New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/12/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 12, 2025

Venue:  Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Where to Watch:  SNY, FDSKC

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -126, Royals +104; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Royals +105; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Royals +105; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

New York Mets:  53-41 (2nd place, NL East)

Kansas City Royals:  46-48 (2nd place, AL Central)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Kansas City Royals:  7-3 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-41 record overall and have a road record of 20-27. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Royals on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .738 OPS. Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Friday while Frankie Montas is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 5 hits through 5.2 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Royals are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-48 record overall and have a home record of 23-24. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .675 OPS. Michael Wacha is their starting pitcher on Friday while Michael Lorenzen is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts on 2 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Royals listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked really good in their games this season with their 53-41 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 20-27 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Royals haven't looked great in their games this season with their 46-48 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the AL Central in a weak division. They haven't even looked that good in their own ballpark either with their 23-24 home record. The Royals have been getting hot lately though as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games and just swept the Pirates in their last series while the Mets are only 5-5 and just lost their last series to the Orioles. The Royals have not only been getting hot lately, but they also have the better pitching matchup in this one and can take advantage of that. Lorenzen is on the mound for the Royals in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA, but he has looked a lot better lately. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Mets are going with Montas in this one and he hasn't looked great in his few starts this year. He is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA and is still battling back from an injury. The team hasn't had a ton of success though as they have lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, and he also gave up 4 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme since his return. The best way to place a bet here is on the Royals to win this game. 

Mets Royals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 12, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Royals 6 Mets 4.

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New York Mets: 111-82 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 170-138 (+16.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 10-4 (+6.2 units) on the moneyline after 6 consecutive games versus interleague opponents. 10-5 UNDER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Kansas City Royals: 190-234 (-17.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-110 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 109-167 (-12 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 13-6 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

New York Mets:  J. Winker (LF) Day To Day - Back. S. Marte (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Butto (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Illness. D. Nunez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. M. Kranick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. K. Senga (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Kansas City Royals:  M. Canha (LF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. C. Ragans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Rotator Cuff. D. Lynch IV (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Massey (2B) Ten Day IL - Ankle. H. Harvey (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Marsh (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. McArthur (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I’m proud of him. Especially last year what he went through with the injury and how far he’s come -- he’s a huge part of this team, of that rotation. For him to get rewarded, it’s pretty special.” - Carlos Mendoza on David Peterson after his team’s loss against the Orioles in both games of their double-header on Thursday.

“To turn the game like that with big swings and provide some slug for the offense is huge. I know we don’t tend to hit a ton of homers here, but those guys can hit them out anywhere. To see them step up in big situations -- Jac hits the ball harder than anybody, so we knew that was coming. And Salvy, time and time again coming up in clutch situations. It doesn’t surprise us one bit.” - Kris Bubic after their win against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jeff McNeil (L) CF

Mark Vientos (R) DH

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Luisangel Acuña (R) 2B

Hayden Senger (R) C

Jonathan India (R) 2B

Bobby Witt Jr. (R) SS

Vinnie Pasquantino (L) DH

Maikel Garcia (R) 3B

Salvador Perez (R) 1B

Jac Caglianone (L) RF

Nick Loftin (R) LF

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Tyler Tolbert (R) CF

Batting Average:  Pete Alonso (.284)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (100)

Home Runs:  Juan Soto (21)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (76)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (14)

Wins:  Clay Holmes (8)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (18)

ERA:  Rico Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Luke Maile (.375)

Hits:  Bobby Witt (109)

Home Runs:  Vinnie Pasquantino (15)

RBI:  Vinnie Pasquantino (56)

Stolen Bases:  Bobby Witt (25)

Wins:  Kris Bubic (7)

Saves:  Carlos Estévez (25)

ERA:  Hunter Harvey (0.00)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

Kansas City Royals: Matt Quatraro (3rd season)