New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Wagers and Preview - 09/25/2021

by James Q

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Wagers and Preview - 09/25/2021

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Monday, September 25th, 2021 
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts 
Where to Watch: NESN, YES, MLBN  (out of market only)

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Yanks -105 Sox -110; Over/Under: 10.5 runs
 BetMGM: Moneyline: Yanks -105 Sox -110; Over/Under: 10.5 runs 
Caesars: Moneyline: Yanks -105 Sox -110; Over/Under: 10.5 runs

Season Record

Yankees:  86-67 (2nd place AL East)
Red Sox 88-65  (3rd place AL East)

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Yankees vs Red Sox Preview and Analysis

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The Red Sox are 8-2 over their last 10 games.  Hitting 7 Overs, 2 Unders, and 1 Push.  They went 1-1 against the Chicago White Sox (during the ten game stretch), 2-1 against the Seattle mariners, Swept the Baltimore Orioles in a three-game series 3-0, took the first 2 off the Mets 2-0.  They are on a 7 game winning streak, they are beating teams that they should beat.  They are headed for a clash with the New York Yankees.

The Yankees are 7-3 over their last ten games.  Logging 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  They beat the Minnesota Twins 1-0, took 2-1 from the Baltimore Orioles, went 1-2 against the Cleveland Indians (unforgivable, that’s why they aren’t in second place), and swept the Texas Rangers 3-0. 

This American League East matchup is the historic rivalry that epitomizes rivalry in all sports.  There have been few others like it, Lakers vs Celtics, Duke vs North Carolina, Ohio State vs Michigan.  Like all those others they matter, but matter more when it means something.  The Red Sox are in second place in the AL East with 9 games left to play… The Yankees are 2 games back in third place… the Toronto Blue Jays are one game behind that.  The yankees are in position to not only beat their hated rival Red Sox, but to also play spoiler in playoff and wild card positioning… and not just for themselves, but also for the Blue Jays who will presumably be beating the Minnesota Twins at the same time.  Two Yankees wins coupled with 3 Blue Jays wins could knock Boston back to 4th place and out of everything.  A couple wins for Boston gives certainty and clarity going forward.  It’s a tight finish and the boys down at the Bull n Finch pub will be hollering no matter the outcome.

Offensive Analysis 

The Yankees offense has been hit or miss all season.  Hot and Cold is generally not something a manager can prepare for and Aaron Boone has definitely been tested this year.  The Pinstripes are 21st in team batting average .238, 19th in runs scored at 4.37 ppg, 9th in OBP .324.  Joey Gallo is out with injury and the shine of Anthony Rizzo is wearing off a bit… this team needs wins, they need them now, and that will only come from an offensive blitz!

The Red Sox are 4th in runs scored 5.19 per game, 3rd in team batting average .262, 5th in OBP .329.  The lineup is solid.  A little short on home runs… but plenty of earned runs.  The Sox know what needs to be done. Win. Win. Win.  They can do it especially against this Yankees team.  Will they?

Defensive Analysis

The Yankees real strength is their pitching.  They are 5th in team ERA 3.74, 4th in strikeouts 1483, 5th in whip 1.20.  Those are great numbers only bested consistently by the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants and those guys aren’t anywhere near the AL East.  

The Red Sox pitchers are 15th in team ERA 4.25, 6th in strikeouts, 24th in whip.  Not as solid.  They of course make up for these deficiencies on offense… but it highlights their pressing need.  The Red Sox above all other teams need to offer Shoehei Ohtani a 10 year 450 million dollar contract.  The Yankees and Dodgers are guaranteed to offer 400 million and some stipulations that may give Shohei an 11th and 12th year at smaller dollars (taking him until 40 years old)... The Red Sox need to go all in.  It would be the return of Babe Ruth who they bungled the first time and never heard the end of.  It would mean a batter they should put 3rd in the lineup and a pitcher who should be the 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation.  It’s worth the money.


Bronx Bombers vs Red Sox Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is… Yankees 7 - Red Sox 5
This is an Over prediction.  The Yankees should win based on drama alone.  Either way the bet is Over.
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MLB Betting Trends

The OVER has cashed in 3 of the Red Sox last 4
The Yankees O/U is 32-42-1 in road games
The Yankees are 21-33 in day games
The Red Sox are 39-35-3 in home games
The Red Sox are .500 in day games


Key Injuries

Yankees:  J Taillon SP (ankle) Out, C Frazier LF (eye) Out
Red Sox:  P Valdez (illness) RP  Questionable


Players to Watch

The Yankees will start Nestor Cortes on the mound, the lefty is 2-2 2.79 ERA, 94 strikeouts in 84 IP, 1.08 WHIP.  He is the primary reason the prediction favors the Yankees on this one.  He is tough and unshakeable.

The Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta.  The 28 year old is 9-7, 4.63 ERA, 159 strikeouts in 144 innings of work. 1.34 WHIP.  He’s a good pitcher, but not against Nestor.  


Notable Quotes 

"We're in control of things,....And there's some comfort in that. It's on us, it's right in front of us." -Aaron Boone, Yankees Manager.

Starting Lineups 

D. LeMahieu, 3B
A. Rizzo, 1B
A. Judge, RF
G. Stanton, DH
J. Gallo, LF
G. Torres, 2B
G. Urshela, SS
B. Gardner, CF
K. Higashioka, C

Red Sox:
E. Hernandez, CF
K. Schwarber, 1B
X. Bogaerts, SS
R. Devers, 3B
J. Martinez, DH
A. Verdugo, LF
H. Renfroe, RF
C. Vazquez, C
J. Iglesias, 2B

Statistical Leaders

Batting Average:   Aaron Judge .287
Hits:  DJ LeMahieu  155
Home Runs: Aaron Judge
Wins:  Gerrit Cole 15
Saves:  Aroldis Chapman  28

Red Sox:
Batting Average:  Xander Bogaerts  .304
Home Runs:  Rafael Devers  34
Hits:  JD Martinez
Wins: Eduardo Rodriguez  11
ERA:  Nathan Eovaldi  3.58
Saves:  Matt Barnes  24 


Weather Forecast 

Mostly Sunny.  76*.  Humidity 52%.



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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