New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers Previews and Picks 10/02/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 2nd, 2022

Venue:  Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Pennsylvania - It seems silly for the Steelers to play somewhere NOT called Heinz Field.  Sad really.  But the times they are a’ Changin

Where to Watch:  CBS

 

FanDuel: point spread: Jets +3, Steelers -3; O/U 41.5

DraftKings: 

BetMGM: Jets +3, Steelers -3; O/U 41.5

Caesars: Jets +3, Steelers -3; O/U 41.5

 

Jets: 1-2, tied for last place, AFC EAST

Steelers: 1-2, tied for last place AFC North

An AFC battle between the East and the North.  Both teams in this matchup have tons of unanswered questions on the roster.  Both teams are 1-2.  The difference is that the Steelers have been good for years and years… while the Jets have been bad for years and years.  Will this trend carry over?  Neither team is solid at the quarterback position.  Neither team will be done building their roster for years to come…. It may just all come down to pass rush.  Let’s check the numbers and averages and make a real deal Freeman McNeil bet.

The New York Jets lost Week 3 to the Cincinnati Bengals 27-12.  It was my most successful prediction.  (I predicted 28 - 14).  It was an easy win for the Bengals ATS. It also gave the Jets their second loss while giving the Bengals their first win… so now those two times are tied.  I would bet you the Bengals finish 5-6 wins above the Jets when the dust settles on this season… but we will see.  The good feelings the Jets built in Game 2 when they got a win… do not carry over to the Bengals game.  No one should care too much about fantasy points but if you had Jets QB Joe Flacco you would have received a dreadful 7.4 fantasy points… Bengals QB Joe Burrow produced 22.9 fantasy points.  The Jets floundered all over the field. They didn’t look to be on the same page in the passing game… and they did not get the running game going.  Finishing with 12 points was actually pretty surprising considering the play on display.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are mired in the biggest question mark of their last 14+ years:  Who should they start at quarterback? QB Mitch Trubisky has the job in name only and only for a little while… we know this because he orchestrated three punts in the first three drives of the game for a total of only 54 yards gained.  Head Coach Mike Tomlin keeps saying “I have no plans to switch to rookie QB Kenny Pickett”... Even though Kenny was the Steelers first round draft pick.  Speculation is on that maybe Tomlin wants to wait until Mitch Trubisky loses the locker room so the team will be united in the eventual switch.  But that also means a lost season.  Plus Kenny Pickett has those painfully small hands!  Really funny, awfully small hands.  The Pittsburgh defense is missing star pass rusher TJ Watt to injury and that is making a HUGE difference.  In my closing prediction for the Steelers last season I implored the team to trade TJ Watt for younger cheaper pieces to build around whoever they get to be the new quarterback… I hate to say I told you so… But c’mon Man.  The Steelers lost to the Cleveland Browns 29-17 who are also playing with an eventual back-up quarterback when the Browns sexual predator is eligible to play.

Neither of these teams are playing well this season.  Neither team has gotten to where they wanted the draft to get them. Neither team has gotten anywhere near fan expectations.

 

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RECENT FORM

NYJ: 1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U, 1-0 on the road.

PIT: 1-2, 1-1-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U, 0-1 at home.

 

The New York Jets came out of Week 3 with the oddest numbers anywhere:  21st in scoring with 17.3 points per game, 9th in total yards with 370 per game, 5th in passing yards with 286 per game, and 26th in rushing yards with 84 per game.  If this team could find a running game… could they be good?

The Pittsburgh Steeler came out of Week 3 with: 19th in scoring with 18 points per game, 31st in total yards with 272.7 yards per game, 28th in passing yards with 182.7 yards per game, 23rd in rushing with 90 rushing yards per game.

The New York Jets came out of Week 3 with average (yet encouraging defensive numbers): 15th in total yards allowed with 336.3 per game, 16th in passing yards allowed with 231 per game, 14th in rushing yards allowed with 105.3 per game, and 27th in points allowed with 27 per game.  These numbers suggest that a better running game would lead to a better rested defense… which would lead to better performance in the Red Zone….. It also suggests that they may need a better defensive plan period.

The Pittsburgh Steelers came out of Week 3: 24th in total yards allowed with 394.7 yards per game, 22nd in passing yards defense with 252 per game, 28th in rushing defense with 142.7 yards per game, and 18th in points scored with 22 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 2nd is… Jets 21 - Steelers 17

The bet is for the Jets.  It is that simple.  You get 3 points in your pocket and you will get the win.  Why?... well, the only reason Mitch Trubisky got another job is because of his big arm… and the Steelers are 31st in total yards and 28th in passing yards.  Mitch Trubisky’s big arm simply does not make up for his empty head.  You can BET ON THIS. You should BET ON THIS.  The Steelers are unimpressive and we won’t know until they make the quarterback switch… which they want to do.

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Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.

The Jets are 12-21 as an underdog ATS the last 3 seasons.

 

Jets: G Fant (knee) Out ** QB Zach Wilson Prob ** LB Q Williams (ankle) Quest ** WR G Wilson (ribs) Quest ** 

Steelers: S M Fitzpatrick Quest ** CB A Witherspoon Quest ** LB TJ Watt Out ** 

Jets: QB Joe Flacco, RB Michael Carter, WR Elijah Moore, WR Garrett Wilson, TE Tyler Conklin, TE CJ Uzomah, LT George Fant, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, RT Max Mitchell

Steelers: QB Mitch Trubinsky, RB Najee Harris, WR Chase Claypool, WR Diontae Johnson, TE Zach  Gentry, TE Pat Freiermuth, LT Dan Moore Jr, LG Kevin Dotson, C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, RT Chukwuma Okofor