gallo? To put one run on the board?

This MLB season has been weird as a whole, but the Yankees' curious struggles have been one of them. When they took the field in April, the Yankees were expected to take that next step toward World Series contention. Instead, they're only five games above .500 with an offense that has been tremendously quiet. Judge has a team-best 21 home runs and .282 batting average, but his team-best 48 RBI is telling; they're not driving in enough. Only Judge, Stanton and third baseman Gio Urshela have at least 40 RBI.

Cole has been their only quality pitcher since Corey Kluber had shoulder surgery two weeks ago. It's been a rough go at Yankee Stadium, but this matchup with the Marlins -- added with Gallo's arrival -- could be the starting point.

The Marlins' last outing was an 8-7 walk-off loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Friday and are beginning a seven-game homestand against the New York clubs. After a surprising run to the playoffs in last season's COVID-shortened campaign, it appears the Marlins are off to another tear-down after trading Starling Marte to the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday.

"Obviously, you lose Starling, but we went out and threw up seven runs tonight, jumped right out right away, so I thought they responded well,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said following the loss to Baltimore. “That part was fine. It's always tough when you're subtracting guys and you're having new guys here, but I thought they handled it well."

Losing Marte means the Marlins lose their best player. The dropoff is ... something. First baseman Jesus Aguilar is the Marlins' top hitter at .268, with shortstop Miguel Rojas not far behind (.267). Fortunately, the Marlins have gotten a decent year from starter Trevor Rogers and his team-best 2.37 ERA. It appears to be another long endless void to nothingness for the folks in Miami.

I wonder what Derek Jeter is thinking right now. Maybe it's back to 2003 when the odds were ever in their favor of winning another World Series. And then came a man named Josh Beckett with a full list of pitches to destroy the mighty Broadway Empire. 

Now he's part of the Miami organization. The NY Yankees legends never die, apparently.


- The Marlins have lost five of their last six when the total is between 7.0 and 8.5.

- The under has cashed in seven straight Yankees games following a loss.

- New York is 1-7 in their last eight against National League clubs on the road.


The arrival of Gallo should put some juice into the Yankees lineup, as well as a wake-up call that they should be better than this. No clue how the Marlins will respond after moving Marte, but don't expect a win here; especially with how bad the Yankees lost Thursday. Yankees 6, Marlins 1.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this New York Yankees - Miami Marlins prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews. 

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's All Rights Reserved.