New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/05/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Tuesday, October 5, 2021
Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -120, Red Sox +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -120, Red Sox +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -115, Red Sox -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
 

Season Record

New York Yankees:  92-70 (2nd place, AL East)
Boston Red Sox:  92-70 (3rd place, AL East)
 
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New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
New York Yankees:  7-3 last 10
Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10
 
 
 

New York Yankees Analysis

The Yankees are coming into this game after winning their series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game series where they lost 2 of those games. They have lost 3 of their last 5 games coming into this Wild Card game. They played very well in the final stretch winning most of their games to edge the Toronto Blue Jays out by 1 game. Gerrit Cole will be the starting pitcher on the mound in this game and he is 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His team has actually lost 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 5 games with him as the starter. In his last start, he allowed 5 ER, 2 of them being homers, and 0 BB with 6 Ks on 9 hits through 6 IP against the Blue Jays last Friday. He has seen the Red Sox lineup 4 times this season and he is 2-2 against them and has allowed over 3 runs in 3 of those 4 games he pitched in. In the postseason, he has been credited with 3 straight wins and his team has won 6 of their last 8 games with him on the mound. He has faced Boston in the postseason once before when he was on the Houston Astros, he played in game 2 of the ALCS and was credited with the loss as he allowed 5 runs scored against him in that one. Their offense has scored 6 runs in their last 3 games averaging 2 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 16 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 5 runs per game.
 

Boston Red Sox Analysis

The Red Sox are coming into this game after winning their series finale against the Washington Nationals in their final three-game series of the regular season. The Red Sox were down 5-1 in that game and came back to win 7-5. Had they lost they would have likely been playing the Blue Jays in a one-off tiebreaker game that would decide who goes to this Wild Card game, but they managed to skip all of that and get the comeback win. They finished the regular season on a 3 game winning streak and ended up winning 4 of their last 5 games to finish strong. Nathan Eovaldi will be throwing the first pitch for them in this one and he is 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA this season. He was credited with a win in his last outing and his team has won 7 of their last 8 games when he was the starting pitcher. In his last start, he allowed 0 ER and 1 BB with 7 strikeouts on 4 gits through 6 innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles last Friday. He has seen the Yankees lineup 6 times this season and he is 2-2 against them while his team is 2-4 in those games that he played in. The team has lost their last 4 straight against the Yankees with him on the mound and it was the last 2 games where he really got blown up allowing 9 total runs between the two games. He has only played in 6 playoff games in his career and he came out of the bullpen as a reliever in his last 4. He has started twice in the postseason, his first 2 games played ever in the playoffs, and he allowed 3 runs total between the two games. He has faced the Yankees once before in his playoff debut back in game 3 of the 2018 ALDS and he was credited with the win allowing just the 1 run. Their offense has scored 16 runs in their last 3 games averaging a little over 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 10 runs against them in that same span allowing over 2 runs per game.
 

 

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction

The Yankees are coming into this game as a slight favorite on the road here. The Red Sox finished the season playing in much better form than the Yankees did and the Red Sox scored quite a few runs in their last series. The Yankees struggled in their last series only managing to pick up 1 win of the 3 games and it was a 1-0 win too. They did score a lot of runs on the Rays as their bats have cooled off a bit. If the Yankees cannot handle the Rays, the team who won the AL East and will surely be on the road ahead for them to face in the playoffs, then they are not going to go very far in this postseason. Both of these pitchers have been good all year but both have also been exposed at times in this specific matchup. With no clear advantage there, the best bet to make in this game is on the Red Sox to win as they are the home team and have been playing in much better form leading into this game. Both teams finished with the same record so there is no way to say one is better than the other, but Boston is the hotter team right now and they are the home team too.
 
Yankees Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 5, 2021 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 4 Yankees 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

 
New York Yankees: 71-59 (-27.3 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 92-70 (-14.1 units) on the money line in all games. 19-28 (-22.6 units) on the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival.
Boston Red Sox: 27-25 (+9.9 units) on the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher. 92-70 (+10.1 units) on the money line in all games. 33-21 (+12.9 units) on the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games.
 

Key Injuries

 
New York Yankees:  G. Urshela (3B) Ques Tues - Thigh injury. L. Voit (1B) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. D. LeMahieu (2B) Out indefinitely - Hernia.
Boston Red Sox:  J. Martinez (RF) Ques Tues - Ankle injury. G. Whitlock (RP) Ques Tues - Pectoral injury. P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness.
 

Players to Watch

 
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in batting average, home runs, and in RBI. He has been having a fantastic year and he will surely be looking to carry that over into the postseason as he looks to carry his team to a World Series so look for him to play at his best now that the playoffs are here.
 
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in hits, home runs, and in RBI. He is a big part of this offense and is coming off of a game where he hit the game winning HR to send his team to the postseason here. He will be looking to carry that momentum into this game so look for him to make some hits in this game.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"There's work to do, still." - Alex Cora after Rafael Devers hit a home run to seal their place in the Wild Card with a win over the Nats on Sunday.
 
 
"We're ready to take our shot. Feel like I know we can beat anyone when we're at our best." - Aaron Boone after a 1-0 win against the Rays sealed their place in the Wild Card game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
New York Yankees
G. Torres 2B
A. Rizzo 1B
A. Judge RF
G. Stanton DH
J. Gallo LF
G. Urshela SS
B. Gardner CF
G. Sanchez C
R. Odor 3B
 
Boston Red Sox
E. Hernandez 2B
K. Schwarber 1B
X. Bogaerts SS
R. Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez RF
A. Verdugo LF
H. Renfroe CF
C. Vazquez C
C. Sale P

Statistical Leaders

 
New York Yankees
Batting Average:  A. Judge (.287)
Hits:  D. LeMahieu (160)
Home Runs:  A. Judge (39)
RBI:  A. Judge (98)
Stolen Bases:  T. Wade (17)
Wins:  G. Cole (16)
Saves:  A. Chapman (30)
ERA:  J. Loaisiga (2.17)
 
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average:  X. Bogaerts (.295)
Hits:  R. Devers (166)
Home Runs:  R. Devers (38)
RBI:  R. Devers (115)
Stolen Bases:  C. Vazquez (8)
Wins:  E. Rodriguez (13)
Saves:  M. Barnes (24)
ERA:  R. Brasier (1.50)
 
Managers:
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (4th season)
Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)
 

Weather Forecast

59 degrees F scattered showers, 86% humidity, 10% chance of rain, up to 8 mph wind speeds S.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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