New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/21/2025

Game Time: 6:45 pm ET, Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +124, Red Sox -148; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +125, Red Sox -150; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +125, Red Sox -150; Over/Under:  8 runs

New York Mets:  29-19 (2nd place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  24-25 (2nd place, AL East)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  4-6 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 29-19 record overall and have a road record of 12-14. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Mets lost the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .741 OPS. Clay Holmes is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Tylor Megill is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-4 with a 3.74 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 4 Ks on 4 hits through 2.2 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 24-25 record overall and have a home record of 13-11. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Red Sox won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .748 OPS. Walker Buehler is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Garrett Crochet is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 4-3 with a 2.00 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 8 strikeouts on 7 hits through 7 innings played against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox haven't looked great in their games this season with their 24-25 record overall, but that record still has them right near the top of their division as most of the teams in it have been struggling. They have looked a bit better in their own ballpark though, going 13-11 in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked really good in their games this season with their 29-19 record overall which has them right near the top of their division, but not good enough to be right at the top. They haven't been a great road team either with their 12-14 road record this season. Neither team has looked great lately as the Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are 4-6, but the Red Sox did take the 1st game of this series and they have the better pitching matchup here. Crochet is on the mound here and he has been great for the Red Sox this season as he is 4-3 with a 2.00 ERA. His team hasn't had a ton of success with him lately, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and giving up few runs has been a common theme for him going back to last season. Megill is on the mound for the Mets and he hasn't been bad this year, but he is 3-4 with a 3.74 ERA and hasn't been at his best lately. He gave up 4 earned runs in his last start and the team hasn't been finding success with him either, losing the last 4 games he started in. The Red Sox haven't been great lately, but they are starting to play better now and can take advantage of this better pitching matchup at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Mets Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, May 21, 2025 (6:45 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Mets 3.

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New York Mets: 13-6 (+5 units) on the moneyline vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game. 27-23 (+4.4 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. 21-17 (+4.6 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. 37-20 OVER as an underdog of +125 to +175. 

Boston Red Sox: 95-86 (-26.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 89-95 (-29 units) on the moneyline in home games. 138-139 (-13.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 39-24 OVER at home vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 

New York Mets:  J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Side. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. F. Montas Jr. (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Siri (CF) Ten Day IL - Shin. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. T. Houck (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. R. Gonzalez (1B) Ten Day IL - Back. W. Buehler (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. T. Casas (1B) Ten Day IL - Knee. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Pectoral. C. Murphy (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Yoshida (LF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. Z. Penrod (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We’ll talk to him about it. Tonight, obviously, if someone gets a hold of one and knows when he gets it, it’s Juan. He thought he had it. With the wind and all that, in this ballpark -- anywhere, in any one, but particularly in this one with that wall right there -- you’ve got to get out of the box. Yeah, we’ll discuss that.” - Carlos Mendoza on Juan Soto after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Monday.

“Hell of a job by the guys. Just a good ballgame all around. Scoring early I think was huge, very important for the team, for Hunter [Dobbins] going out there. So, well-played game. Well-played game all around.” - Ramon Vazquez after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Monday.

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Mark Vientos (R) DH

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Rafael Devers (L) DH

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Nick Sogard (S) 1B

David Hamilton (L) 2B

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Batting Average:  Pete Alonso (.301)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (53)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (9)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (37)

Stolen Bases:  Luisangel Acuña (10)

Wins:  Griffin Canning (5)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (10)

ERA:  Brandon Waddell (0.00)

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.308)

Hits:  Alex Bregman (57)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (11)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (38)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (12)

Wins:  Walker Buehler (4)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (7)

ERA:  Luis Guerrero (0.00)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)