New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/21/2025

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, June 21, 2025

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -101, Phillies -121; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +100, Phillies -120; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +100, Phillies -120; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

New York Mets:  45-30 (1st place, NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  45-30 (2nd place, NL East)

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New York Mets:  4-6 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  8-2 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-30 record overall and have a road record of 18-20. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Rookie pitcher Blade Tidwell is their starting pitcher on Friday while Griffin Canning is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 6-3 with a 3.80 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 2 SO on 4 hits through 4.1 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-30 record overall and have a home record of 24-13. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Zack Wheeler is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Mick Abel is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked really good in their games this season with their 45-30 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East and in the division race. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark too with their 24-13 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked great in their games this season with their 45-30 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They haven't been a good road team though with their 18-20 road record this year. The Mets have been leading the NL East over the last few weeks, but now they have been starting to slump and this is a great opportunity for the Phillies to retake the division lead in this series. The Mets are only 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Phillies have been getting hot now, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Phillies are also going to have a solid starter on the mound here as they are going with Abel. Abel is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and hasn't had many starts since he is in his rookie year, but he has looked great in his few starts. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start too. The Mets are going with Canning in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 6-3 with a 3.80 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. His team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too, but he did give up 6 earned runs in his last start and that won't be good against a really good Phillies offense here. The Mets also have one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, but they haven't been putting up a ton of runs lately and that will come back to bite them against this hot Phillies team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Mets Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, June 21, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Phillies 4 Mets 2.

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New York Mets: 215-195 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 97-111 (-15.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 60-93 (-17 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 31-19 OVER on the road when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 

Philadelphia Phillies: 239-176 (+9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 134-74 (+22.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 164-115 (+13.6 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 16-9 OVER at home vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

New York Mets:  M. Kranick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. B. Baty (3B) Day To Day - Groin. T. Megill (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. K. Senga (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. M. Vientos (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Side. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. F. Montas Jr. (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Siri (CF) Ten Day IL - Shin. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  B. Harper (1B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

“It’s part of 162. From the beginning, we all knew that it was going to be a fight, it was going to be a battle. And here we are, going through a rough stretch.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Braves in their game on Thursday.

“He was just phenomenal tonight, he really was. [The] strike percentage was over 70 percent. First pitch-strikes [were] unbelievable. Changeup was really good. He only threw a handful of sliders, because he didn’t really have to. His changeup was so good [with] so many right-handed hitters in the lineup. I thought he was dominant. I really did.” - Rob Thomson on Cristopher Sanchez after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Thursday.

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Starling Marte (R) DH

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Max Kepler (L) LF

Otto Kemp (R) 1B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Rafael Marchán (S) C

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Batting Average:  Pete Alonso (.291)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (82)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (17)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (63)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (13)

Wins:  Clay Holmes (7)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (15)

ERA:  Justin Garza (0.00)

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.300)

Hits:  Trea Turner (90)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (23)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (54)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (19)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (7)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Ranger Suárez (2.20)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)