New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 6/24/2022

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL

Where to watch: WPIX, Bally Sports Florida, MLB Network

DraftKings: Marlins -115, Mets -105

BetMGM: NL

Caesars: NL

Mets: 45-26

Marlins: 31-36

Things are getting tight for the New York Mets in the National League East. All things considered, they’re not in complete danger of falling off; this is still a very good team missing its two aces in the pitching rotation and things may be normalized once they get back. But it was not the best of times for the Mets in their short trip to Houston, putting up a total of five runs in two games and losing to the American League West-leading Houston Astros.

Now, the Mets have to head cross-country to take on a Miami Marlins team that is much better than their record indicates. Plus, this is going to be the second time in a week the Mets and Marlins will meet in a three-game series. The Mets took two of three over Miami when the teams met in Citi Field last week.

But it’s a tale of two different teams coming into this series, starting on Friday at loanDepot park. While the Mets couldn’t figure out the offense against the Astros, the Marlins took two home games against the Colorado Rockies by putting up a combined 16 runs after just two total in the two losses against the Mets.

After losing 8-2 in the opener on Tuesday, the Mets responded with a 5-3 loss to the Houston Yordan Alvarezes. The game was essentially over after the first inning with the Astros putting up four on Carlos Carrasco, highlighted by homers from Alex Bregman and Alvarez. The star DH added his second solo shot in the third to make it 5-1. The Mets cut it to 5-3 thanks to Starling Marte’s RBI double and a sacrifice fly from Pete Alonso, but they couldn’t add more to that.

Carrasco lasted just 2.1 innings and gave up five runs while just striking out two. The veteran’s tremendous season hit a roadblock for the first time, but primarily due to leaving early because of a back injury.

“I was trying to do my best and throw my pitches, but I couldn’t finish,” Carrasco said. “I couldn’t get to my pitches and everything was left in the zone. Every pitch they hit out, it was right in the middle because I couldn’t pitch.”

Not that the Mets can afford to lose a fourth starter to the IL, but hence why they’re 19 games above .500 and have been really good to this point. Not even they expected the Atlanta Braves to be this hot on their tail, now just 4.5 games back of first place.

But while the Mets may not even be thinking that far ahead to the Marlins, even in fourth place in the division, Miami has shown how stacked of a division this is. No one expected them to be five games under .500 and getting contributions throughout the lineup. It’s the pitching that’s been getting the love, led by Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara, who will get the start in the series opener.

The Marlins are coming off a 7-4 win against Colorado highlighted by a four-run third and three-run seventh. Jazz Chisholm Jr. had three RBI, including a two-run homer in the seventh with a Jorge Soler blast following. Garrett Cooper also homered in the third, while Pablo Lopez threw seven innings and struck out six.

“I had some great plays behind me and then the guys came through giving me the support,” López said. “Those are the little things that make you realize it’s a team effort. It hypes you up to go out and compete.”

Taijuan Walker will get the call for the Mets against Alcantara, which is no easy feat. Fortunately for the Mets, Walker has been very good this year with a 5-2 mark and 2.88 ERA. Alcantara, however, is 7-2 with a 1.72 ERA.

You have to be at your absolute best to beat Alcantara, and it’s hard to believe the Mets can do that. They struggled against him last week at home. Getting Alcantara at his home park isn’t going to be easy. The Mets losing won’t send everyone into a frenzy, but at the very least, it’ll start to make the rumblings louder. Marlins win 5-4

Mets are 8-12 as an underdog this season.

Mets are 11-9 in June and 26-24 in the month over the past three seasons.

Mets are 10-2 playing with a day off this season.

Marlins are 11-3 this season at home with line between -100 and -150.

Marlins are 9-5 when Alcantara starts this season.

Mets:
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Starling Marte (R) RF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Pete Alonso (R) DH
Luis Guillorme (L) 2B
Mark Canha (R) LF
Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B
Dominic Smith (L) 1B
Tomas Nido (R) C
SP - Taijuan Walker

Marlins:
Jon Berti (R) 3B
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Jorge Soler (R) LF
Garrett Cooper (R) 1B
Jesus Aguilar (R) DH
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Nick Fortes (R) C
Bryan De La Cruz (R) CF
SP - Sandy Alcantara

Batting average: Jeff McNeil -- .327

Home runs: Pete Alonso -- 20

RBI: Pete Alonso -- 66

Wins: Carlos Carrasco -- 8

ERA: Chris Bassitt -- 4.03

Batting average: Garrett Cooper -- .313

Home runs: Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- 14

RBI: Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- 45

Wins: Sandy Alcantara -- 7

ERA: Sandy Alcantara -- 1.72