New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Preview - 10/16/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00  pm ET,  Sunday, October 16th, 2021

Venue:  Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Where to Watch:  CBS

 

BetMGM:  Spread: Jets +7, Packers -7; O/U 46

Caesars: Spread:  Jets +7, Packers -7; O/U 46

FanDuel: Spread: Jets +7, Packers -7; O/U 46.5

 

 

Jets: 3-2 AFC East

Packers: 3-2 NFC North

A little AFC vs NFC action.  The New York Jets are this year’s surprise.  They are getting SOME wins done.  Something the Jets have not done in recent years.  They had some help… Let’s not pretend that facing the Dolphins with Tua at Quarterback wasn’t some help. Yet we also can’t pretend that the offense AND the defense aren’t much better than they have been in the bad old days.  They are.  The Green Bay Packers are not a surprise.  Their quarterback Aaron Rodgers has somehow found a way to stick his nose further in the air than in years past… Maybe it has something to do with $50 million dollars a year.  Rodgers does not like being saddled with rookie wide receivers while his best receiver has left for Las Vegas.  Rodgers does not like playing from behind or taking chances with passing the ball… the result is that when the Packers fall behind in a game they lose.  The Packers have a good running game behind RB Aaron Jones… and their kid coach has not taken full advantage of that.  So this matchup will be a great betting opportunity if we can get a handle on what all these numbers actually mean.  On the surface people will say “Rodgers is better than Zach Wilson”... but head to head, team vs team may be a different story.  The Jets are 2-0 on the road, the Packers are 2-0 at home.  Let’s check the numbers and lay a full unit.

The New York Jets have beaten The Dolphins without Tua, The Steelers without a replacement for Big Ben yet, and the Browns who are still without their scary sexual offender.  They have lost to The Baltimore Ravens who have a great quarterback and the Cincinnati Bengals who have a great quarterback.  There is an obvious trend here that favors the Packers.  The Jets defense has been phenomenal (for the Jets)... they are finally feeling the result of signing DE Carl Lawson before last season when he hurt himself in preseason and missed all year.  Carl is getting to the opposing quarterback and he is still shaking off rust.  Carl has CJ Mobley behind him in the Linebacking corps and DT Quinnen Williams rushing from the other side.  It’s a good unit and they are getting better.

The Green Bay Packers have beaten The New England Patriots, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Chicago Bears.  They have lost to the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Giants.  There is little rhyme or reason to the outcome that can be directly pointed to.  The Packers offense is low in scoring but high in yards.  The Packers defense is GREAT at pass coverage and not so good at rush defense.  The core problem that will keep this team from being a serious contender is that they score 19.4 points a game on average and give up 19.2 games on average.  That leaves very very very little wiggle room to win when the pressure builds.

 

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RECENT FORM

NYJ: 3-2, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U, 2-0 on the road.

GBP: 3-2, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U, 2-0 at home.

The Jets came out of Week 5 11th in scoring with 23.3 points per game, 12th in total yards with 356, 9th in passing yards with 259 yards per game, and 24th in rushing yards with 97 per game.  If they could find a few wrinkles to improve the run without compromising the pass… this team would be well on their way.

The Packers came out of Week 5 22nd in scoring with 19.4 points per game, 9th in total yards with 362.2 per game, 20th in passing yards with 227.4 per game, and 11th in rushing yards with 134.8 per game.

 

The Jets defense is showing a lot of promise.  They are the kind of group that is getting the job done very well and could be a solid draft or free agency period away from being top-five in certain units. They are 10th in defending total yards 320, 10th in defending passing yards with 205.8 per game, 16th in defending rushing yards with 114 per game, and the area in need of immediate improvement is in defense of points where they are 18th while giving up 23.6 per game.

The Packers defense is elite (so far) defending the passing game, but not good defending the run.  They are 5th in defense of total yards with 303.4 per game, 2nd in defense of passing yards with 177 per game, 21st in defense of the run with 126 per game, and 11th in defense of points with 19.2 per game.  The defense is holding up this house of cards.  The great benefit the Packers have in this game is the Jets do not have a good running game.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 16th is… Jets 24 - Packers 22

Yes, the bet is FOR THE JETS.  An unthinkable outcome over the last few seasons.  Yet necessary here.  You will get 7 points in your pocket which will protect you from field goal finishes… and scrum hail marys.  But the better thing it gets you is knowing you were first on the bandwagon at Aaron Rodgers collapse… which is due any day now. He is getting criticism which he hates, dreaming of a drug hazed life after football, and detests his rookie receivers.  Meanwhile the Jets have had success with both Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson…. They have good feelings  and are improving their stats game to game.

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The Jets are 3-2 when betting the moneyline for +3.1 UNITS.

The Packers are 3-2 on the moneyline for -2 UNITS.

 

Jets: OL M Mitchell Out ** T G Fant Out ** T G Senat Out

Packers: T C Jones Out ** WR Sammy Watkins Out ** LB K Barnes Out

Jets: QB Zach Wilson, RB Michael Carter, WR Elijah Moore, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Corey Davis, TE Tyler Conklin, LT Duane Brown, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, RG Nate Herbig, RT Alijah Vera-Tucker

Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Tyler Davis, TE Marcedes Lewis, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Jon Runyon, C Josh Myers, RG Royce Newman, RT Elgton Jenkins

Mostly Cloudy, 53*, Humidity 58%, Wind 13 mph.  Fall has hit Green Bay just as we thought it would.  Fans will need sweaters and hot drinks.  Players will need to break a sweat to clear the chill.