New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Preview - August 2, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Sunday, Aug 01, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
Where to watch: SNY, Bally Sports Florida

Season-to-date
NY Mets: 55-49 (1st place, NL East)
Marlins: 44-61 (Last place, NL East)

Recent lineups


Mets:
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Dominic Smith (L) LF
Javier Baez (R) SS
Michael Conforto (L) RF
Brandon Drury (R) 3B
Kevin Pillar (R) CF
Tomas Nido (R) C
Tylor Megill (R) P

Marlins:
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Brian Anderson (R) 3B
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Lewis Brinson (R) LF
Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF
Sandy Leon (S) C
Magneuris Sierra (L) CF
Jesus Luzardo (L) P

Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Mets -150, Marlins +135; Over 7 -115, Under 7 -105
BetMGM Sportsbook: Mets -150, Marlins +125
BetAmerica: Mets -145, Marlins +135

Recent form
Mets: Lost three of four
Marlins: Lost four in a row

Mets - Marlins preview


Overall, an exciting weekend for the New York Mets.

Perhaps not a banner weekend on the record books, but Javier Baez is at least ready to make an impact.

The Mets remain in first place in the National League East, but are coming off losing two of three at home to the Cincinnati Reds, capped off with a 7-1 loss at Citi Field on Sunday.

New York hopes the acquisition of the All-Star second baseman Baez will be the element needed for a playoff push. The Mets will begin a four-game road set against the Miami Marlins on Monday, the start of a seven-game road trip.

“That’s the biggest thing that motivates me to be out there, that I play for the fans,” Baez said Saturday. “The love for the fans means so much to me. The love that they showed me tonight, it was really special.”

Baez hit a two-run home run in his Mets debut, a high fastball from Wade Miley that was destroyed to left field. That was his only hit. Baez followed that with an 0-for-4 performance on Sunday. The second baseman brought to provide an offensive surge did not show up in what was a rough day for Marcus Stroman (5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 BB).

“There was a sample today of the things that have gotten us in trouble,” Mets manager Luis Rojas said. “I think we’ve just got to be more stubborn with our approach. We’ve got to believe in it more.”

The Mets are limping in first place in the NL East, but the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have since gained ground. The Phillies are 3.5 games back and will welcome the Mets for a three-game set on Friday. The Braves are now four games back. 

New York is still without prize acquisition Francisco Lindor, who hasn’t played since July 16. They now have to wave through the weeds without starting pitcher and ace Jacob deGrom, who is out until September with inflammation of the forearm. The right-hander was initially shut down for two weeks before another evaluation kept him out longer.

The Marlins were at the epicenter of the MLB landscape this weekend, but not because they’re in the position of winning anything this year. The new-look New York Yankees, highlighted by the acquisitions of Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, spearheaded a three-game series sweep in Miami this past weekend.

Miami scored the game’s first run in the bottom of the first inning and took the lead into the eighth before Rizzo tied the game with a single. New York went on to win 3-1 and hand the Marlins their fourth straight loss.

When we got here, I told you what was going to happen,” said Marlins CEO Derek Jeter, one of the greatest Yankees players of all time. “I think we’re taking steps in the right direction to get there, but we have to get better on the field here in Miami.”

Jeter’s era was a combination of hitting the baseball for contact, sometimes power, and letting the aces take care of work. Right now, the Marlins aren’t there in either of those respects. Maybe they have something with Sandy Alcantara and his 10 strikeouts on Sunday, but after trading Starling Marte before the trade deadline to Oakland, there’s not much to be had as an eye-popping star like Jeter once was.

These next couple of weeks will go a long way to see where the Marlins are; after the four-game set against New York, they have a chance to continue to grow in an NL West road trip with three against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, and the San Diego Padres -- who now have to fight through a stretch without Fernando Tatis Jr., all while trying to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

The Marlins have combined for 13 runs in their past five games after scoring 23 in the previous three.

“I threw seven innings today, great outing by me. My position players behind me, they did a great job, too, but we lost the game,” Alcantara said. “It is what it is, and we're going to keep working hard and keep playing the game.”

Trends


This matchup has all the makings of a flip-flop depending on where the bets go. The Mets have not been a solid betting team except if they’ve been a resounding favorite; New York is 22-12 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Tylor Megill, their projected starter, has not done enough to warrant if he’s a reliable option on Monday (3-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher).

The Marlins are 25-42 as an underdog as a whole, but they are 4-0-1 in their last five following a game when scoring two runs or less. Jesus Luzardo, expecting to start for Miami, is undefeated with Miami as an underdog with the under cashing each time.

It doesn’t sound like a game that will feature a lot of runs unless these pitchers implode. The under has cashed in six of the last seven. The best bets seem like to play the under heavily, even at a total like 7.

Prediction


I blame no one taking the home dog here. The Mets really can’t be trusted until something materializes with them offensively. It may take time, but for this one game, I trust Baez and Pete Alonso to get some offense going. It won’t be a lot, but just enough. Mets win 4-2, under cashes.

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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