New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/22/2023

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 22, 2023

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

New York Mets:  45-51 (4th place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  51-46 (4th place, AL East)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-51 record overall and have a road record of 22-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Friday while Max Scherzer is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-3 with a 3.99 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 6 Ks on 1 hit through 7 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Red Sox are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-46 record overall and have a home record of 26-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Kutter Crawford is their starting pitcher on Friday while James Paxton is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 BB with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 3 innings played against the Chicago Cubs.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox haven't been great in their games lately, losing 2 in a row to the A's who are the worst team in the MLB, but they will be looking to bounce back at home now that they are in 4th place of the AL East and slowly climbing the standings again. The Red Sox do have a really good offense this season that is one of the best in the MLB right now and they will also have the advantage of playing this series in their own ballpark. They have Paxton starting on the mound here and he was terrible in his last start but he has also been really good in most of his starts this season so he will be looking to bounce back here against the Mets who have one of the weaker offenses in the league. The Mets do have Scherzer on the mound here and he was great in his last start, but he has not been his usual self this season and has actually been really bad in his road starts. The Red Sox have a really good offense, especially in their home games, and they will find ways to put up runs on Scherzer with the way he has struggled in his road starts. The Mets have also been a really bad team this season with a record below .500 and their bullpen hasn't been that good lately either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game.

Mets Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 22, 2023 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 7 Mets 4.

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New York Mets: 45-51 (-21.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 5-17 (-11.4 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. MAX SCHERZER is 7-3 OVER in road games and 9-5 OVER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10.

Boston Red Sox: 51-46 (+4.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 28-15 (+12 units) on the moneyline when the total is 9 to 9.5. 20-13 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150. JAMES PAXTON is 6-0 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125.

New York Mets:  T. Pham (DH) Ques Fri - Groin. S. Marte (CF) Out indefinitely - Migraine. S. Coonrod (RP) Late July - Back. T. Locastro (CF) Late July - Thumb. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.

Boston Red Sox:  C. Sale (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Kluber (SP) Late July - Shoulder. G. Whitlock (RP) Late July - Elbow. J. Schreiber (RP) Late July - Back. R. McGuire (C) Late July - Oblique. P. Reyes (3B) Late July - Abdominal. K. Ort (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. W. Mills (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Out indefinitely - Face. T. Story (2B) Late July - Elbow. Z. Kelly (RP) Early Sept - Elbow. A. Mondesi (SS) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“I didn’t know whether to charge or not charge it and then eventually as an infielder you either have to make a decision to retreat or go get the ball. I did neither and it ate me up and that’s what caused the error.” - Pete Alonso after their loss against the White Sox in their game on Thursday.

“He’s got good stuff. He was able to use the sinker in after slowing them down, and we didn’t do much.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the A’s in their game on Tuesday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF

Tommy Pham (R) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Francisco Alvarez (R) DH

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Mark Canha (R) RF

Omar Narvaez (L) C

Rob Refsnyder (R) LF

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Justin Turner (R) 1B

Rafael Devers (L) 3B

Adam Duvall (R) CF

Alex Verdugo (L) RF

Enrique Hernandez (R) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Yu Chang (R) SS

Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (95)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (26)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (63)

Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (24)

Wins:  Max Scherzer (8)

Saves:  David Robertson (13)

ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Batting Average:  Masataka Yoshida (.317)

Hits:  Masataka Yoshida (104)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (23)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (73)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (17)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (7)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (20)

ERA:  Chris Martin (1.52)

Managers:

New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)

Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (5th season, 3rd consecutive)