New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/30/2023

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 30, 2023

Venue:  Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees +115, Orioles -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees +115, Orioles -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees +115, Orioles -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

New York Yankees:  54-49 (5th place, AL East)

Baltimore Orioles:  63-40 (1st place, AL East)

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New York Yankees:  4-6 last 10

Baltimore Orioles:  6-4 last 10

The Yankees are entering this series off a win and split their 2-game series against the New York Mets 1-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-49 record overall and have a road record of 22-25. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Orioles on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. They also lost the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Clarke Schmidt is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Luis Severino is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 2-4 with a 6.46 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 5 Ks on 8 hits through 5.2 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Orioles are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 63-40 record overall and have a home record of 31-20. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. They also won the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Tyler Wells is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Dean Kremer is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 10-4 with a 4.59 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 3 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings played against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The current betting odds have the Orioles listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Orioles have been rolling all season with a really good offense and the best record in the AL East now that they have passed the Rays. The Yankees have been doing the opposite lately as they were in 3rd place in the AL East for a lot of the season but now find themselves in last and the Orioles will be looking to keep their lead at home here and extend it even more over the Rays. The Orioles have had a better offense than the Yankees have had all season but the Yankees have had better pitching. The Orioles can take advantage of this pitching matchup though as the Yankees are going with Severino and he has been giving up a ton of runs in his starts lately. It has become a common theme this season for him to give up so many runs in his starts and the Orioles have a really good offense that will take advantage of any players they get into scoring position. The Orioles also have Kremer on the mound here and he has been a bit up and down this season but he does lead the starters with 10 wins this year and has also been pitching really well lately, not giving up many runs in his last few starts. The Orioles have been really hot for a while now and have had a stronger offense than the Yankees all season but now that they have the better pitching matchup here too, the Orioles will definitely take advantage at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Orioles to win this game.

Yankees Orioles Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 30, 2023 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Orioles 5 Yankees 2.

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New York Yankees: 23-27 (-9 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 15-27 (-13 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 29-18 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150. LUIS SEVERINO is 14-8 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150. 

Baltimore Orioles: 63-40 (+26.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 23-10 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 19-10 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5. 23-13 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175.

New York Yankees:  F. Montas (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. L. Gil (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. J. Trevino (C) out for season - Wrist. J. Donaldson (3B) out for season - Calf. N. Cortes Jr. (RP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. J. Loaisiga (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. J. Cordero (RP) out for season - Suspension. R. Weber (RP) Mid Aug - Forearm. L. Trivino (RP) out for season - Elbow. S. Effross (RP) out for season - Elbow.

Baltimore Orioles:  C. Mullins (CF) Early Aug - Groin. A. Hicks (CF) Early Aug - Hamstring. A. Voth (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. M. Givens (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. K. Akin (RP) Early Aug - Back. D. Tate (RP) Early Aug - Forearm. J. Means (SP) Early Sept - Elbow.

“A really big outing for him and us. It’s not been an easy road here since spring training and trying to get back. I think that’s hurt because he wants to be out there. He knows he was brought here to be a big, big part of this team and it took longer for him to get back than he would have liked and I think that ate at him a lot. But he’s here now and hopefully he continues to build momentum off this one.”- Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Wednesday.

“Defense won us the game. Adam Frazier, diving play off Rizz. Santander with a great diving catch. We turned some double plays.” - Brandon Hyde after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Friday.

Gleyber Torres (R) 2B

Aaron Judge (R) DH

Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B

Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF

DJ LeMahieu (R) 3B

Billy McKinney (L) LF

Harrison Bader (R) CF

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Ben Rortvedt (L) C

Gunnar Henderson (L) SS

Adley Rutschman (S) C

Anthony Santander (S) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B

Ryan Mountcastle (R) DH

Adam Frazier (L) 2B

Austin Hays (R) LF

Colton Cowser (L) CF

Ramon Urias (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Aaron Judge (.290)

Hits:  Gleyber Torres (100)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (19)

RBI:  Gleyber Torres (43)

Stolen Bases:  Anthony Volpe (18)

Wins:  Gerrit Cole (9)

Saves:  Clay Holmes (14)

ERA:  Randy Vasquez (1.17)

Batting Average:  Ryan O'Hearn (.302)

Hits:  Adley Rutschman (100)

Home Runs:  Anthony Santander (18)

RBI:  Anthony Santander (56)

Stolen Bases:  Jorge Mateo (23)

Wins:  Dean Kremer (10)

Saves:  Felix Bautista (28)

ERA:  Chris Vallimont (0.00)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (6th season)

Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Hyde (5th season)